Your error is this: For most of us who decided to take advantage of the low rates, it's a 30 year mortgage. Five years isn't the test. See my earlier post on the 20 and 30 year rolling returns of the stock market.
Hi ERD50::
I went and read over your various replies. I agree with you almost fully. Not everyone takes intrinsic pleasure in paying off a mortgage. And, especially with rates that were at historic lows, borrowing for a home and then using your cash-purchase price money to invest is a reasonable and prudent financial strategy.
I, however, will make two modest counter-points. First, whether looking ahead along a 5, 10, 20, 30 or even 100 year timeline, you cannot predict how the market will perform in the future. I put this forth as fact, not opinion. I know a lot of people will rebel at this notion. And I am aware of
past performance of market investments. I'd even grant that it's much, much, more likely than not that in the future those 7% or so returns will continue as opposed to the S and P opening in 100 years at 600. But you just don't know. While you can
predict the future it's impossible to
know the future at 100% certainty.
My second point is coming from me, the minimalist. I purchased my home in cash. By doing so, I bought less home. There's a fairly famous study that showed people at McDonalds purchased 30% more food when they paid with credit than with cash. (Which also answers why some places don't want cash even when they pay a fee to Visa on credit transactions.) I think the same is true for homes. By paying cash, I bought a smaller place than I would otherwise. Therefore my ongoing cost of ownership--taxes, insurance, utilities, upkeep-are all lower and I have
that saved money to invest. One pet peeve I have when people compare the returns of borrowing to buy a house with the investment returns by arbitrage is they tend to leave out the increased cost of ownership having a larger house entails. (Edit: I note the O.P. did mention "downsizing" on his new home purchase.)
So, from a financial planning standpoint, I think
either method is defensible and "correct." I just wanted to make the point to the O.P. that he should not be upset because he knows something
today that was impossible to know fiver years ago. Thus, I made the Nvidia comparison.
Thank you for your comments and I enjoyed your well thought out and numerous posts in this thread.