Do you have a strategy for 2025?

[Closet_Gamer]

One thing I am very happy we did:

Late last year we decided to “pre-buy” several years of vacations by setting aside cash that otherwise would have gone into the market and ear marking it for big trips.

I’m currently sitting at the stern of a Viking cruise ship enjoying a coffee with DW.

Much better than watching it go down in value and not being on this cruise!

 

[audreyh1]

One thing I am very happy we did:

Late last year we decided to “pre-buy” several years of vacations by setting aside cash that otherwise would have gone into the market and ear marking it for big trips.

I’m currently sitting at the stern of a Viking cruise ship enjoying a coffee with DW.

Much better than watching it go down in value and not being on this cruise!

I’m a big believer in this approach. We actually started our retirement this way. We set aside extra funds for additional travel the first two to three years due to our pent up demand.

It was a good thing too, because we retired in second half 1999, and the extra travel budget took us though the nasty 2000-2002 bear without missing a beat!

 

[Koolau]

I missed the GLD train, too late to hop in. People who have PM must be really happy at this moment of the market.

Yeah, since I bought close to the bottom. Of course, that means it was a long wait and other things did a lot better (plus no dividends or interest in the mean time.). Then again, I don't regret buying insurance - especially when the kids were growing up. Fortunately, I didn't need it, but it was still a good move at the time. I guess we'll see where PMs go.

 

[Koolau]

I’m a big believer in this approach. We actually started our retirement this way. We set aside extra funds for additional travel the first two to three years due to our pent up demand.

It was a good thing too, because we retired in second half 1999, and the extra travel budget took us though the nasty 2000-2002 bear without missing a beat!

We knew that we would move so we set aside a goodly chunk for rehab of the place we owned (that we were moving to). Unfortunately, though we thought it was probably "too much" it turned out to be "not enough." Turns out we sold that place and bought another place that (wait for it) needed rehabbing. You can save and plan, but no guarantees that you'll get it exactly right. BUT much better to plan and be wrong than to not plan and not be able to even try to do what you want with your retirement.

 

[target2019]

One thing I am very happy we did:

Late last year we decided to “pre-buy” several years of vacations by setting aside cash that otherwise would have gone into the market and ear marking it for big trips.

I’m currently sitting at the stern of a Viking cruise ship enjoying a coffee with DW.

Much better than watching it go down in value and not being on this cruise!

Have you thought of any changes to your 2025 strategy while at sea?

 

[VanWinkle]

Why would you need a crystal ball when you have someone with the power to crash the economy telling you that it is indeed the plan?

One more time: I don’t judge this attempt to ostensibly reshore US manufacturing; I think the sentiment is admirable. But I feel that treating current situation as yet another unexpected black swan event temporarily shaking up markets, while its anything but, would be somewhat short sighted.

I currently sit on enough cash to last me 5 years + (I wish it was 8 - I will be 70 then and my SS will kick in). I also have properties in EU and Mexico - and permanent residencies/passports. I think I want to sell more equities and buy another property either in Asia or South America. I can consequently downsize my US presence and leave for greener, cheaper pastures. I probably should have mentioned bitcoin but we’re not allowed to talk it about here.

Because everything you are saying is conjecture based on your own view of the world. It is the future, and it is never certain. I also have cash to last 10 years and would need it even if the current events were different.

 

[Golden Mean]

One thing I am very happy we did:

Late last year we decided to “pre-buy” several years of vacations by setting aside cash that otherwise would have gone into the market and ear marking it for big trips.

I’m currently sitting at the stern of a Viking cruise ship enjoying a coffee with DW.

Much better than watching it go down in value and not being on this cruise!

Have you thought of any changes to your 2025 strategy while at sea?

Do NOT buy a boat!

 

[target2019]

Do NOT buy a boat!

Do NOT drink Old Spice

I was on a sports boat maybe a dozen times in my life. No chance buying one.

 

[audreyh1]

Have you thought of any changes to your 2025 strategy while at sea?

Can’t speak for Closet Gamer but I never worry about the markets or my investments when out traveling.

 

[pjigar]

Market typical prices the future possibilities. So doing nothing would be a wise idea. Having said that, we sold a large chunk of equity to fund a land deal couple of weeks back before the market tanked. Our land deal has fallen apart so I will wait for a few months before deciding what to do. One idea is to start building our next house. We will see.

 

[SnowballCamper]

The thread on Whats your biggest holding? got me to do the arithmetic and I have way more govt fixed income than I planned (over 30%). I was just managing the TSP to be 25% each of the C,S,I, and G funds. But we've slowly accumulated in the brokerage account from some pension income, and I've been rather conservative with it. So my plan is to bring the TSP allocation up to about 90% stock (C, S, &I) over the next couple years. So yes, I'm looking for the right time to rebalance, but if I get it wrong it's no big deal. Thursday would have been great.

 

[Markola]

I think a strategy is something one sets for, well, forever, or at least long run. I suppose one could have market timing tactics for any given year, but that’s not me. I intentionally built a very diverse portfolio and put most of it under Vanguard Advisors AUM, precisely so that I could/would then do nothing in times like these.

 

[steady saver]

One thing I am very happy we did:

Late last year we decided to “pre-buy” several years of vacations by setting aside cash that otherwise would have gone into the market and ear marking it for big trips.

I’m currently sitting at the stern of a Viking cruise ship enjoying a coffee with DW.

Much better than watching it go down in value and not being on this cruise!

This is my favorite response by far

We haven't changed a thing. We maintain a cash level that sees us through several years should downturns occur, but I think intentionally earmarking a certain amount for travel is a lovely and wise idea.

 

[youngr12]

I'm trading options and using profits to pick up shares of things that I like. Leaning long on almost all trades at this point. I'm also a bit long in metals, but those positions are tiny. I figure we could see a pull back if money flows back into equities.

We'll see what happens.

 

[rickstermn2]

Selling some equities locking in profits while there are still some. Going into short term (1 yr and under) CD's with a 4+ return. Letting the roiling markets do what they do and in December I'll decide what next moves will be.

I'm negative on the next three quarters and believe the market is headed for another leg down reaching a broad bear market. Most likely and hopefully wrong, but I for certain I don't think the market is going up.

 

[freedomatlast]

Bought a couple of vehicles and another property last year, so this year extra funds go into cash or maybe stock if the market decline continues far enough. Not rebalancing any existing funds. Same strategy as the last forty years that has served me extremely well. Our 2025 vacations are prepaid. Now time to hold on and enjoy the ride.

 

[HawkOwl]

I can't say that my strategy has changed much since I retired.

Stay somewhat diversified, keep emergency funds and dry powder, keep my eyes open for when something I want falls into the range that I am willing to pay, buy a little, and if there is a bigger "sale" and I want more, buy more in steps and stages. I will never time the bottom, but the investment strategy is long term.

And - be patient- and don't beat myself up over my choices.

Do you keep emergency funds and dry powder separate? It seems like the time when you most need both is the same. How do you decide when to hold on to cash to cover emergencies, and when to invest it?

 

[TheWizard]

Do you keep emergency funds and dry powder separate? It seems like the time when you most need both is the same. How do you decide when to hold on to cash to cover emergencies, and when to invest it?

I see no need for emergency funds in retirement, starting year 13 now. Any sudden expenses can easily be covered by monthly retirement income.

List two or three "emergencies" if you like, aside from job loss...

 

[TheWizard]

I think a strategy is something one sets for, well, forever, or at least long run. I suppose one could have market timing tactics for any given year, but that’s not me. I intentionally built a very diverse portfolio and put most of it under Vanguard Advisors AUM, precisely so that I could/would then do nothing in times like these.

That's fine, but how do you tax loss harvest in your taxable account then?
I'm setting up to do so, about $3-4k at the present lows. But markets were up sharply Friday so I'm waiting to see how next week goes now.

My TLH strategy has me selling recently purchased lots from three or four ETFs and then immediately reinvesting proceeds into a completely new ETF.
If markets continue to decline, I can sell all of the completely new ETF even before 30 days have elapsed and buy ANOTHER completely different ETF.
This all takes a bit of planning and paying attention...

 

[Markola]

^^^^ All of our stuff is in tax advantaged accounts, so I don’t tax loss harvest. Even if I did, I hope I wouldn’t fiddle with our asset allocation.

 

[Koolau]

I see no need for emergency funds in retirement, starting year 13 now. Any sudden expenses can easily be covered by monthly retirement income.

List two or three "emergencies" if you like, aside from job loss...

I guess there are emergencies like (in our case) one of our drain pipes broke and flooded the apartment downstairs. Before we were done, it was a total of around $12K and insurance didn't cover it. We could handle that just from monthly income and the rest from the check book.

But it looked like we would have a $30K assessment due to adding sprinklers to the building (in the near future). That would likely have exceed our check book. (Turns out the building will take out a loan and put the payments into our HOA dues. e
So emergency avoided - or at least "financed.")

So, when we talk "emergency fund" we're thinking about our GIF (guaranteed income fund) in the 401(k). So, taking from that is a taxable event. Not the end of the world but some emergencies are more devastating than others. YMMV

 

[TheWizard]

I guess there are emergencies like (in our case) one of our drain pipes broke and flooded the apartment downstairs. Before we were done, it was a total of around $12K and insurance didn't cover it. We could handle that just from monthly income and the rest from the check book.

But it looked like we would have a $30K assessment due to adding sprinklers to the building (in the near future). That would likely have exceed our check book. (Turns out the building will take out a loan and put the payments into our HOA dues. e
So emergency avoided - or at least "financed.")

So, when we talk "emergency fund" we're thinking about our GIF (guaranteed income fund) in the 401(k). So, taking from that is a taxable event. Not the end of the world but some emergencies are more devastating than others. YMMV

Sounds like we're basically in agreement that we will have unexpected expenses in retirement but that they mostly will get paid from regular monthly income.

I've got a few hundred K$ in my Roth IRA that I've never withdrawn from so I suppose I could call that my emergency fund if I wanted to. But I don't want to.

And I recall a while back on a different forum where someone said they had a financial emergency because they had to buy a new set of tires for their car. *sigh*

So it's probably best to clarify the dollar range that applies to oneself...

 

[TheWizard]

But wait, there's more!
I also do not have any life insurance, "final expense" focused or otherwise.
So when the Final Event hits for me, my heirs will have to deal with that "emergency" somehow.
I'm sure they'll be ok dollarwise...

 

[ut2sua]

I’m currently sitting at the stern of a Viking cruise ship enjoying a coffee with DW.

Much better than watching it go down in value and not being on this cruise!

If one can afford it, this is the way to go

 

[RobLJ]

I've taken some small steps over the last 3 years, to increase bond and international, which required selling gains in large US cap funds at the start of 2022, end of 2023, and end of 2024/beginning 2025. I'm at 20% US large caps, 18% small/mid US, Int stocks 18.5%, bonds 33% and cash 11%.
I also took SS in January. I was lucky to sit on 20% cash which I used to increase International stocks from 15% and bonds from 23%.
What this means is that income from dividends from stocks and bund funds + SS pretty much pays retirement essential cost + a bit (but no international first class travel like 2wice last year). For that 20% I can sell some gains or reduce stock funds or raid cash.
I notice international saving the portfolio from losses right now; we'll see if that change continues. If stocks go down another 10%, I'll use some cash to buy back and rebalance. The portfolio funded semi and full early retirement and is up about 45% since 2015.

DW's SS FRA is in 4 years, which will fund blow the dough levels I guess, so I'm starting to puzzle whether to keep the current allocation or tweak it at that point. I'm inclined to sell stocks down another 5%-8% and do a bond ladder in DW's IRA with most of the proceeds.