Do you have a strategy for 2025?

[sengsational]

I think a strategy is something one sets for, well, forever, or at least long run. I suppose one could have market timing tactics for any given year, but that’s not me. I intentionally built a very diverse portfolio and put most of it under Vanguard Advisors AUM, precisely so that I could/would then do nothing in times like these.

Yes, Forever strategies don't need to change. My strategy for 2025 is the same: rebalance to the same asset allocation targets that I've had for years. I do my own instead of using an advisor, but probably a similar result. Certainly no emotion or media driven actions. But like you, my AA is well diversified, so always something to complain about, but also robust and can benefit from rebalancing.

 

[GravitySucks]

Going to stick to my plan*.

Two bonds maturing this month were going to be used to beef up year 6 on my bond ladder now half will stay in a MM account in case I need it for the second half of the year. Oh well - 13 years and I’ve only had to sell bonds to fund life for 3 quarters so far. Can’t complain.

*Except I’m going to spend more than planned. Been living too frugal.

 

[MarieIG]

Do you keep emergency funds and dry powder separate? It seems like the time when you most need both is the same. How do you decide when to hold on to cash to cover emergencies, and when to invest it?

I keep emergency funds separate. They are for emergencies and never invested (i.e. they sit in a money market or bank account for quick access).

 

[Montecfo]

That's fine, but how do you tax loss harvest in your taxable account then?
I'm setting up to do so, about $3-4k at the present lows. But markets were up sharply Friday so I'm waiting to see how next week goes now.

My TLH strategy has me selling recently purchased lots from three or four ETFs and then immediately reinvesting proceeds into a completely new ETF.
If markets continue to decline, I can sell all of the completely new ETF even before 30 days have elapsed and buy ANOTHER completely different ETF.
This all takes a bit of planning and paying attention...

I usually do not TLH this early in the year. These stocks often rally and I expect we will have favorable tax legislation later in the year. If I had a very similar alternative security I might change my mind. But most of my holdings are individual stocks and bonds.

But easier to find comparables with ETFs per your strategy.

As much as I like tax losses, the area less desirable than smaller tax losses and way behind gains in desirability.

 

[Montecfo]

I do not hold cash designated for emergencies. If I had something truly catastrophic I could tap funds awaiting investment, sell something, credit card, margin loan or untapped HELOC.

 

[tfudtuckerpucker]

This is my strategy for 2025.

 

[doneat54]

We signed a contract to build a new house last November (Post election) and were already very conservatively set up with all funds for the new build fully market protected. Recognizing the impending shitstorm, we moved to around a 30/70 AA in the remaining portfolio and will ride it out with that. We are both retired and in our mid 60s.

 

[KiwiFI]

Sounds very reasonable. Thanks for sharing. I mentioned PMs because of negative correlation, but definitely not for everyone. Much more cumbersome to trade physical metals than stocks/bonds/TIPS, etc.

PMs are having their moment in the spotlight. Down under it isn't cumbersome at all. You can take possession of physical or just buy on account for storage at a reputable bullion dealer much like you would an equity. Failing that, gold-backed ETFs are bought just like anything else in reality.

Putting aside trade and geo-political tensions, the spot price of gold is roaring higher in part due to the record inflows into the ETFs. The US alone has seen almost 7 billion in inflows for February. The highest month since July 2020.

As an investor, the best news in all of this is that most people and the main stream media don't care.

While this is the case you want to be backing up the truck!

 

[Koolau]

PMs are having their moment in the spotlight. Down under it isn't cumbersome at all. You can take possession of physical or just buy on account for storage at a reputable bullion dealer much like you would an equity. Failing that, gold-backed ETFs are bought just like anything else in reality.

Putting aside trade and geo-political tensions, the spot price of gold is roaring higher in part due to the record inflows into the ETFs. The US alone has seen almost 7 billion in inflows for February. The highest month since July 2020.

As an investor, the best news in all of this is that most people and the main stream media don't care.

While this is the case you want to be backing up the truck!

Already backed up the truck (well, hand truck.)

 

[KiwiFI]

Already backed up the truck (well, hand truck.)

Nice !

 

[RobLJ]

I did international rebalancing about 2.5 years late.
It paid off, or I probably wouldn't post! (sarcasm directed at me.)

 

[Montecfo]

As an active investor I welcome volatility. And we have not had a lot until recently.
I sold equities tactically through the fall and bought bonds.
I have at least a four year runway just clipping coupons and watching bonds mature, selling nothing.
I nibbled on some equities today, small positions. I plan to do more of this over the coming days, weeks, months.

Stocks need to drop a lot more for things to be really interesting. This has been a pretty minor drop so far.Tariffs are the "excuse" for now but something was going to trigger a selloff.

What this IS doing I think is continuing to slow the economy which will do Powell's work for him. I think more cuts come back into the table.

Overall, I urge calm. If this market action is making you particularly nervous maybe re-evaluate your AA.

Distract yourself.Go on a hike, read a book, go shopping, have some wine, plan something. Or all of these.

Had to go and re-read what I said before.

So far, so good.

 

[audreyh1]

Just as usual, sit on my hands.

If there ends up being an opportunity to tax loss harvest I’ll take it, but that would require returning to the 2020 bottom which seems unlikely.

I should have added that we had a lot of accumulated unspent short-term funds moving into 2025. And our strategy has been to more aggressively spend it down. So far we are making good progress. Some major gifting already and we have committed to having a new house built which will soak up quite a bit more. BTD!

 

[RobLJ]

I decided to derisk, increasing bond funds and international (after neglecting re-balancing international for almost 3 years).
So far, it's like my timing was perfect. I moved part of S&P index gains in Dw's account to Misax (foreign small). It's up 31.5 YTD. And bond funds up.

None of this will continue, of course. Just a coincidence. Appreciated, though.
Between my newly claimed SS and bond income, we are earning our essential expenses and 30% more. This is a good place to be, at least in retirement. Of course bond income can go down.

 

[CalBird]

Added some PM. Fed will be forced to lower the interest rate and tolerate higher inflation. More money printing.

 

[audreyh1]

Unsurprisingly, this thread didn’t age that well. We had a very big sell off early April after this thread discussion in March, but since have bounced back to new all-time highs. It doesn’t mean that we won’t have more big sell offs or actually go into that very long awaited recession. It just illustrates yet again that you can’t predict the future. So changing your overall investment strategy in anticipation of something specific often doesn’t help. Just stick with an all weather approach, IMO, and be prepared to ride out the rough patches.

 

[RobLJ]

You can't predict everything, audrey.
But I predicted 2000 and 2008. Had I been fully invested in the S&P I would have done a bit better--not much but a bit better.
But would I have stayed invested fully? (Narrator: No.) I've been extracting more than 5%--average 5.5%-- for 7 years so it is relevant.

 

[Montecfo]

Unsurprisingly, this thread didn’t age that well. We had a very big sell off early April after this thread discussion in March, but since have bounced back to new all-time highs. It doesn’t mean that we won’t have more big sell offs or actually go into that very long awaited recession. It just illustrates yet again that you can’t predict the future. So changing your overall investment strategy in anticipation of something specific often doesn’t help. Just stick with an all weather approach, IMO, and be prepared to ride out the rough patches.

I don't disagree with any of that but as I said earlier, as an active investor I view selloffs as opportunity. And this was no different in that I made quite a few purchases during the selloff and booked some very attractive gains. Some I have harvested but most continue to run.

 

[audreyh1]

I don't disagree with any of that but as I said earlier, as an active investor I view selloffs as opportunity. And this was no different in that I made quite a few purchases during the selloff and booked some very attractive gains. Some I have harvested but most continue to run.

Yes I should have qualified for not seriously active investors.

I am deliberately not active as I prefer to ignore markets most of the time. But if tax loss harvesting opportunity appears (it would take a massive sell off at this point) I’ll take it. Also if my equity allocation gets too low, I’ll buy more.

 

[GravitySucks]

Going to stick to my plan*.

Two bonds maturing this month were going to be used to beef up year 6 on my bond ladder now half will stay in a MM account in case I need it for the second half of the year. Oh well - 13 years and I’ve only had to sell bonds to fund life for 3 quarters so far. Can’t complain.

*Except I’m going to spend more than planned. Been living too frugal.

April I sold a little bond fund and bought a little SP500.

June and July I took the bond money I was holding as cash and beefed up year 6 rung of the bond ladder and sold enough SP500 to cover 3rd Q spending.

Was expecting Aprils fall to go a bit further. Just missed on timing for Roth conversions.

 

[Ronstar]

An 85 year old friend told me "If you don't know what to do, don't do anything".
And I was burned trying to do some market timing 25 years ago.

Haven't made any major moves since, and I don't intend to do anything but rebalance in the future

 

[joejetski]

I think a strategy is something one sets for, well, forever, or at least long run. I suppose one could have market timing tactics for any given year, but that’s not me. I intentionally built a very diverse portfolio and put most of it under Vanguard Advisors AUM, precisely so that I could/would then do nothing in times like these.

Times like these? All three indexes are at or near all time highs and continue to break records. With the exception of lower interest rates weighing on CDs and cash, not sure what you mean.

 

[audreyh1]

Times like these? All three indexes are at or near all time highs and continue to break records. With the exception of lower interest rates weighing on CDs and cash, not sure what you mean.

Either way, high or low.

 

[Markola]

Times like these? All three indexes are at or near all time highs and continue to break records. With the exception of lower interest rates weighing on CDs and cash, not sure what you mean.

I wrote that on March 15, when things were getting ugly.