Dow to drop over 4000 pts and other news at 11PM

that should keep the talking heads busy. it probably won't stop them from covering the sex lives of the rich and famous, unfortunately.
 
I can almost guarantee a 4000 point drop in the Dow. That's about 22%, which has happened many times in the past. I just can't predict when it will happen.
 
4000 points? Is that all? Piece o' cake. (yawn!)

2008-2009 was a great training exercise for us and after dealing with that crash and coming out of it nicely (as many of us did), such a drop would seem like child's play.
 
Lol. For every prediction of a huge decline, there is an offsetting prediction of a huge gain. All by noted experts in their field. Agree, gives the talking heads something to chatter about.
 
Garbage, no surprise. While interest rates have an effect on markets long term, the premise from the link is inaccurate to begin with:
Are there parallels to this current market environment? Yes — 1987.

The summer that year began with a slow, methodical rise in actual rates. Yet the Fed did not raise the discount rate, even though actual rates suggested otherwise. The fall of 1987 arrived with the stock market having hit an all-time high in late August, unfazed by this unsettled condition.

As it happened, the Federal Reserve was literally forced to raise interest rates. Policymakers were behind the curve severely, just as the Fed is now. The 1987 rising-rate action caused stock prices to tumble more than 30% within two months, including a sharp 20% selloff in October — still among the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s worst one-day percentage declines ever.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)
Possible causes for the decline included program trading, overvaluation, illiquidity, and market psychology.

A popular explanation for the 1987 crash was selling by program traders, most notably as a reaction to the computerized selling required by portfolio insurance hedges.[10] However, economist Dean Furbush points out that the biggest price drops occurred when trading volume was light.[11] In program trading, computers perform rapid stock executions based on external inputs, such as the price of related securities. Common strategies implemented by program trading involve an attempt to engage in arbitrage and portfolio insurance strategies. As computer technology became more available, the use of program trading grew dramatically within Wall Street firms. After the crash, many blamed program trading strategies for blindly selling stocks as markets fell, exacerbating the decline. Some economists theorized the speculative boom leading up to October was caused by program trading, and that the crash was merely a return to normalcy. Either way, program trading ended up taking the majority of the blame in the public eye for the 1987 stock market crash. U.S. Congressman Edward J. Markey, who had been warning about the possibility of a crash, stated that "Program trading was the principal cause."[12]

New York University's Anna Chen divides the causes into macroeconomic and internal reasons. Macroeconomic causes included international disputes about foreign exchange and interest rates, and fears about inflation.
The internal reasons included innovations with index futures and portfolio insurance. I've seen accounts that maybe roughly half the trading on that day was a small number of institutions with portfolio insurance. Big guys were dumping their stock. Also, the futures market in Chicago was even lower than the stock market, and people tried to arbitrage that. The proper strategy was to buy futures in Chicago and sell in the New York cash market. It made it hard – the portfolio insurance people were also trying to sell their stock at the same time.[13]
​
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That would be time to "buybuybuy!".
 
A 4000 pt/22% drop would be the correction we've been expecting for what, a couple of years now. Pretty regular. I was hoping for a larger buying opportunity
 
jebmke said:
1987! One day.
Click to expand...

That was the year I learned not to sell on panics.

I had very little in the market ($2K in an IRA maybe), but one of my office mates did. She and her husband really did panic. They sold all their stocks at a large loss and didn't get back in the market in time.

I was able to look at what they did and see how stupid they had been.

Every time the market tanks I think of them and it helps me to stay invested. This has severed me very well.
 
If you visit the MarketWatch site often enough, you will see those kinds of headlines are a regular occurrence on there. It's click-bait - nothing more.

What's the old expression......"they've predicted nine of the last 5 recessions"

Keep your powder dry. Have your Exit Strategy planned if it gets really nasty. But relying on MarketWatch for anything more than their daily charts is not a good thing.
 
We had nothing in the market before, but I put everything we had (about $20K) in the market on the Tuesday & Wednesday after Black Monday. The first of several great opportunities. We have been in and stayed in ever since.

I'd rather be lucky than good... ;)
 
The article author is full of manure , but I always welcome sale prices on good, dividend paying equities.
 
...and the winner is.... !!!!
@11:45 ET... the DOW!!!
UP... 260 Pts.

:facepalm:
 
We all like to think we know more in life than we actually do. This applies to the stock market as much as anything else.
 
I love a sale.


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum
 
FiveDriver said:
If you visit the MarketWatch site often enough, you will see those kinds of headlines are a regular occurrence on there. It's click-bait - nothing more.
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^ This.

I rarely see real journalism anymore. It's nothing more than "catchy" headlines that lure people in to waste their time and get their eyes on some advertisements (or 12 of them). Even our local paper has gone to posting stories about...nothing. There are more "stories" about H.S. sports than anything of real substance. What's even more annoying is when something DOES happen that can effect local people, they report it 5 days after the fact, if at all.

Here's a fine example of the "trending" items on Facebook. Granted, this isn't from a news source per se, but any of those links WILL send you to a "news site" so it's a defacto news feed.

Oh wait...there is real news there...someone is mad they showed a DEAD DINOSAUR on Jurassic Park!?! Why couldn't they find one that was ALIVE?!? :D
 

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FlyBoy5 said:
Oh wait...there is real news there...someone is mad they showed a DEAD DINOSAUR on Jurassic Park!?! Why couldn't they find one that was ALIVE?!? :D
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As soon as they find a planet with intelligent life...
 
Meh. Someone's selling their book, I see.

I'm sure the vast majority of stock investors have no idea whatsoever that the Federal Reserve has even the merest inkling of a concept to perhaps raise interest rates, and when the overnight rate suddenly bumps up slightly the wave of shock and panic will devastate the market, because as we all know the market is no good at this whole 'pricing' thing.

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Down 22% from its peak isn't exactly a doomsday scenario. It's happened many times. It's a pretty significant bear market, but in both 2000-02 and 2008-09 the market went down much more than this on a percentage basis. Hardly uncharted waters there.
 
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