Examples of Inflation Easing--Add Yours!

[Koolau]

Gas is back under $3 which is nice. And most of the COVID-related supply chain price hikes have returned to normal. Milk. Eggs (that was avian flu also).

Local gas just took a 30 to 40 cent jump on Friday. Somebody didn't get the news about inflation receding, I guess.

 

[GenXguy]

Hey look. Inflation is coming down on bananas.

 

[disneysteve]

Hey look. Inflation is coming down on bananas.

Almost a 14% price drop. Not bad at all.

 

[GenXguy]

Almost a 14% price drop. Not bad at all.

Yeah. If only I could see inflation come down on my insurance, like that. lol Ironically, I'm actually buying my bananas at a different chain supermarket for 39 cents per pound.

Local gas just took a 30 to 40 cent jump on Friday. Somebody didn't get the news about inflation receding, I guess.

It's still $3.29 here, but my tank is mostly full. It usually goes back up before I need gas. lol

 

[Koolau]

Yeah. If only I could see inflation come down on my insurance, like that. lol Ironically, I'm actually buying my bananas at a different chain supermarket for 39 cents per pound.
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It's still $3.29 here, but my tank is mostly full. It usually goes back up before I need gas. lol

In one week I saw a low of $2.99 and then a high of $3.54 - all in our town. Mostly in the mid $3.30's now.

 

[Badger]

Ha. I was just about to post in the other thread how 80/20 hamburger doesn't seem to really be 80/20 any more.
We're getting a lot more liquid in the bottom of the pan than we used to. Both a lot more fat and more water.

I don't doubt that this is another example of fooling the consumer just like when ice cream was changed from 1/2 gallon to 1.5 liters but the box still looked like 1/2 gallon size but skinnier. I bet there is more water in canned goods as well.

 

[frank]

bought some tuna in cans and it was a name brand. the label says 5 ounces, but 1 ounce of water , so how much of an increase is that. although the shelf price didn/t go up a lot the product shrunk by 20%

 

[Koolau]

I don't doubt that this is another example of fooling the consumer just like when ice cream was changed from 1/2 gallon to 1.5 liters but the box still looked like 1/2 gallon size but skinnier. I bet there is more water in canned goods as well.

There is also more air in ice cream.

 

[GenXguy]

Yeah, as if inflation wasn't bad enough, we're getting less and/or lower quality product more of the time.

 

[Koolau]

Yeah, as if inflation wasn't bad enough, we're getting less and/or lower quality product more of the time.

I'm not for regulation as such, but listing ingredients in a more useful way would be valuable in comparison shopping. I notice in stores, they will use terms that make comparison very difficult. I'm sure the numerical values are correct but they don't use logical terms. I'd like to see data on cost per ounce of protein for instance.

For ice cream "density" of the product in gm/ml or ounces (wt) per ounce (volume) might be key in determining the best ice cream value. If you ever get ice cream as a desert at a nice restaurant you might notice how the little dab they give you seems so much more dense and goes a lot farther than say "Bryers" or "Edys" etc. The "store-bought" stuff is fluffed up with air - probably to the point you'd start finding bubbles in the product if they used any more air.

Do what you want with your products but give me data to compare apples to apples (or air to air.)

 

[Lewis Clark]

The inflatable kayak I bought in February 2021 is still still on sale for the same price I paid then.

 

[Koolau]

The inflatable kayak I bought in February 2021 is still still on sale for the same price I paid then.

End of the season pricing??

 

[Lewis Clark]

Doubt it is an end of season sale. I've looked a few times over the past three years and I have not noticed the price change at all.

 

[aja8888]

Heating oil 9/20/2023 = $4.93 - yesterday (9/6/2024) = $3.94. Not sure that is inflation "easing" or just the Saudi's lowering their price but it does save me a few 100 $$ for which I am greatful. The price is still up 23% since early 2021 though.

We produce more oil than the Saudis. Oil is a commodity and price fluctuations are based on demand, weather conditions, production problems, availability, political issues, etc. The days of the Saudis being in control of the price are pretty much over.

 

[latexman]

I bought regular unleaded for $2.89/gal yesterday.

 

[Koolau]

We produce more oil than the Saudis. Oil is a commodity and price fluctuations are based on demand, weather conditions, production problems, availability, political issues, etc. The days of the Saudis being in control of the price are pretty much over.

I respectfully disagree It's true that the USA is producing a lot more oil than we used to. Having said that, oil is still on a razor's edge of production vs usage. One small recession could crash the oil prices. Conversely, the Saudis (or another oil producing country other than the USA) could withhold a couple million bbl of oil and the prices would spike dramatically. The USA can not make up 2 million bbl of oil that quickly.

The oil price vs usage is one of those relatively inelastic relationships that will remain that way for years go come unless more stable (or favorable) oil trading actors align. Virtually any significant oil supplier has a lot of power over the price IF they are willing to cut their production (and take the hit on income.) Typically, that is done for political rather than for economic reasons which is why it is so difficult to counter.

 

[aja8888]

I respectfully disagree It's true that the USA is producing a lot more oil than we used to. Having said that, oil is still on a razor's edge of production vs usage. One small recession could crash the oil prices. Conversely, the Saudis (or another oil producing country other than the USA) could withhold a couple million bbl of oil and the prices would spike dramatically. The USA can not make up 2 million bbl of oil that quickly.

The oil price vs usage is one of those relatively inelastic relationships that will remain that way for years go come unless more stable (or favorable) oil trading actors align. Virtually any significant oil supplier has a lot of power over the price IF they are willing to cut their production (and take the hit on income.) Typically, that is done for political rather than for economic reasons which is why it is so difficult to counter.

I was in the business 30+ years so I know what I am talking about. Here's a chart:

United States produces more crude oil than any country, ever - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

The U.S. is currently the world's swing producer of crude oil. Sudie's fields are in decline and there are no new fields found. Russia has the most reserves, but much is difficult to get to and produce. Plus their crude in very heavy and needs to be blended for refining. Etc, etc,......I could go on, but why bother?

 

[AudiDudi]

We produce more oil than the Saudis. Oil is a commodity and price fluctuations are based on demand, weather conditions, production problems, availability, political issues, etc. The days of the Saudis being in control of the price are pretty much over.

The Saudis produce about 9.6 million barrels/day. Opec as a whole produces about 34 million. The US produces about 12.9 million - so OPEC as a whole outproduces the US by over 20 million barrels/day. I'd say it's OPEC that controls the price (with Saudi input).

 

[MichaelB]

bought some tuna in cans and it was a name brand. the label says 5 ounces, but 1 ounce of water , so how much of an increase is that. although the shelf price didn/t go up a lot the product shrunk by 20%

This isn’t new or recent. When I make tuna salad I drain the cans and then weigh them, just to see how much liquid was in the can. It’s been pretty steady at around 1 oz for years.

Costco in S Florida still sells Genova tuna in 7 oz cans, which also has about 1 oz liquid, so it’s a much better deal.

 

[aja8888]

The Saudis produce about 9.6 million barrels/day. Opec as a whole produces about 34 million. The US produces about 12.9 million - so OPEC as a whole outproduces the US by over 20 million barrels/day. I'd say it's OPEC that controls the price (with Saudi input).

OPEC has been losing their control of oil price setting thru internal conflicts. This is a given fact and has been demonstrated over and over again. I never mentioned OPEC combined production. And, a lot of those numbers reported are less than accurate.

 

[MichaelB]

The Saudis produce about 9.6 million barrels/day. Opec as a whole produces about 34 million. The US produces about 12.9 million - so OPEC as a whole outproduces the US by over 20 million barrels/day. I'd say it's OPEC that controls the price (with Saudi input).

Aja’s right on this, his energy posts over the years show he knows his stuff. The price of oil has a very low elasticity of demand, so the price is determined at the margin. What matters is not who produces the most but who can add or subtract production in the very short term. The US leads that effort because shale oil is much easier to turn on or off. Look at the production numbers for the past 10 years.

 

[aja8888]

Aja’s right on this, his energy posts over the years show he knows his stuff. The price of oil has a very low elasticity of demand, so the price is determined at the margin. What matters is not who produces the most but who can add or subtract production in the very short term. The US leads that effort because shale oil is much easier to turn on or off. Look at the production numbers for the past 10 years.

Yes, look what happened when the U.S, emptied the Strategic Reserve recently. Prices fell worldwide and some of that oil was (reportedly) brokered to China of all places. I'm not sure how many drilled and not completed wells we have now in the U.S., but it was ~4,000 a while back. Those wells can be brought into production very quickly with the addition of topside equipment (tanks, separators, etc) and a frac job.

 

[jimbee]

I was in the business 30+ years so I know what I am talking about. Here's a chart:

United States produces more crude oil than any country, ever - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

The U.S. is currently the world's swing producer of crude oil. Sudie's fields are in decline and there are no new fields found. Russia has the most reserves, but much is difficult to get to and produce. Plus their crude in very heavy and needs to be blended for refining. Etc, etc,......I could go on, but why bother?

Thank you for using data and not speculation.

 

[Koolau]

I was in the business 30+ years so I know what I am talking about. Here's a chart:

United States produces more crude oil than any country, ever - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

The U.S. is currently the world's swing producer of crude oil. Sudie's fields are in decline and there are no new fields found. Russia has the most reserves, but much is difficult to get to and produce. Plus their crude in very heavy and needs to be blended for refining. Etc, etc,......I could go on, but why bother?

I'm sure you know how much the USA produces - it is more than anyone else. I agreed with you on that point.

The world needs XXX bbl/day of oil. Drop that by 2% in production and prices sky rocket because, guess what, people still want to use the same amount of oil. So, EVEN though the USA produces the most oil, they can't easily ramp that up to add 2% to the world production. It's easy to drop production from your normal daily production. It's difficult to increase your production by 2% above the most you have ever produced.

Imagine where we would be if the USA had not stepped up it's production through fracking, etc.

 

[NatureBoy]

I respectfully disagree It's true that the USA is producing a lot more oil than we used to. Having said that, oil is still on a razor's edge of production vs usage. One small recession could crash the oil prices. Conversely, the Saudis (or another oil producing country other than the USA) could withhold a couple million bbl of oil and the prices would spike dramatically. The USA can not make up 2 million bbl of oil that quickly.

The oil price vs usage is one of those relatively inelastic relationships that will remain that way for years go come unless more stable (or favorable) oil trading actors align. Virtually any significant oil supplier has a lot of power over the price IF they are willing to cut their production (and take the hit on income.) Typically, that is done for political rather than for economic reasons which is why it is so difficult to counter.

For a perspective on U.S. oil production that is not anecdotal nor personal, these data are useful:

United States produces more crude oil than any country, ever - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov