Examples of Inflation Easing--Add Yours!

[NatureBoy]

Yeah, inflation is still ongoing. It may have eased (lower rate of change) but prices are definitely not going down - they're still going up.

Here are some recent aggregate grocery price inflation data showing significant drops: M/M prices for August down 3.7%; Y/Y price inflation approaching 0% (search for Quintanilla's X post; latter data apparently behind a paywall):

Link:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1833497219036524614

 

[JDARNELL]

I purchased grass seed today. Its down 25% since last fall.

 

[Koolau]

For a perspective on U.S. oil production that is not anecdotal nor personal, these data are useful:

United States produces more crude oil than any country, ever - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

How much the USA produces is NOT the issue here. We ALL know that USA produces the most. We have dramatically increased oil production. Do I need to agree with you that USA is the biggest oil producer for yet a fourth time?? Just let me know and I'll be glad to say it again.

Oil prices is much more about who can affect the price by cutting production. And that is anyone who is willing to take the income hit. USA doesn't do that because, well, we're capitalists.

Those significant oil producers who would rather punish the world (or USA or whomever) can simply cut a couple of million bbl/day production and prices sky rocket. Hard to believe that out of (very roughly) 100 million bbl/day, a mere 2 million bbl would make a difference, but it does. We call that inelastic supply/demand. That's what we have with oil. USA - even as the biggest producer can not magically make up even 2 million bbl/day, so there's the problem.

Yes, look what happened when the U.S, emptied the Strategic Reserve recently. Prices fell worldwide and some of that oil was (reportedly) brokered to China of all places. I'm not sure how many drilled and not completed wells we have now in the U.S., but it was ~4,000 a while back. Those wells can be brought into production very quickly with the addition of topside equipment (tanks, separators, etc) and a frac job.

I guess you need to define "very quickly" because a committed middle east producer or two can shut off their supply in a few days if they really want to wreck economies. Say we (USA) make up that 2 million bbl of oil that a middle east country decides to cut their production by. About the time we make up the difference, the middle east country realizes they actually need the money and go back to their production and suddenly we have a glut. The USA folks who turned on those expensive old wells or started shale oil extraction take a financial bath - and aren't as inclined to do that the next time the shortage happens. None of this happens in a vacuum. In theory, it's easy, in practice, not so much.

The oil reserves thing could get political but I'll just say this: You can't empty the oil reserve for very long and still have an oil reserve.

 

[Qs Laptop]

The US uses 20 million barrels of oil PER DAY. The US produces 21.7 million barrels per day. Energy is a world market meaning the oil we produced does not stay here.

About 180 million barrels of oil were released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve over 6 months. 1M barrels per day.

Tapping the strategic oil reserves might have lowered the price of gas 15 to 20 cents a gallon, assuming that oil stayed in the US. [Quick math: releasing the oil added about 5% to the US daily needs. 5% of $3.00 is $.15; 5% of $4.00 is $.20]

Getting an idling oil well online is not done quickly. Also, the reason the oil well is idling in the first place might be because the price of oil does not make it profitable to pump it out of the ground. Lots of variables.

Now back to the topic at hand, the easing of prices...

Price of a crude oil in the past month.

 

[GenXguy]

I ordered a new mid-drive Yamaha CrossCore RC e-Bike for $1199 plus $199 shipping. And I'm supposed to get a free extra battery with 5 year warranty after I do the warranty registration! Deal looks excellent, less than I paid for an off-brand hub drive e-bike in Feb 2021. I know it's late season, but this is an even better deal than I would have expected and is a front page deal with a high score on slickdeals. Sadly, vendor told me shipping is weeks out.

Yamaha YDX-MORO E-Bike (Desert Yellow) w/ Extra Battery + Extended Battery Warranty $1919 + Free Shipping (select locations)

* It will show regular price when you click on the link, but discount will be applied when you put it in the cart. * Yamaha official web charges Tax, but one dealer I linked below doesn't charge

slickdeals.net

 

[GenXguy]

Burger King just raised their Whopper Wednesday price to $3.99 from $2.99. That's a 33% price hike. Disappointing. I'm done with them, now.

 

[Koolau]

My mechanic condemned my battery (paid less than $150 for it a couple of years ago.) Mechanic offered to replace said battery for (wait for it) $250! Say what?

Returning you now...

 

[Gumby]

Gas less than $3.00 per gallon in my area.

 

[MichaelB]

Gas less than $3.00 per gallon in my area.

Prices are down substantially over the past year, this can be seen most easily in spending data.

 

[aja8888]

Xaw $2.49/gallon for 87 octane here today.

 

[Koolau]

Gas less than $3.00 per gallon in my area.

Back up from near $3 to $3.35 again today. Nice that I didn't need gas.

But also, Walmart increased the 24 pack of Diet Pepsi from $11.46 to 13.50 (those numbers are close but maybe off a few cents - IOW up $2 per box of 24 cans - for no apparent reason.) Less than 3 years ago, the same Walmart sold Diet Pepsi at $3.33 per 12 pack every day. So prices for sodas have doubled - and they're still going up.

But in keeping with the thread's title, I did find Diet Pepsi at Krogers for $2.99/6 pack of 17 oz bottles BUT you need to use their app which I refuse to do. I took my cart with food and Diet Pepsi to the check out and told them I wanted the app price but I don't have the app. They gave it to me. Probably didn't want to restock the hamburger and salad fixin's in my cart along with the Diet Pepsi. And they would have had to without giving me the app price.

 

[skipro33]

Xaw $2.49/gallon for 87 octane here today.

It's double that still here in California.

 

[GenXguy]

Mostly $3.09 here, but $3.79 in some cities in the same state at some stations.

After slowly coming down, it usually jumps up a lot before I need gas. My tank is mostly full.

 

[I am He]

Not exactly the same, but... Our grocery bill at Krogers was 53% of the original price after shopping online where you clip the digital coupons in addition to the weekly sale price. I think it's discriminatory toward older folks who just shop the aisles. The tags in the store will say it's so many dollars off but the fine print deals with purchasing so many of an item, being a card member and then needing to clip the digital coupon. It's always frustrating when you get your receipt and realize you haven't done all the necessary steps required to get the "advertised price."

 

[68bucks]

We produce more oil than the Saudis. Oil is a commodity and price fluctuations are based on demand, weather conditions, production problems, availability, political issues, etc. The days of the Saudis being in control of the price are pretty much over.

It's not the Saudis but OPEC. They produce about 40% of global production so if they cut production prices go up. The US at about 22% can't control price but theyike about $65-75 a barrel. At about $45-50 US producers don't make money and will slow production.

 

[68bucks]

I got a bid for a new propane furnace and AC unit last November. We didn't do the project so I called yesterday to get an updated quote as we may now go ahead with it. The package went down by about $100. The furnace went down quite a bit but the AC went up quite a bit. I expected about a 5-10% increase overall.

 

[TheWizard]

Late to the thread, but lobster was down to $9 a pound a few weeks ago...

 

[CaptTom]

Late to the thread, but lobster was down to $9 a pound a few weeks ago...

That's actually kinda high. A couple of places around here have them for $6.99, maybe $1 more in the supermarket. I'm surprised. Market Basket seafood is usually a pretty good price and quality.

Of course lobster prices fluctuate wildly based on season, fuel prices, bait prices, regulations, demand from tourist-based businesses and competition from Canada. That's normal, not really inflation or deflation.

 

[TheWizard]

That's actually kinda high. A couple of places around here have them for $6.99, maybe $1 more in the supermarket. I'm surprised. Market Basket seafood is usually a pretty good price and quality.

Of course lobster prices fluctuate wildly based on season, fuel prices, bait prices, regulations, demand from tourist-based businesses and competition from Canada. That's normal, not really inflation or deflation.

Well, I was kinda hungry and it was a good lobster, so...

 

[urn2bfree]

Aldi sells Priano dried pasta which went up over $2.00 per pound at peak inflation. The price is now down to $1.75.

 

[Sunset]

Had concrete done last year. Got another quote for this year. Concrete guy's price was flat.

Now of course compared to 3 years ago, it is up 40%, but hey, one year at a time.

Past 3 years my lawn guy has charged me the same price per week. No inflation!

 

[CaptTom]

Aldi sells Priano dried pasta which went up over $2.00 per pound at peak inflation. The price is now down to $1.75.

I've noticed that pasta went way up, and now it's back down almost to where it was before inflation spiked. I assume that had something to do with Ukrainian grain or weather in the midwest or whatever else impacts flour prices, plus a healthy dose of opportunistic pricing on the part of the sellers.

Bad move, IMHO. People who buy pasta are more likely to be DIY cooks than part of the BTD crowd. The kind of people who might say "screw you, I ain't paying THAT price" and move on to the next shelf.

My theory is supported by the fact that they couldn't maintain those high prices without losing customers. Good. I'm glad the market is working, and at least some people still vote with their wallets.

 

[FindingForward]

hoping eggs might drop in the near future - prices are still high in my area.

 

[aja8888]

It's double that still here in California.

It's not the Saudis but OPEC. They produce about 40% of global production so if they cut production prices go up. The US at about 22% can't control price but theyike about $65-75 a barrel. At about $45-50 US producers don't make money and will slow production.

Of course we all know the track record of OPEC members actually doing what they agreed to as a group!

 

[FiveDriver]

I see a discussion of Chicken and Egg price hikes on this thread.

It should be noted that the Avian Flu caused over 100 million chickens to have to be destroyed in 2022, with the resultant rise in prices. This has subsided somewhat, but there is still an epidemic down on the farm.

Another item -- I used to buy Ground Coffee from Dunkin Donuts in the grocery store. In 2020 the price shot up from $5.99 to $14.99 seemingly overnight. I found a very nice substitute French Vanilla at Lidl's -- for $4.99

I believe this is called a "Substitution" in the Monthly PCE data.
I call it a savings of $10 a week in my Monthly Food Budget data.