Feedback on my long term TIPS plan

Closet_Gamer

Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Joined
Oct 12, 2011
Messages
1,701
Location
Philadelphia
Hi all.

Would like to get some feedback on a plan I’m hatching for long-term income.

Our situation:

Starting in 2025 and continuing through 2034 (when I will be 63), I will be receiving annual, lump sum, distributions from a non-qualified deferred compensation plan. We will be funding in-year expenses from those distributions and reinvesting the excess for future retirement years. In most years the after tax distributions will be 2-4 times what we need for in-year expenses. Our long term plan requires the re-investment of these funds. The structure of the deferred comp growth will almost certainly outpace any reasonable inflation scenario.

Short of megacorp going bankrupt, the deferred comp plan gives us guaranteed income from now until I am 63. I really like this long term stability and, in theory, the guaranteed nature of the income allows us to be more aggressive with the rest of the portfolio as we can ride out volatility.

I am thinking of building a TIPS ladder from 2035 to 2045 in order to continue that runway. I would do this by buying new, 10-year TIPS issues when my deferred compensation is distributed each year. The annual purchase would be sufficient to cover essential expenses plus 50% of our “nice to have” expenses.

From 2035 through 2045, I could either withdraw the TIPS money to live on or, if the balance of the portfolio was in good shape, roll the TIPS another 10 years and live off the remainder of the assets.

Practically speaking, I would do the TIPS purchases inside of a rollover IRA funded by my megacorp 401K which already has sufficient value to cover the 10 year TIPS ladder. The reason for making the TIPS purchases when the deferred comp is distributed is that it aligns with a general rebalancing of the portfolio due to the arrival of the new deferred comp money. The full value of the TIPS ladder would represent about 15% of our assets.

Excluding the deferred comp account, today, our AA is:
45% Lg Cap
15% Small Cap
20% International
20% Fixed Income (heavily tilted to CDs & Treasuries over a 5 year ladder)

Absent the long term TIPS strategy, I would have aimed to get to a 50/50 equity/fixed income AA by 2034 when the deferred comp ran out. With the TIPS strategy, I may be able to be more aggressive.

Two questions:

1 - Perspectives on the TIPS strategy? Pros/Cons? To me it feels like a do-it-yourself inflation adjusted pension or inflation protected deferred MYGA, without the insurance premium.

2 - With the guaranteed TIPS income, how should I approach the AA for the remainder of the portfolio? Stay more aggressive? Suggestions on AA?

Interesting aside: I’ve asked Charles Schwab to help model this and they were a deer in the headlights. Basically said this is a very interesting idea but they do not have the software/modeling assets to do a good job on this. I was really surprised.

Thanks for any thoughts you have.
 
1- I think TIPS ladders are a great way to go as long as they’re paying a decent coupon. I have a 10 year bond ladder and years 4 to 10 are over 90% TIPS. Between the ladder and SS I should be able to live well during a long market downturn.

Great sleep at night insurance.

2- AA is a very personal thing and it may change over time. Pick what you are comfortable with.

Good Luck!
 
Your strategy is basically what I am doing for all my fixed income, except the timelines are different. My TIPS ladder starts in 2028 and goes out to 2035, with the most recent addition the 10-year TIPS that was auctioned last month.

I’m missing one step in my ladder for 2031, which will be filled later this year with the Oct 5-year TIPS auction.

That’s currently an 8 year ladder, but I will likely expand it to 10 years by participating in the Jan 10-year auctions.

Two questions:

1 - Perspectives on the TIPS strategy? Pros/Cons? To me it feels like a do-it-yourself inflation adjusted pension or inflation protected deferred MYGA, without the insurance premium.
I’m all for this strategy. I don’t see any downsides. No other investment gives you a guarantee return of inflation adjusted principal. And it’s simple.

Note, I don’t consider interest payments in my model. I take the interest and buy more equities. I only expect return of inflation adjusted principal for withdrawals, so if I want 100k in the future, I buy 100k worth of TIPS now.

I don’t even care about the coupon rate. TIPS are insurance. By using TIPS, I can maintain a higher allocation to equities where I’ll likely have a higher return than any coupon rate that TIPS provide.

Having said that, it is a great time to buy TIPS, with ~2% real yields.

2 - With the guaranteed TIPS income, how should I approach the AA for the remainder of the portfolio? Stay more aggressive? Suggestions on AA?
I stay aggressive. Equities provide better gains long-term. TIPS are insurance for year(s) when equities go sideways. If I want to be more conservative, I can increase the amount of TIPS I buy for each year in my ladder, but odds are it’ll never be too high (basic expenses + some buffer).

There have been other threads where it’s been discussed, so you might want to do some searching.

I’m a big fan of this strategy and in the (minimal) amount of backtesting I did, I found that it increased portfolio survivability over using bonds/treasuries. But it’s not free. It happens because you can maintain a higher allocation to equities.
 
We are TIPS fans, though for a slightly different reason. I'm now passed 20 years of retirement, but in the mid-2000s when we retired we looked at our assets and decided that we were well covered for a comfortable retirement except for the risk of high inflation like we saw in the late 70s, early 80s. So we bought very serious 6 figures in TIPS. Kind of like home fire insurance. Buying the insurance doesn't mean we hope for a fire or for high inflation. But if either comes our way, we have some defense. With your strategy you will have that defense, too, even though you don't mention it explicitly.

After some rebalancing I recently ended up with a bunch of cash in MM funds. I have been on the fence about what to do with it, but with all the craziness in Washington these days, I used it to buy another $150K of TIPS. More insurance.

My only suggestion is that you think seriously about getting your TIPS purchases going more quickly. My Magic 8 Ball is recusing itself on inflation predictions, but the small inflation spike we recently saw is a warning that the future may hold excitement. Current news underlines this risk for me and makes me glad our insurance is paid.
 
1- I think TIPS ladders are a great way to go as long as they’re paying a decent coupon. I have a 10 year bond ladder and years 4 to 10 are over 90% TIPS. Between the ladder and SS I should be able to live well during a long market downturn.

Great sleep at night insurance.

2- AA is a very personal thing and it may change over time. Pick what you are comfortable with.

Good Luck!

Thanks. I hadn't thought of pairing the TIPS ladder with a regular bond ladder. I will look at that as a model.
 
I stay aggressive. Equities provide better gains long-term. TIPS are insurance for year(s) when equities go sideways. If I want to be more conservative, I can increase the amount of TIPS I buy for each year in my ladder, but odds are it’ll never be too high (basic expenses + some buffer).

There have been other threads where it’s been discussed, so you might want to do some searching.

I’m a big fan of this strategy and in the (minimal) amount of backtesting I did, I found that it increased portfolio survivability over using bonds/treasuries. But it’s not free. It happens because you can maintain a higher allocation to equities.

Thanks for the thoughts. Curious where/how you did the back testing? Other than my spreadsheets, I've not found a calculator that allows me to lay in a TIPS foundation and run the monte carlo models on the remaining portfolio.
 
We are TIPS fans, though for a slightly different reason. I'm now passed 20 years of retirement, but in the mid-2000s when we retired we looked at our assets and decided that we were well covered for a comfortable retirement except for the risk of high inflation like we saw in the late 70s, early 80s. So we bought very serious 6 figures in TIPS. Kind of like home fire insurance. Buying the insurance doesn't mean we hope for a fire or for high inflation. But if either comes our way, we have some defense. With your strategy you will have that defense, too, even though you don't mention it explicitly.

After some rebalancing I recently ended up with a bunch of cash in MM funds. I have been on the fence about what to do with it, but with all the craziness in Washington these days, I used it to buy another $150K of TIPS. More insurance.

My only suggestion is that you think seriously about getting your TIPS purchases going more quickly. My Magic 8 Ball is recusing itself on inflation predictions, but the small inflation spike we recently saw is a warning that the future may hold excitement. Current news underlines this risk for me and makes me glad our insurance is paid.

Thanks ... and today's CPI data put the exclamation point behind your point.

One thing I've noticed though is that TIPS don't exist from 2036 - 2039 because the govt stopped selling them for a while, so I can't buy those legs of the ladder until they hit their 10 year auction windows.

How do you think about buying existing TIPS that already have previous inflation built in? On a new TIPS, if you hit deflation you still get your principle back ... if you buy something with past inflation built in, you ride a deflation down until it hits par. I haven't figured out how much I care about that.
 
Thanks ... and today's CPI data put the exclamation point behind your point.
Yes. It's amazing to me how recency bias distorts people's strategic planning
One thing I've noticed though is that TIPS don't exist from 2036 - 2039 because the govt stopped selling them for a while, so I can't buy those legs of the ladder until they hit their 10 year auction windows.
Better is the enemy of good. I would suggest you just do what you can with what's available and not obsess over it.
How do you think about buying existing TIPS that already have previous inflation built in? On a new TIPS, if you hit deflation you still get your principle back ... if you buy something with past inflation built in, you ride a deflation down until it hits par. I haven't figured out how much I care about that.
I don't worry about that at all. When has the US ever had an extensive bout of deflation??
 
Last edited:
I would not worry about deflation.

But, if it is a worry then you might consider buying Ibonds, as much as you can. My understanding is Ibonds will never go down in value. After 5 years, all the interest you earned is yours to keep. And share with the tax man.
 
Thanks for the thoughts. Curious where/how you did the back testing? Other than my spreadsheets, I've not found a calculator that allows me to lay in a TIPS foundation and run the monte carlo models on the remaining portfolio.

I built my own model, which I describe here:
Thread 'AA with TIPS for FI'
AA with TIPS for FI

It’s not perfect, but worked well enough for my purposes.

It would be nice if TIPS were added to existing calculators, but I couldn’t find any.
 
I don’t worry about deflation, since I think it’s unlikely, but even then TIPS do well. You’re always guaranteed par at maturity.

It makes it a little bit harder if you buy on secondary market where TIPS have >1 inflation factor, but for TIPS bought at auction, you won’t lose any principal if there’s deflation.
 
....To me it feels like a do-it-yourself inflation adjusted pension or inflation protected deferred MYGA, without the insurance premium. ...
I agree. You're building yourself a deferred inflation adjusted payout annuity with the TIPS ladder. The other benefit of a ladder over an annuity are that if for some reason you need access to the money then you can do so, which you can't do with an annuity. Also, it is hard to find inflation-adjusted payout annuities other than delaying SS.
 

Latest posts

Back
Top Bottom