FIRE Members - Are any of you pro-tariff?

[BigNick]

French officials in the 1960s called this the U.S.'s "exorbitant privilege": the U.S. can borrow in its own currency, unlike many other countries. If a country like Argentina borrows in dollars, it risks default if it can't earn enough dollars. But the U.S. can just issue more.

But even then, only up to a point. If people lose confidence in the US economy or leadership then they will stop buying (or sell) their US debt.

Remember the "PIIGS" countries circa 2009 (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain), how everyone laughed at their crazy high bond yields and called them economic basket cases? Right now their yields are all lower than the US's. And the dollar is down by about 8% against the Euro in the last month (a bit less against other currencies), which means that all products imported from Europe will cost more (unless the overseas supplier wants to eat the difference) even before tariffs are added.

 

[Onda]

It’s hard to have an opinion about tariffs if we don’t understand their purpose. Are they a negotiating tactic, an attempt to close trade deficit, a revolution in taxation or a way to re-industrialize US? I’m cautiously for all these goals but have no clue if tariffs are in fact going to help with any of them. I’d be interested in revisiting this thread in two years/

No need to set a calendar reminder for 2027—you’ll get your answer by this summer, with front-row seats to the economic fireworks show

 

[FlaGator]

You don't want to pay 1,500 for a new iphone?

I wouldn't, but apparently there's no rush.
From CNBC.com https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/12/trump-exempts-phones-computers-chips-tariffs-apple-dell.html

"Smartphones and computers are among many tech devices and components that will be exempted from reciprocal tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, according to new guidance from U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

The guidance, issued late Friday evening, comes after Trump earlier this month imposed 145% tariffs on products from China, a move that threatened to take a toll on tech giants like Apple, which makes iPhones and most of its other products in China."

 

[Closet_Gamer]

Plus working on the assembly line was mind numbing I’ve been told.

Working the register at Walmart isn’t exactly nuclear physics.

And an EFT deposit from the government for some form of poverty assistance doesn’t stimulate the mind either.

People in mind numbing jobs often look up at the supervisor and say, hey, “how do I get that job?”

Progress ensues for those people.

 

[momoney]

In my experience, there were many who actually liked the job, and actually took a certain amount of pride in their work. And the pay usually beat being a night stocker at IGA, with better benefits.

Right, I know plenty who find it soul sucking work to sit in front of a computer for 9 hours a day. I'd guess these jobs are the next to go. These are the low hanging fruit. Virtual robots are faster, cheaper and easier to build.

We already pay a lot of people not to work or to work low paying jobs. A factory job has a lot of other benefits for the country. It gives people dignity, pride, keeps people out of trouble, offers social cohesion, additional training and skills, opportunities for advancement and learning how to save and buy things.

• Approximately 100 million Americans—about one in three—receive some form of government assistance, including programs like Medicaid, SNAP (food stamps), Social Security, and housing aid.
• Someone is no longer counted as unemployed after 4 weeks of not actively job hunting, even if they still want a job.
• 32% of the U.S. workforce—about 46.5 million people—are employed in occupations with a median wage below $15 an hour. These positions often lack benefits and offer little opportunity for advancement.

American corporations and their politicians took us down this road in the 80s. The US has looked the other way ever since.

They installed suicide-prevention nets at their factories and we say Americans don't want the jobs? Is the US really the bully or just standing up to a bully (we made stronger) that doesn't play fair?

 

[momoney]

But I should upgrade my iPhone 11 in the next few days

Or just buy a "renewed" iPhone 15 or 16. The past 2 I ordered had only been charged 1 time.

 

[Montecfo]

I doubt many here "like" tariffs. Trouble is our trading partners like them a lot.

I remember when the US took the initiative to lower trade barriers. We would lower a tariff from 5% to zero. Trading partner X would lower it from 25% to 20 or do nothing and just take the win.

I did not understand how that was to favor us and I still don't.

 

[dobig]

I wouldn't, but apparently there's no rush.
From CNBC.com https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/12/trump-exempts-phones-computers-chips-tariffs-apple-dell.html

"Smartphones and computers are among many tech devices and components that will be exempted from reciprocal tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, according to new guidance from U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

The guidance, issued late Friday evening, comes after Trump earlier this month imposed 145% tariffs on products from China, a move that threatened to take a toll on tech giants like Apple, which makes iPhones and most of its other products in China."

Should have bought AAPL last week.

 

[Onda]

I doubt many here "like" tariffs. Trouble is our trading partners like them a lot.

I remember when the US took the initiative to lower trade barriers. We would lower a tariff from 5% to zero. Trading partner X would lower it from 25% to 20 or do nothing and just take the win.

I did not understand how that was to favor us and I still don't.

For example: EU tariffs are below 2%. Claiming they’re 20% doesn’t magically make them 20%—they were, and still are, under 2%.

 

[marko]

I think as a country we've been taken advantage of for too long on too many fronts. Kind of like the rich dad who has so much money that he doesn't realize that his kids are spending wildly but then suddenly wakes up and all hell breaks loose.

I'd like to see a more level playing field. Current situation is a temporary one IMO.

 

[Montecfo]

For example: EU tariffs are below 2%. Claiming they’re 20% doesn’t magically make them 20%—they were, and still are, under 2%.

Well that is certainly not the matter I was referring to.

But some trade barriers are straightforward like a tariff. Others can be stealth, like a government heavily subsidizing an industry then selling it internationally at the subsidized price.

It is kind of a stealth tariff. If you really want fair trade these things go into the calculation somehow.

 

[momoney]

It is kind of a stealth tariff. If you really want fair trade these things go into.the calculation somehow.

Healthcare, education and military have become so expensive that they can no longer be ignored.

 

[momoney]

Should have bought AAPL last week.

All the eggs in one supply chain basket strategy was risky, but just too profitable to pass up. Apple keeping an open line of communication with the administration will hopefully buy them time to fully diversify the supply chain.

 

[MichaelB]

All the eggs in one supply chain basket strategy was risky, but just too profitable to pass up. Apple keeping an open line of communication with the administration will hopefully buy them time to fully diversify the supply chain.

It took Apple over a decade to build that supply chain. I think it’s wishful thinking to expect it can be rebuilt in less time.

 

[Teacher Terry]

Working the register at Walmart isn’t exactly nuclear physics.

And an EFT deposit from the government for some form of poverty assistance doesn’t stimulate the mind either.

People in mind numbing jobs often look up at the supervisor and say, hey, “how do I get that job?”

Progress ensues for those people.

I know all that as I spent 30 years helping people with disabilities become employed.

 

[Onda]

Well that is certainly not the matter I was referring to.

But some trade barriers are straightforward like a tariff. Others can be stealth, like a government heavily subsidizing an industry then selling it internationally at the subsidized price.

It is kind of a stealth tariff. If you really want fair trade these things go into the calculation somehow.

Can you please list EU barriers of 20%.

 

[dobig]

I know all that as I spent 30 years helping people with disabilities become employed.

What a noble cause. My hat's off to you.

 

[momoney]

It took Apple over a decade to build that supply chain. I think it’s wishful thinking to expect it can be rebuilt in less time.

It's been in the works for some time. India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Brazil. Interesting that countries don't want Apple to manufacture there unless a percentage of the parts are also made there. Most countries use leverage to bargain.

 

[Flieger]

Right.

Another way to look at the debt is we consumed more than we produced and that difference was paid for by government debt. If the government had not taken on that debt consumers would have. The debt was needed to pay for all the stuff. So, if public debt was lower, private debt would be higher, but the total outstanding debt would be the same.

Or we would/could have spent less?

Flieger

 

[Closet_Gamer]

I know all that as I spent 30 years helping people with disabilities become employed.

Well done. I’m sure you have had a lot of impact.

My point is that criticizing a future situation because it doesn’t make something ideal can gloss over the fact that it’s still better than the current situation.

In corporate life when someone would criticize some aspect of a new product or potential new employee, we used to say “don’t compare me to the almighty, just compare me to the alternative.”

 

[MichaelB]

Or we would/could have spent less?

Flieger

Sorry, I’m not sure what your message is.

 

[Flieger]

Tariffs are a generic term. I would challenge advocates to express 1) tariffs on what / who, 2) how much, and 3) what is the quantifiable expected outcome?

Likewise, for advocates of producing strategic goods in the US, 1) what goods, and 2) how is that accomplished?

I am an advocate for tariffs on items of strategic and national importance (chips, steel, pharma, auto/aviation, etc). I would say enough to ensure domestic production, and yes, pricing will be higher, but many state that "taxes are for the benefit of all" and I think strategic and national importance qualifies. JMHO.

I'm ok with shirts, sneakers, etc coming from outside (maybe another way to deal with moral issues related to those?).

For those arguing about how it was prior to OSHA and other safeguards. Those days are gone and it is really a straw man argument.

Flieger

 

[Flieger]

Sorry, I’m not sure what your message is.

I guess the message is that instead of ever increasing costs, we could have chosen to do/spend less. I could always continue to spend no matter my income and build a huge debt to just leave upon my death, but choose not to. I know it's not 100% the same but to say we 'had" to do all of the spending is not 100% accurate either.

Flieger

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

From my economics degree training, I am anti-tariff and very much pro free trade.

Having said that, Alexander Hamilton (who was no economics dummy) was pro-tariff. He argued that tarifs were necessary to protect not only young industries but were also required to ensure economic independence. If you want to get a more detailed understanding of his views, here is his writings on it: Founders Online: Alexander Hamilton’s Final Version of the Report on the Subjec …

I guess I am in the camp that we have done great long term harm to our middle class over the last 50 years which has left us as a country very exposed, especially if some of our largest trading "partners" decide we have very limited ability to rebuild military assets lost in conflict, or that we can be harmed greatly economically by cutting off supplies of goods. I am also in the camp that we have gone so far down this road that we will be unlikely to change our destiny.

 

[HFWR]

Or we would/could have spent less?

Flieger

Can’t argue that, though there is another side of the ledger.