FireCalc Bernicke Reality Retirement Plan

[Lstansbury]

Hi, here I am two weeks from 2017 and almost ready to pull the work plug in Q2 2017, a couple of months before I turn 60. Big timing question though re: Firecalc results. I am using the Bernicke Reality Retirement Plan, CPI, 15% in stocks, living until 98 -- and getting a 99.1% success rate.

But Using the constant spending rate , I get a 33% success rate. (blech)

So... does anyone know if Bernicke has updated his research on Reality Retirement models since 2000 or so when he wrote the RRP? I like his research, it seems pretty solid, but it's old. And I don't want to go with that model just because I really love the outcome. (wishful thinking)

I did some googling on Ty Bernicke, but didn't come up with much except his pretty pic!

Thanks for any help.

 

[Spudd]

Did you see this on the Bogleheads wiki?
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Mod...ogresses#Stages_having_variable_real_spending

They seem to think Bernicke's model is way too optimistic.

One of their references is this paper:
The Retirement Consumption Conundrum: Evidence from a Consumption Survey | Center for Retirement Research

 

[Lstansbury]

I did not see this! Thank you for posting, I will dig through it tomorrow..