growing_older
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
- Joined
- Jun 30, 2007
- Messages
- 2,657
So I have done all kinds of FIRECalc calculations and have backed into a number for my desired minimum FI portfolio size. If I have more than that, my chances of success go up, which I like. If I have less, my chances of success drop below what I'm willing to take, so I'll keep working.
But in the last month, my portfolio has reached this number. Twice. But only for a single day each time before dropping back below it. With all the talk of war in the Middle East, it has now fallen well below my target by almost an entire year worth of expenses. So much for the elation of reaching my goal.
I'm starting to think that reaching my target is not enough for FI. I also need to reach it sometime other than on a market surge or else it will just drop back down again. Which means I really need to overshoot the goal in order to be anywhere comfortable that fluctuations won't push me back under it. Right now, I'm thinking I'll choose another life event in the next year or two and evaluate then. If I'm comfortably over, then hooray. If not, then back to One More Year, or the next appropriate life event.
Has anyone else faced this "toe over the line" issue with portfolio value and how do I make sure I'm not self selecting for RE at the end of a long run up, just in time for a long drop down?
But in the last month, my portfolio has reached this number. Twice. But only for a single day each time before dropping back below it. With all the talk of war in the Middle East, it has now fallen well below my target by almost an entire year worth of expenses. So much for the elation of reaching my goal.
I'm starting to think that reaching my target is not enough for FI. I also need to reach it sometime other than on a market surge or else it will just drop back down again. Which means I really need to overshoot the goal in order to be anywhere comfortable that fluctuations won't push me back under it. Right now, I'm thinking I'll choose another life event in the next year or two and evaluate then. If I'm comfortably over, then hooray. If not, then back to One More Year, or the next appropriate life event.
Has anyone else faced this "toe over the line" issue with portfolio value and how do I make sure I'm not self selecting for RE at the end of a long run up, just in time for a long drop down?