Gen Xers whose careers are ended for them (NY Times)

[Closet_Gamer]

There is an old quip that “growing old is the most unexpected thing than can happen to someone.”

This applies to careers as well. I was fortunate to work in a growing business within what was, for decades, a growth company. But I always had in mind that things to don’t grow to the sky and no one should assume that will have control of when they are asked to leave a company.

So, I was a very disciplined seller of both options and restricted shares along the way — with lots of colleagues saying I was dumb and should just hold options until they expired after 10 years.

The stock is now down 40% off its high and virtually all outstanding employee options are now worthless. I know many people who should be able to walk out the door who are clinging fearfully to jobs hoping “the stock comes back.” There is no reason to think that is realistic.

People always assume what’s happening today will continue. Reality always says it doesn’t
!

 

[sparky08]

Software developers are lucky in that they were able to write code for their entire career.

But we did need to be able to learn new languages, platforms, etc. It's really nothing like it was when I started in the early '80's.

 

[Sojourner]

Recently, I met a 20-something Georgia Tech computer science grad, likely brilliant and clearly skilled, just getting his career going. I tried not to look at him as if he was Bruce Willis in The Sixth Sense, ie possibly dead but doesn’t know it yet. Or maybe he does know and is figuring out how to prompt the AIs to code faster and better than he’ll ever be able to.

My guess is that a highly skilled graduate from a top-ranked computer science university will have minimal career disruptions due to AI, at least in the near/medium term. From what I've read, AI is nowhere near being able to write highly complex, intricate, sophisticated software in a holistic manner "from soup to nuts". Sure it can suggest (and write code for) the best algorithm to do, say, a dictionary sort or a particularly tricky database query, but it is FAR from being able to write entire applications, much less plan how they should work or design/architect the various layers and components, etc.

 

[audreyh1]

My guess is that a highly skilled graduate from a top-ranked computer science university will have minimal career disruptions due to AI, at least in the near/medium term. From what I've read, AI is nowhere near being able to write highly complex, intricate, sophisticated software in a holistic manner "from soup to nuts". Sure it can suggest (and write code for) the best algorithm to do, say, a dictionary sort or a particularly tricky database query, but it is FAR from being able to write entire applications, much less plan how they should work or design/architect the various layers and components, etc.

Exactly! AI probably cuts out mostly the tedious aspects.

 

[Closet_Gamer]

Evidence suggests that AI helps low to medium performers increase their productivity a lot but does little to impact the performance of top performers. I think it’s likely to eliminate roles of people who weren’t that good but won’t harm the roles of really talented folks.

This is exactly what one would hope a new technology does: improve productivity by forcing less productive people to find more economically productive ways to spend their time.

(That’s a very clinical assessment of what will be a wrenching transition for lots of people. We should have empathy for people who are displaced by these forces.)

 

[Mr._Graybeard]

Evidence suggests that AI helps low to medium performers increase their productivity a lot but does little to impact the performance of top performers. I think it’s likely to eliminate roles of people who weren’t that good but won’t harm the roles of really talented folks.

This is exactly what one would hope a new technology does: improve productivity by forcing less productive people to find more economically productive ways to spend their time.

(That’s a very clinical assessment of what will be a wrenching transition for lots of people. We should have empathy for people who are displaced by these forces.)

My experience with technological innovation is that it reduces the number of employees while transferring their workload onto the people who are left.

 

[Markola]

My guess is that a highly skilled graduate from a top-ranked computer science university will have minimal career disruptions due to AI, at least in the near/medium term. From what I've read, AI is nowhere near being able to write highly complex, intricate, sophisticated software in a holistic manner "from soup to nuts". Sure it can suggest (and write code for) the best algorithm to do, say, a dictionary sort or a particularly tricky database query, but it is FAR from being able to write entire applications, much less plan how they should work or design/architect the various layers and components, etc.

It’s not my field, but this is the worst that AI’s will ever be, so what will this fellow’s role and career be when he’s in his 50s, per the article? I hope he and people like him find ways to surf the wave.

 

[momoney]

My guess is that a highly skilled graduate from a top-ranked computer science university will have minimal career disruptions due to AI, at least in the near/medium term. From what I've read, AI is nowhere near being able to write highly complex, intricate, sophisticated software in a holistic manner "from soup to nuts". Sure it can suggest (and write code for) the best algorithm to do, say, a dictionary sort or a particularly tricky database query, but it is FAR from being able to write entire applications, much less plan how they should work or design/architect the various layers and components, etc.

I don't think I personally would bet on that unless they are a researcher. The junior and mid level developers salaries are stagnating under pressure from outsource/insource developers. These developers will keep taking on more of the top-ranked comp-sci graduate work with the help of AI.

 

[Closet_Gamer]

My experience with technological innovation is that it reduces the number of employees while transferring their workload onto the people who are left.

Exactly.

That is the definition of productivity improvement. You get the same output from a reduced number of people.

When I first started my career it was typical to have one admin supporting 6-8 people. By the time I left it was one admin for perhaps 60-80 people. Yet meetings were still booked, calls were returned, travel still took place, lunches were still arranged and slides were still presented.

That sort of transition is only possible because the technology is taking some sort of friction out of the system. (Or the business was just being run poorly to begin with and someone needed to come along and tighten things up.)

The world had lots few admins than it used to. There is nothing wrong with that … it’s a good thing!

 

[Mr._Graybeard]

Exactly.

That is the definition of productivity improvement. You get the same output from a reduced number of people.

When I first started my career it was typical to have one admin supporting 6-8 people. By the time I left it was one admin for perhaps 60-80 people. Yet meetings were still booked, calls were returned, travel still took place, lunches were still arranged and slides were still presented.

That sort of transition is only possible because the technology is taking some sort of friction out of the system. (Or the business was just being run poorly to begin with and someone needed to come along and tighten things up.)

The world had lots few admins than it used to. There is nothing wrong with that … it’s a good thing!

I didn't have any administrative role for the last half-dozen years of my career -- I had stepped away from that. But our last "upgrade" increased my workload significantly. To quote another wordsmith in the trenches with me: "Every upgrade is a downgrade."

 

[Koolau]

I often see threads on this board where people are longing for retirement in their 40s, even 30s. I enjoyed work right up to the day I decided to hang it up.

Another issue is the feast-or-famine nature of a lot of creative fields. I wasn't making real money until I landed at a metropolitan paper in my late 30s, and even then it was basically a middle-class wage. My chemical engineer/attorney sister was making multiple six figures and living abroad on the megacorp dime at the same career point. That said, she also enjoyed her work, but when you have the corner office, life is good.

Not that I'm complaining about my lot! I did what I wanted to do and still achieved FIRE. It was a fun ride.

Reminds me of my sister who was a copy-reader for a good sized paper. She never made much money and though she loved what she did, she was always unhappy.

My scientific c@reer was much better paid and had better security. Eventually, my sister's paper began finding ways to get rid of their staff and she was "retired early." Sad, really.

 

[GenXguy]

I don’t see why it’s focused on GenZ. Plenty of Boomers hit by technology also

I didn't see any reference of Gen Z. Just Gen X, which are older folks than Gen Z.

 

[MichaelB]

I didn't see any reference of Gen Z. Just Gen X, which are older folks than Gen Z.

AI will affect all the Gens, and also all the non-Gens, in some way. People whose skills, contributions and performance are average or less will find it challenging.

My pre-teen grandchildren may be impacted differently. When they reach high school AI will be part of their education and daily lives, so it may be something they can use to their advantage.

 

[Bestwifeever]

The crux of the article if you don't subscribe or get a freebie:

"If you entered media or image-making in the ’90s — magazine publishing, newspaper journalism, photography, graphic design, advertising, music, film, TV — there’s a good chance that you are now doing something else for work. That’s because those industries have shrunk or transformed themselves radically, shutting out those whose skills were once in high demand."
….

(Not in response to Neil, just copying his quote from the article)

This article is most interesting and newsworthy on many levels to me personally (DH’s career was spent as a creative in newspaper publishing and I also worked in publishing—we have zero STEM background) but do remember it is being reported by a (drumroll) newspaper journalist….

 

[Bestwifeever]

Also, the first time I read a newspaper article for free online the day before it was published in the paid newspaper that would be delivered to our home, I knew the fat was in the fire for print media, long before AI was on the scene. No one figured out how to monetize the work until recently because they were all giving it away, and now we complain about the paywalls.

 

[Markola]

I am not sanguine that any of us can grasp the disruptive implications of accelerating AI outfitted with an increasingly robotic labor force that never has to sleep. I’m going to choose to believe the disruptions underway will be a net positive for humanity overall, simply because the emerging economy will need consumers.

 

[Markola]

“Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff has confirmed the firm would not be hiring any more engineers in 2025 because of the effects of artificial intelligence.”

Salesforce CEO says no plans to hire more engineers, as AI is doing a great job

Salesforce sees agentic AI as its future

www.techradar.com

“Salesforce’s initial set of AI agents will focus on roles like sales reps, service agents, personal shoppers and sales coaches, with companies able to quick edit or customize for their specific needs.‘

Salesforce unveils its Agentforce future of AI to the world

Agentforce is "what AI was meant to be", Salesforce says

www.techradar.com

 

[MichaelB]

“Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff has confirmed the firm would not be hiring any more engineers in 2025 because of the effects of artificial intelligence.”

Salesforce CEO says no plans to hire more engineers, as AI is doing a great job

Salesforce sees agentic AI as its future

www.techradar.com

“Salesforce’s initial set of AI agents will focus on roles like sales reps, service agents, personal shoppers and sales coaches, with companies able to quick edit or customize for their specific needs.‘

Salesforce unveils its Agentforce future of AI to the world

Agentforce is "what AI was meant to be", Salesforce says

www.techradar.com

I would not take that article at face value. Salesforce is promoting an “AI agent” as a core business offering, so if they stop hiring I would suspect one possibility is their product is not meeting their expectations.

 

[Markola]

I would not take that article at face value. Salesforce is promoting an “AI agent” as a core business offering, so if they stop hiring I would suspect one possibility is their product is not meeting their expectations.

Well, I do.

"…We're seeing 30% productivity increase on engineering, and we're going to really continue to ride that up. And we're going to grow sales pretty dramatically this year.”

 

[sdawson]

I was able to read the initial link for some reason. Perhaps my 1 free article.

I have to say that the folks discussed in the article had plenty of warning to adapt. We all coudlsee that print media, journalism, photography, movies and television were going to change and jobs dwindle. We could see this happening fifteen and twenty years ago. While I feel for them, in the end, in any career, one has to read the trends, keep skills up to date, and be willing to make moves to adjacent fields with room to grow.

But the discussion on AI is correct in this thread. AI will transform most jobs. Today, folks must learn how to integrate ChateGPT or Claude or other AI tools into their daily work -- whether they are an administrative assistant, or doctor, or scientist, or software developer -- -whatever you are doing you will be at a competiitive disadvantage if you don't and will not be able to get jobs if you stand still.

Regarding software (my domain), how one writes code is changing drastically. Developers are still needed, and they need to be competent, need to understand code being written by AI. Every developer must embrace what is known as "Pair Programming" where two people write the code together. But in this case the second person will be the AI tool being used. That pair will be more productive and generate better code than a lone person can do. The lone programmer who does not use AI will not survive.

However, I have reached out to two of my daughters and my son in law this week to urge them to get up to speed on using AI in their fields (one is a social worker, the other is a biologist). There are plenty of (free) ways to learn how to use AI --- just go to Coursera and look around. Or one can start with youtube tutorials if that's what it takes to start . It just takes the willingness to spend the time doing so. I guess my point is -- at all ages, when change is in the air, as it is now with AI, one can not ignore it, one has to think about how that will change your field, then invest the time to change how you work, to adapt to the new reality.

 

[Koogie]

I have several friends that make extensive use of AI (programmer, engineer and commercial salesman) and we had a discussion about it the other day (we are all early/mid fifties Gen X).

They love AI.

I don't use it but the observation I made is that we never thought growing up that the first workers AI would displace are what I call the "semi-creatives". Graphic Design, tech writers, copy editors, etc..

So far it still cannot write an original underivative opera or novel, etc.. ie: acts of original "genius" but since it upgrades at such a rate...

 

[shortstop14]

My daughter is in the travel blogger world, and many of them seem to be stopping their efforts. Traffic to their sites is dropping. And there is no compensation for the AI scraping their information and repackaging it. Seems like intellectual property theft, but apparently it isn't quite regarded that way legally.

During my IT career, there were always code generators and other tools that increased an individual programmer's productivity. Tools changed and evolved constantly since the 1970s. I'm impressed by what I see of AI abilities to take this farther. However, offshoring had a much bigger impact on the job prospects of older engineers during my career. Software developers in India were much cheaper to hire than US developers. Fortunately for me, someone had to do the business analysis to tell them what to code, and to actually deploy the results.

 

[Diogenes]

Right, that’s a super risky strategy. You better be well on your way saving/investing for retirement before reaching your 50s so that you’re not too far from FI.

Indeed. That's the premise, one supposes, of site like this. The problem obtrudes, when we're financially prepared but not psychologically prepared. It's all fine to hypothesize about leaving the workforce, eventually, on one's own terms... but to suddenly have it happen, with minimal recourse to re-engage, is traumatic.

I think it’s likely to eliminate roles of people who weren’t that good but won’t harm the roles of really talented folks.

This is especially caustic for a lot of us late-career folks in our 50s. We're decently competent, but not outstanding. Hard to replace, but not irreplaceable. Yet we're also expensive, and slow to adapt to novelties. It's just good business-sense to "retire" us early.

When I first started my career it was typical to have one admin supporting 6-8 people. By the time I left it was one admin for perhaps 60-80 people. Yet meetings were still booked, calls were returned, travel still took place, lunches were still arranged and slides were still presented.

That sort of transition is only possible because the technology is taking some sort of friction out of the system. (Or the business was just being run poorly to begin with and someone needed to come along and tighten things up.)

Another factor is the dumping of the administrative burden onto the engineers. Decades ago, engineers would do... engineering. Travel-logistics, document preparation of various sorts, and so on... was handled by clerks specializing in those fields. Even the computer programming was handled by... programmers. Engineers would write formulas, and the coding and post-processing was done by others. Today, engineers are expected to do it all, acquiring the skills to do it all.