Gold - 13 year cup and handle breakup

[Koolau]

I was w*rking on my NW for. '24/25 and noticed that both gold and silver were up (to a first approximation) 25% (based on my ratio of the two). Not too bad though hind-sight says I should have traded for Nvidia.

I guess that's a FWIW as it's worth nothing until you sell it - and I'm not interested in selling my small stash. I still consider it as a "whole life" insurance policy. It has the insurance feature (minimally - an inflation hedge plus maybe a SHTF insurance) and the potential for growth.

PMs are NOT for everyone. Worse than no PMs would be having a Midas complex (no, not the muffler repair shop!).

 

[FiveDriver]

That is a very pretty coin. There's gold up in them there hills !!

I understand why you don't want to sell it -- but I'd be curious to know what your cuz's co-workers think it's worth.

 

[Koolau]

No significant amount of Gold coins, just one my Dad left me that my grandfather left him. A minted coin from Haile Gold mine in Lancaster, SC that he worked part time at after retiring. As I understand it, there are very few of these. I have a cousin that works for them since they started operating again, and when I showed it to her she said the people that work there are always looking for them and would pay a fortune for it. I will never sell it!
I do have 10k shares of FTCO though that has done pretty well.

Flieger
View attachment 54144View attachment 54145

That coin is going for about $2K on eBay.

Not bad for 1/2 oz.

 

[Koolau]

My favorite gold buy is one I've mentioned before. It was my very first gold coin. I bought a 2 peso Mexican gold coin for $2 about 1974 I think. Now I see them from $190 to $250. Not too shabby. Not Nvidia but not bad.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

$2800. Took a while, as it ran up further to around $2790 in late October, then traded down quite a bit post election. But, here we are at a new record (in terms of the US Dollar, it had been setting records in other currencies for a while).

ETA: The miners are still down from their October highs. For example, GDX had a 52-week high in October of $44.50, it is currently at $39.47.

$2900 this morning.

 

[Koolau]

I have heard that there is great demand to repatriate gold stored outside the USA as there could be tariffs soon. Said demand has shown that there is only so much gold readily available (no idea if fraud or other issues involved - just LONG delays in meeting the demand which subsequently drives up world prices.)

Can't confirm any of this, so YMMV.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

I have heard that there is great demand to repatriate gold stored outside the USA as there could be tariffs soon. Said demand has shown that there is only so much gold readily available (no idea if fraud or other issues involved - just LONG delays in meeting the demand which subsequently drives up world prices.)

Can't confirm any of this, so YMMV.

There's an old saying: Uness you have physical posession of something, it really isn't yours (or can easily taken away). That is the fundamental issue with gold in ETF form, owning Gold/Silver miners (both of which I do), or owning that which can not be discussed at someplace like coinbase (again, which I do).

My thesis has been and continues to be that Gold will work its way higher. As with all investing (aka speculation), we shall see. All I know is that right now the trend is my friend.

 

[AudiDudi]

There's an old saying: Uness you have physical posession of something, it really isn't yours (or can easily taken away). That is the fundamental issue with gold in ETF form, owning Gold/Silver miners (both of which I do), or owning that which can not be discussed at someplace like coinbase (again, which I do).

My thesis has been and continues to be that Gold will work its way higher. As with all investing (aka speculation), we shall see. All I know is that right now the trend is my friend.

It has been a good yr so far for gold stocks. The Junior Miner ETF is up 45% YTD (112% YoY) and one of my little gold stocks is up 37% YTD. (95% YoY). As always, I wonder why I didn't buy more

 

[GrayHare]

There's an old saying: Uness you have physical posession of something, it really isn't yours (or can easily taken away).

Of course, possession didn't help gold holders when FDR came along.

 

[Koolau]

Of course, possession didn't help gold holders when FDR came along...

EO 6102 was a sad day in USA history. Of course, while there were plenty of prosecutions under the order, a lot of people never did turn in their gold. Let us hope we never make such a mistake again.

Early prosecutions were stymied by a badly written/executed EO. IIRC the EO had to be rewritten and signed by other than the President (Sec of Treasury??).

Interesting times that my parents and grandparents remembered well.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

$2900 this morning.

And here we are....$3000 earlier this morning.

$GLD +13.6% YTD, +36.7% YoY
$SLV +16.7% YTD, +34.9% YoY
$GDX +27.4% YTD, +42.6% YoY
$GDXJ +27.4% YTD, +47.75 YoY
$SIL +23.5% YTD, +49% YoY

ETA: I would not be surprised to see some pullback/resistance before we have a close above $3000, but would also not be surprised to see a quick run up once a $3000 close and test happens.

 

[youngr12]

I currently have a small long position in GDXJ that's doing well. Might look to close it out today to take the win or at least reduce size and take some profits. I've been trading GDX, GDXJ, and sometimes GLD, mostly from the long side. I will probably continue to keep a small long position in one or more of them.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

I currently have a small long position in GDXJ that's doing well. Might look to close it out today to take the win or at least reduce size and take some profits. I've been trading GDX, GDXJ, and sometimes GLD, mostly from the long side. I will probably continue to keep a small long position in one or more of them.

Thus my comment regarding "round number" psychology.

OTOH, it is (almost) never a good idea to have a bet/position that represents too much exposure to one thing/sector, and usually not a bad idea to have house money to play with.

I have some GDX, GDXJ, SIL, GLD, SLV. Did the GDXJ as the juniors seem to have less legacy weight that some of the big boys in GDX have. I also have some FCX (Freeport) but don't count that in my PM category (even though they do get gold from their copper operations).

I am at about 9%+ overall weight (net worth) in PM's and Miners, so my exposure is getting up there.

ETA: Maybe I should look at writing some calls on some of the GDX/GDXJ/SIL.

 

[youngr12]

Thus my comment regarding "round number" psychology.

It's not the 3k that I'm reacting to today. It's just that my position is reaching max profit to the upside. I trade options and I have a couple of jade lizards with the price is hitting the calls. I could wait and possibly take a little more if GDXJ pulls back, but instead I'll probably take the profits and redeploy the capital.

For those that don't speak options trading, sorry. I have a position that benefited from the price in GDXJ going up, but the amount I can make is capped on the upside and right now it's pretty close to that cap.

I hope that makes sense.

Thanks!

 

[youngr12]

ETA: Maybe I should look at writing some calls on some of the GDX/GDXJ/SIL.

I have covered calls in SLV. It's usually a little more liquid than SIL so the bid/ask spread is tighter and it's easier to trade. Nice and cheap too, so it's good to test out strategies with real money.