Seeking some views and advice on this.
Like many, I've run dozens of calculations in FireCalc and other calculators around my numbers and the projections. I like the "portfolio with random performance option" in FireCalc and setting a mean return with standard deviation and inflation rate. Note, I don't live in the US so the default market options aren't all that useful for me, even if I do have some exposure to US equities.
I plan to do a Geo-arbitrage and relocate to a LCOL area from a HCOL part of Aussie - reducing living expenses considerably.
My portfolio tracker tools give me really accurate data about average returns year on year. I don't know why I only started tracking with these tools 2-3 years ago as they're just the best thing! I have a broad mix in my portfolio across a number of asset classes, which looks a like a 70/30 split currently. 30 cash and 70, Equities, precious metals, property funds, & some alternative investments.
Running weighted average return calculations across these I get a pretty healthy figure over the last 5 years of 18%.
Obviously, 18% pa compounds very nicely over time, but what I'm concerned about is 5 years worth of data enough to project this out 10,15 or 20 years? I'm 12 years away from a pension (social security), which is actually means-tested in Australia.
As the saying goes, the long run is really just a series of short runs you need to navigate well.
The upshot is that I would have a withdrawal rate closer to 6% but FireCalc reports this isn't an issue, given the inputs. I'm pretty conservative on the whole so what do people think about that rate and what should I be looking out for or reassessing here? I'm mid 50s, no dependants. There will be modest inheritances at a point in time, but I tend to discount this in calcs.
One thing that lurks in my mind a bit is what if country relocation doesn't pan out long term and I move back to a M/HCol area in my 60s or 70s. I guess the answer is an obvious one and something to think about and / or plan for.
Thanks.
Like many, I've run dozens of calculations in FireCalc and other calculators around my numbers and the projections. I like the "portfolio with random performance option" in FireCalc and setting a mean return with standard deviation and inflation rate. Note, I don't live in the US so the default market options aren't all that useful for me, even if I do have some exposure to US equities.
I plan to do a Geo-arbitrage and relocate to a LCOL area from a HCOL part of Aussie - reducing living expenses considerably.
My portfolio tracker tools give me really accurate data about average returns year on year. I don't know why I only started tracking with these tools 2-3 years ago as they're just the best thing! I have a broad mix in my portfolio across a number of asset classes, which looks a like a 70/30 split currently. 30 cash and 70, Equities, precious metals, property funds, & some alternative investments.
Running weighted average return calculations across these I get a pretty healthy figure over the last 5 years of 18%.
Obviously, 18% pa compounds very nicely over time, but what I'm concerned about is 5 years worth of data enough to project this out 10,15 or 20 years? I'm 12 years away from a pension (social security), which is actually means-tested in Australia.
As the saying goes, the long run is really just a series of short runs you need to navigate well.
The upshot is that I would have a withdrawal rate closer to 6% but FireCalc reports this isn't an issue, given the inputs. I'm pretty conservative on the whole so what do people think about that rate and what should I be looking out for or reassessing here? I'm mid 50s, no dependants. There will be modest inheritances at a point in time, but I tend to discount this in calcs.
One thing that lurks in my mind a bit is what if country relocation doesn't pan out long term and I move back to a M/HCol area in my 60s or 70s. I guess the answer is an obvious one and something to think about and / or plan for.
Thanks.