Hurricane Milton

S

socca

Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Joined
Nov 14, 2005
Messages
1,654
Well, here we go again. Saturday 5 pm ET update from the NHC bumped the predicted eye path from straight over my house in Sarasota to a direct hit on Tampa. It would be unbelievable if the predicted path keeps moving north over the next few days so that the Big Bend folks get hit yet again with a major hurricane. Looks like hurricane prep will be on my agenda soon. :hide:
 
That's me in Tampa, but not on the coast. Still could be sustained 50 to 60 mph.
 
Dtail said:
That's me in Tampa, but not on the coast. Still could be sustained 50 to 60 mph.
Click to expand...
You are on the "Clean" side though ...... so no worries ...... hopefully :). We are on the clean side for a change also. Just a little noise for us NE Floridians. I do pity the southerners though, so happy we chose N.E. Fla., so far no regrets even though we are very close to the coast. 10' above sea level in an "X" flood zone does help I suppose.
 
Well the NHC prediction is now a CAT 4. My Accuweather center line of the storm passes over a street in my complex. Still can change though.
 
Still plenty of time for "beneficial" adjustments to the predicted track (can't get much worse than the current predicted track). Hurricane Ian came ashore 80 miles away as a CAT 4 in 2022. Wasn't too bad in Sarasota. I was sitting on the porch when a 100 MPH gust came through and there was the CRACK CRACK CRACK! of my neighbors' pool cages collapsing. :hide:
 
We have an 18 yr old pool cage. However there is some protection from a conservation area with lots of trees beyond our back yard.
 
I feel for you Floridians. I lived well over 50 years in a very hurricane prone area. (Houston) Maybe not as bad as you guys in Florida but still, we got our share. Hurricanes were probably reason #4 why we moved away from there when I retired. Of course, no matter where you live there is going to be some level of risks from natures fury. If it's not from hurricanes, it's tornadoes or earthquakes or fires, or extreme heat or extreme blizzards, etc.
 
Last edited:
Went shopping this morning for gas (for car and generator), food, and cash from the ATM. No crowds anywhere I went. If Hurricane Irma is any guide the folks who procrastinate may have more trouble.
 
socca said:
Went shopping this morning for gas (for car and generator), food, and cash from the ATM. No crowds anywhere I went. If Hurricane Irma is any guide the folks who procrastinate may have more trouble.
Click to expand...
Very smart... Wait until Tuesday/Wednesday and let us know what it looks like.
 
We'll have to hope the wind speed predictions again end up applying to few, and drop off rapidly away from the coastline.
 
socca said:
Went shopping this morning for gas (for car and generator), food, and cash from the ATM. No crowds anywhere I went. If Hurricane Irma is any guide the folks who procrastinate may have more trouble.
Click to expand...
Yeah went to Publix at 7am this morning. Semi crowded, but got everything I needed.
 
I follow a meteorologists on Facebook, who predicted the tracking and intensity of Helene spot on, as well as other significant storms, with impressive accuracy concerning their strengths and paths. So, yes, I know, Facebook. But da@n, he has been unbelievably accurate over the years I’ve been following him.

So for what it’s worth to those here, he is predicting that Milton will hit Tampa Bay as a Category 4 or very strong 3 on Wednesday, then head straight across to Orlando, then out to sea. He was unequivocal in telling folks in Milton’s path to prepare, but then leave.

Time will tell of course,
 
Based on my look at the projected track as of 1pm CDT, it appears the track has shifted south a little, which is better for those in Tampa. The right front quadrant of a hurricane (from about 1:00 to 3:00 on a clock face if the storm is moving toward 12:00) is the most dangerous part, as the forward motion of the storm is added to the cyclonic winds. So better to be left of the track (north of it in this case).
 
Just got back from Asheville yesterday after a week without power and running water, and limited gas to go look for items because we spent too much gas trying to find gas. Had to put a sign out requesting drinking water; neighbors helped, thankfully. We were pretty desperate to do that. No shower for 8 days. Flushing toilets with creek water. We were thrilled to finally be able to evacuate, as you can imagine.

Fly home to Sarasota and now this. Re-supplied our hurricane needs this morning. And now we wait and hope for the best.
 
simple girl said:
Just got back from Asheville yesterday after a week without power and running water, and limited gas to go look for items because we spent too much gas trying to find gas. Had to put a sign out requesting drinking water; neighbors helped, thankfully. We were pretty desperate to do that. No shower for 8 days. Flushing toilets with creek water. We were thrilled to finally be able to evacuate, as you can imagine.

Fly home to Sarasota and now this. Re-supplied our hurricane needs this morning. And now we wait and hope for the best.
Click to expand...
Ouch...
 
simple girl said:
Just got back from Asheville yesterday after a week without power and running water, and limited gas to go look for items because we spent too much gas trying to find gas. Had to put a sign out requesting drinking water; neighbors helped, thankfully. We were pretty desperate to do that. No shower for 8 days. Flushing toilets with creek water. We were thrilled to finally be able to evacuate, as you can imagine.

Fly home to Sarasota and now this. Re-supplied our hurricane needs this morning. And now we wait and hope for the best.
Click to expand...
Crazy unfortunate set of events. Let's hope and pray this one is not too bad.
 
simple girl said:
Just got back from Asheville yesterday after a week without power and running water, and limited gas to go look for items because we spent too much gas trying to find gas. Had to put a sign out requesting drinking water; neighbors helped, thankfully. We were pretty desperate to do that. No shower for 8 days. Flushing toilets with creek water. We were thrilled to finally be able to evacuate, as you can imagine.

Fly home to Sarasota and now this. Re-supplied our hurricane needs this morning. And now we wait and hope for the best.
Click to expand...
Glad to hear you are safe and home.
 
Gumby said:
Based on my look at the projected track as of 1pm CDT, it appears the track has shifted south a little, which is better for those in Tampa. The right front quadrant of a hurricane (from about 1:00 to 3:00 on a clock face if the storm is moving toward 12:00) is the most dangerous part, as the forward motion of the storm is added to the cyclonic winds. So better to be left of the track (north of it in this case).
Click to expand...
Yep. It would be handy if Sarasota ends up north of the eye upon landfall. As of Sunday evening the eye track is composed of two parts: straight east and then northeast. The models often have trouble correctly predicting turns (Irma was an excellent example), although in this case the turn isn't nearly as sharp as the prediction challenge Irma presented (a 90 degree turn). For Milton if the "straight east" part lasts longer than currently predicted this could pull the eye track south - good news for Sarasota, bad news for folks further south.

Today I took exterior and interior photos of my house in case I need to argue with an insurance adjuster. I strive to lead a simple life yet it took 30 photos to document all of my cr*p. :nonono:
 
Not because of Milton, we left Bradenton, FL this morning, headed to Apex, NC (Raleigh), but upon seeing NOAA’s predictions, we are extremely pleased to be leaving.
 
Milton up to 150 mph currently. Expected landfall at 125 mph. Could be higher.
 
ShokWaveRider said:
Dtail take care. How far are you from Tampa Bay? I think you are north if I am not mistaken.
Click to expand...
I am officially in Tampa, but it is effectively a suburb called the New Tampa area which is in the most northeast quadrant of Tampa.
I am about 35 miles from the beach.
If it is a direct hit to Tampa, the mph could still be 75 to 80 mph by the time it reaches here.
Thanks SWR for your wishes.
 
Not gonna lie, not liking this Milton. Concerned for property damage and discomfort until infrastructure is restored. I'm on high ground so not too worried about personal safety (I'm actually looking out my non-impact rated windows at the staged emergency response equipment) but I'm not confident about Cat 2+ winds leaving me unscathed. And why always at night... current prediction for landfall.

Last 24hrs have been constant convoys of dump trucks fueling up across the street (dozens of tankers) racing to remove debris from Helene. Linemen and "Comfort station" trailers also staged there as well. Pretty impressive preparation/response.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

E
Let's talk Self Driving Cars again!
20 21 22
joesxm3
J
P
South West Asian dryer sheet
Major Tom
Major Tom
W2R
Real Estate Bust hitting hard!
2
Zoocat
Z
S
Billy's short story
peteyperson
P
mickeyd
Military Prison Blues...
John Galt
J

Latest posts

Back
Top Bottom