In case you’ve ever doubted “Wall St isn’t Main St”

[disneysteve]

These two headlines appeared at the same time in the business news today.

 

[FREE866]

Consumers are still spending , corporate profits are surging, and earnings estimates are continuing to rise. That’s what matters, for now.

 

[disneysteve]

Consumers are still spending , corporate profits are surging, and earnings estimates are continuing to rise. That’s what matters, for now.

That's what matters on Wall St. It's very much not what matters on Main St.

 

[FREE866]

That's what matters on Wall St. It's very much not what matters on Main St.

Correct. Should have clarified

 

[TripleLindy]

corporate profits are surging, and earnings estimates are continuing to rise.

And no one ever mentions that when the blame for inflation is being assigned. There’s a reason markets have surged since the pandemic and much of it is due to the Street’s insatiable demand for profit growth. And once prices increase, you rarely see them decrease, even when the condition that caused the increase has been rectified.

 

[disneysteve]

And no one ever mentions that when the blame for inflation is being assigned. There’s a reason markets have surged since the pandemic and much of it is due to the Street’s insatiable demand for profit growth. And once prices increase, you rarely see them decrease, even when the condition that caused the increase has been rectified.

Exactly. Why isn’t inflation impacting corporate profits? All the higher prices are doing is increasing profits, which means the higher prices aren’t necessary at all.

 

[jimbee]

Exactly. Why isn’t inflation impacting corporate profits? All the higher prices are doing is increasing profits, which means the higher prices aren’t necessary at all.

I'll just leave this here...

 

[FREE866]

I think it’s important to note that historically we are currently not in a “ high inflation “ environment. I know the headlines are screaming that but a 3-4 % rate is not high.

 

[CaptTom]

I think it’s important to note that historically we are currently not in a “ high inflation “ environment. I know the headlines are screaming that but a 3-4 % rate is not high.

I'd love to live somewhere there was a 3-4% annual rate. Around here it seems it's that much per month.

Personally, I believe my wallet more than the "experts" who generate these numbers.

 

[disneysteve]

I think it’s important to note that historically we are currently not in a “ high inflation “ environment. I know the headlines are screaming that but a 3-4 % rate is not high.

Except it isn’t 3-4%. For the most recent quarter inflation rose at an annualized rate of 7.1%.

 

[FREE866]

Except it isn’t 3-4%. For the most recent quarter inflation rose at an annualized rate of 7.1%.

This is from the US Bureau of Labor.

CPI Home

www.bls.gov

 

[G-Money]

Weren't the people at BLS and who calculate federal data around employment all fired because they weren't, um, "enhancing" the data to be favorable to specific outcomes? I'm willing to believe 7% over 3-4% because honestly it feels more like 10% in the last quarter.

People say "things are fine" except for the cost of energy. Nothing to see here. Except that the cost of energy is everything.

 

[TickTock]

The CPI Home page shows overall 3.8% inflation for the past 12 months.

On the same site, going to

• Historical CPI-U, March 2026 (XLSX)(database)

Shows a March 2026 index of 330.213 and a December 2025 index of 324.054.

If my math is right, the 3/26 over 12/25 annualized to 7.6% inflation.

So it depends on if you're looking year-over-year or quarter-over-quarter.

 

[disneysteve]

So it depends on if you're looking year-over-year or quarter-over-quarter.

Right. Year over year it’s close to 4%, which is double the Fed’s target. But quarter over quarter it’s just over 7%. That’s 3.5 times the goal.

 

[Aerides]

Mod Note:

We no doubt all remember that Inflation discussions quickly become a argumentative cesspool. Let's try to avoid that here.

 

[freedomatlast]

I'll take annualized 7% inflation anytime when my investments have increased an annualized 42%.

 

[mrfeh]

Except it isn’t 3-4%. For the most recent quarter inflation rose at an annualized rate of 7.1%.

That's not how annual inflation is calculated.

If we have an upcoming month where CPI is .1% MoM, are you going to say current inflation is 1.2%?

 

[G-Money]

Why can't we have low inflation and good investment growth? I'd rather have that than doubting the wild growth in the market contrary and with disregard to so many economic indicators. It makes me think all that growth could literally vanish when the market decides to sober up.

 

[Koolau]

I've been surprised at some things that I buy often have not gone up locally here on the mainland from last year. I'm paying the same this year for Diet Pepsi and less for blueberries. Gas at Sams is currently 50 cents more than I paid last year. That was a shocker.

 

[target2019]

NJ Gasoline Year Ago Avg.$3.068.

Current Avg.$4.523.

I wonder if Main Street is at the beach this weekend?

 

[disneysteve]

If we have an upcoming month where CPI is .1% MoM, are you going to say current inflation is 1.2%?

Yes. The annualized rate based on that month would be 1.2%. That’s what the rate would be if that trend continued. And based on the most recent quarter the annualized rate is 7.1%. That’s what the rate will be if the current trend continues.

 

[mrfeh]

Yes. The annualized rate based on that month would be 1.2%. That’s what the rate would be if that trend continued. And based on the most recent quarter the annualized rate is 7.1%. That’s what the rate will be if the current trend continues.

Doesn't make any sense.

If your methodology has you changing annual inflation rate from 1% to 7% in consecutive months, there is clearly a problem.

The annual inflation rate is known. No reason to manufacture numbers.

 

[Koolau]

I'll take annualized 7% inflation anytime when my investments have increased an annualized 42%.

Yeah, if you could count on that, it would be a fair trade. I haven't calculated lately but it feels like most days are a new high - or close to it. Inflation is definitely worrisome, but based on investments, it's more an irritation than anything else.

Yep. My investments are adding more most days that I spend. I can live with that.

 

[COcheesehead]

You can make money with inflation by being in real estate or equities. Not so much in most bonds.

 

[disneysteve]

I'll take annualized 7% inflation anytime when my investments have increased an annualized 42%.

Sure. Me too. But you and I and most everyone else in this group are in a tiny minority. 90+% of Americans aren't benefiting from the bull market the way we are. They are struggling to put gas in the car and food on the table.