Interesting Bill Bengen (Father Of 4% Rule) Video

[Magus]

He must have decided to employ the 3rd party service to determine his market timing since he admitted to botching the entrance back into the market after exiting during/prior to the 2008 financial crisis.

That was me - I got out within 7% of top in 2007-2008, but didn’t get back in till it was nearly entirely back. Adjusted for dividends I did exactly the market, although I suppose I slept a bit better.

3-5% works well as long as you have flexibility for a third deviation left tail event (cut back for a couple years, work part time, etc). I’ll be able to get away from a higher than 4% “withdraw” simply because my rentals generate 7% from their current equity value in cash alone (not including principal pay down or appreciation).

 

[I am He]

I do wish Rob would have asked what he spends and what does he have for income? Assuming his family gets SS and perhaps an annuity, he might not need to tap the portfolio? So while it's easy to call him a hypocrite, the bottom line is it's his decision.

I also think there's a big difference between a true market timer vs someone who is strictly trying to limit losses. For ex. I've been in cash vs bonds. I'm not trying to win as much as trying not to lose.

 

[mickeyd]

We all understand that the 4% rule is no more than a guide to start out with. I doubt anyone really follows it to a T. It is a good place to start if you are in your 20s and have no clue.

 

[arcyallen]

We all understand that the 4% rule is no more than a guide to start out with. I doubt anyone really follows it to a T. It is a good place to start if you are in your 20s and have no clue.

I agree it's a guide. It's too bad it isn't called "The 4% idea" or "The 4% plan" or something softer. You throw the word rule in there, and suddenly many people -do- consider it rock solid. I wish it wasn't called a "rule". I've seen many people (some even on here) plan on that 4% as rock solid. "Rock solid" and "future financial planning" don't play very well together!

 

[Time2]

I agree it's a guide. It's too bad it isn't called "The 4% idea" or "The 4% plan" or something softer. You throw the word rule in there, and suddenly many people -do- consider it rock solid. I wish it wasn't called a "rule". I've seen many people (some even on here) plan on that 4% as rock solid. "Rock solid" and "future financial planning" don't play very well together!

I started using, "The 4% guide".

 

[mathjak107]

I have been using bob clyatts 95/5 for seven years now