Interesting results with FC and SS.

[old medic]

With all the ongoing "When to take SS" discussions, I went playing with FC... of course YMMV...
Have FC set with our portfolio, my pension/SSD started, DW estimated pension starting 2026, SS @ 62
Increased our spending $12K a year until we dropped under 100% (about 5X what we actually need)
Each year results after SS increases. Her break-even age is 78.9@ 62 to 82.7@69 years
SS age/ Success rate/ Average remaining
62 84.0% $641K
63 88.2% $664K
64 89.8% $678K
65 92.3% $723K
66 92.4% $753K
67 91.6% $777K
68 86.6% $730K
69 86.6% $748K
70 78.2% $824K

 

[rembrandt]

With all the ongoing "When to take SS" discussions, I went playing with FC... of course YMMV...
Have FC set with our portfolio, my pension/SSD started, DW estimated pension starting 2026, SS @ 62
Increased our spending $12K a year until we dropped under 100% (about 5X what we actually need)
Each year results after SS increases. Her break-even age is 78.9@ 62 to 82.7@69 years
SS age/ Success rate/ Average remaining
62 84.0% $641K
63 88.2% $664K
64 89.8% $678K
65 92.3% $723K
66 92.4% $753K
67 91.6% $777K
68 86.6% $730K
69 86.6% $748K
70 78.2% $824K

What is FC?

 

[marko]

What is FC?

FireCalc

 

[Dtail]

If you want a more realistic result from Firecalc, I would input expenses at a more realistic level. It could give you different results on the SS breakeven point.

 

[Koolau]

If you want a more realistic result from Firecalc, I would input expenses at a more realistic level. It could give you different results on the SS breakeven point.

Perhaps my conservative (financially speaking) nature, but I always "stressed" my expenses (maybe adding 20% so I'd never be too surprised by any lumpy/unexpected expenses.).

Certainly, realistic would be a good approach as well - assuming you have a really good handle on expenses.

 

[old medic]

Perhaps my conservative (financially speaking) nature, but I always "stressed" my expenses (maybe adding 20% so I'd never be too surprised by any lumpy/unexpected expenses.).

My idea was to max it to the point of failing. I dropped the spending back just 12K and our end average jumped to over 2 million starting at 62 and going up from there.

 

[Dtail]

My idea was to max it to the point of failing. I dropped the spending back just 12K and our end average jumped to over 2 million starting at 62 and going up from there.

Then it is just using Firecalc in a stress test what if scenario. All different ways to analyze.

 

[old medic]

Then it is just using Firecalc in a stress test what if scenario. All different ways to analyze.

Yes and have looked at many different scenarios. We wont be jet setting around the world, but are far better off than we ever dreamed....

 

[marko]

Then it is just using Firecalc in a stress test what if scenario. All different ways to analyze.

In a similar way, I use FC as a SHTF stress test. I cut my portfolio in half (or more) and see how I'd fare should some black swan were to surface.

Good to know and comforting in my case.

 

[EastWest Gal]

I just ran FC with a 50% reduction in my portfolio and got a success rate of 80%, but with SS starting at FRA, which includes 50% spousal at the same time (DH is a few months older), it jumped back to 100% without cutting spending. Comforting as well.

 

[Rianne]

Just to verify, spending means withdrawal from portfolio. It's confusing because I used to enter total spending in the box.

 

[marko]

Just to verify, spending means withdrawal from portfolio. It's confusing because I used to enter total spending in the box.

I don't think so. In addition to portfolio withdrawals it should include SS, pensions, other incomes and include taxes too....all your spending, of which, a certain amount comes from your portfolio. That's why there's boxes to input that information.

 

[HI Bill]

I don't think so. In addition to portfolio withdrawals it should include SS, pensions, other incomes and include taxes too....all your spending, of which, a certain amount comes from your portfolio. That's why there's boxes to input that information.

Correct. That's why adding your SS into FC shows that the SORR is lowered when you're getting closer to the age you take it.

 

[pb4uski]

Just to verify, spending means withdrawal from portfolio. It's confusing because I used to enter total spending in the box.

No withdrawals would be spending less income like SS, pensions, side hustles, etc. If your speding exceeds your income then the remainder needs to come from savings.

 

[Koolau]

My plan only has 21 years left, so I'm guessing I could cut my stash by 50% and still get 100% with FC.