Is this really excess funds?

[oldcrowcall]

My retirement portolio survives 98% in the McRetire monte carlo analysis using 6% return, 8. standard deviation, 3.75 inflation rate out to age 92. I used a portfolio balance about $200,000 less than what is in there. Using the Firecalc I get 100% survivability, again using $200,000 less than the actual portfolio. Question- given these results can I rely on  the $200,000 as surplus funds not needed for retirement or is that too risky? Knowledgeable comments appreciated.

 

[Nords]

Question- given these results can I rely on  the $200,000 as surplus funds not needed for retirement or is that too risky?

Sounds like you've just self-funded your own long-term care insurance. Or else you'll make some beneficiary very happy. Dory's had his eye on a new server...

You COULD go out and spend the $200K on a woo-hoo time, but it's a little hard to guarantee anything more than 20-30 years... including FIRECalc. Take a look at the five-part "Retirement Calculator From Hell" on Bernstein's website:
http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/998/hell.htm
http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/101/hell101.htm
http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/901/hell3.htm
http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/103/hell4.htm
http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/403/hell5.htm .

I believe part 3 addresses the futility of long-range planning from retirement calculators.

 

[oldcrowcall]

Nords, thanks for that reply. Very informative links!!