What I've found is that he gets out "on the circuit" and lays the old groundwork, but updates it with current news items. Makes it interesting for the audience he is addressing.
https://www.google.com/#q=bogle&safe=off&tbm=nws
That should show news items that you can get to. New mixed with old, but he is always an interesting read, or listen.
I watched it, but I was at work so I kept getting interrupted.
My notes are too scrambled to begin to summarize the Webinar. Jack gave Bogleheads a great complement and Mel got a nice tribute in.
My fav~
Q: Why are hedge funds so popular?
Bogle answer: "Because people are fools."
I'm going out on a limb here, because I don't remember Jack Bogle's exact words, but I believe he said to expect lower returns on stocks over the next 10 year period ... perhaps 4 to 5%. Can anyone else conform if the remember him saying that?
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I recall him saying the rate of return while he was investing and suggesting that people should expect it to be lower in the future, but I don't recall the specifics.
My notes from the webinar indicate that a 50/50 balanced fund over the next 10 years will generate a return of 4-5% annually. Was that what you were recalling?
I have just finished interview, and it sounded a whole lot worse than that. I am not a financial expert, but what I got from the interview is
10 year return of
4% for equity
3% on bonds (He said you need the exposure to corporate bonds, but 3% seems a bit high even for that, but anyway..)
=3.5% on a 50/50 balanced portfolio
3.5%-2%(inflation)-1%(expense ratio and portfolio transaction costs, etc)=0.5%
You also need to add some kind of sale charge fee of around 0.5%, so
0.5%-0.5% is 0%
Then he talked about deducting for taxes and investor behavior (we tend to sell at the wrong time) and deducted another 0.5% so at the end, it was a negative number
Jack said pension managers are using 7.5% return for their pension plans and he is sure that we cannot achieve that, but I just have to hope it is higher than Jack's prediction...
Has Jack been bang on so far in the past?? It is about 75 degrees here and I am getting the chills!
My notes from the webinar indicate that a 50/50 balanced fund over the next 10 years will generate a return of 4-5% annually. Was that what you were recalling?
3% on bonds (He said you need the exposure to corporate bonds, but 3% seems a bit high even for that, but anyway..)
Thanks for the link- he actually said that 4% is a nominal return- add in the fund costs+inflation and you're probably at 1.5% with a 50/50 portfolio.
Real Estate around here in California is pretty expensive nowadays so finding cashflow positive properties is difficult. So what's a small-time investor to do who still wants to retire in the next 8-10 yrs with a little over $1M - and if the 4% SWR is still considered safe if we do have a lul in the market for 10yr.
You are right - I just checked VCIT (which I have) and it is 3.20% yield at the moment.He was talking about corporate intermediate bonds, their SEC yield right now is 3%. https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=3146&FundIntExt=INT
Bonds are very straightforward in general. Current yield == future return.
Personally I wouldn't be surprised if Bogle was spoton for the nominal returns. Inflation however might be stuck at below 2%, so in real terms it ain't all bad then