Surewhitey
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
I was just thinking this yesterday...may slow the size of rate reduction.Oil prices have risen again, which could lead to higher inflation next month.
I was just thinking this yesterday...may slow the size of rate reduction.Oil prices have risen again, which could lead to higher inflation next month.
An excellent pointOne thing to keep in mind, as inflation cools and the interest rate stays the same, that means the real rate of interest is rising. This 50 basis points cut in the nominal rate only offsets some of that decline.
Indeed. IMHO, the very low mortgage rates are responsible for speculation in the housing market that has resulted in high home prices. I know people who bought one or two condos or a vacation property to rent out via AirBnB. Would the numbers work out at 5 or 6% interest? I suspect not.The almost zero percent interest rates of the last decade were not normal and not good for the country.
Meaning the next Social Security COLA will be 2.5%. The I-Bond inflation component beginning November 1st will be 1.90%CPI release for September https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
0.2 for the month, 2.4 for last 12 months.View attachment 52631
Meaning the next Social Security COLA will be 2.5%. The I-Bond inflation component beginning November 1st will be 1.90%
Thanks as always.Meaning the next Social Security COLA will be 2.5%. The I-Bond inflation component beginning November 1st will be 1.90%
And for a different view, here is the CPI-W that the 2.5% SS COLA is based on:CPI release for September https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
0.2 for the month, 2.4 for last 12 months.View attachment 52631
Just so there's no confusion, the social security COLA = arithmetic mean CPI-W 3Q2024/arithmetic mean CPI-W 3Q2023. That's why it is 2.5% rather than 2.6%And for a different view, here is the CPI-W that the 2.5% SS COLA is based on:
View attachment 52633
Thanks, I was wondering about that.Just so there's no confusion, the social security COLA = arithmetic mean CPI-W 3Q2024/arithmetic mean CPI-W 3Q2023. That's why it is 2.5% rather than 2.6%
Is that what spooked the equity markets this morning?September PCE was released this morning. This is the Fed’s preferred gauge if inflation. Month over month came in at 0.2% and core PCE 2.7%. Personal incomes grew 0.3% while spending rose 0.5%, both nominal. See the news release here
The quarterly employment cost index was also released today, another important Fed measure. Both compensation and total employment cost rose 0.8% for the quarter, and compensation cost rose 3.9% for the past 12 months. Release here
Both numbers are still a bit higher than what would be consistent with a 2% inflation, but the are in line with a 2%-3% inflation range.
October is often a negative month and it looks like the markets are really trying to erase the mid-month gains, ha ha.I think some of the earnings reports disappointed. MSFT was down 5.5% because it gave tepid guidance.
There were one or two other disappointments.
It’s Halloween, so it could be anything.Is that what spooked the equity markets this morning?