Latest Inflation Numbers and Discussion

Yes. The core reading also lower than expected. This is good news for the Fed's preferred measure.

To me the best news was housing inflation cooling. Long expected. Critically needed. Finally happening.
 
Market likes so far, DOW was up over 800.
 
Market likes so far, DOW was up over 800.
yes good bounce back. Well the Fed's dots are never what ends up happening. Fed news is important and often moves the market, but the market also seems to give it too much weight, in my view.
 
yes good bounce back. Well the Fed's dots are never what ends up happening. Fed news is important and often moves the market, but the market also seems to give it too much weight, in my view.
Well that didn't last. Markets are taking a beating today. Down 1% to 2% at this time. Was hoping the Santa rally would continue but it seems that the market is going to wipe it out by new years.
 
Saw someone on CNBC said that people are sitting on a lot of profits and that an "ocean" of capital will be rebalancing in January.

January is often an indicator of how the rest of the year will fare.

But markets were at all time highs earlier this month.
 
Well that didn't last. Markets are taking a beating today. Down 1% to 2% at this time. Was hoping the Santa rally would continue but it seems that the market is going to wipe it out by new years.
The Santa Claus rally comprises the last 5 trading days of the current year and the first 2 trading days of the following year so the window does not close until January 3rd. NOt every day is expected to be up during those 7 days so the game is not over yet.
 
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December CPI must have come in weak like the PPI did as the market is partying this morning.

Well no, it’s quite hot, monthly 0.4, annual 2.9%, but both the bond and equity markets are partying anyway.

Report PDF https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
It sounds like everyone loves increasing inflation and all the benefits that go along with rising prices! I guess if Market gains are enough, inflation doesn't matter, especially to those who have money in the markets - the other people, well, that can just deal with it!.
 
It sounds like everyone loves increasing inflation and all the benefits that go along with rising prices! I guess if Market gains are enough, inflation doesn't matter (to those who have money in the markets).
I added to my above post. The markets were expecting even higher inflation.
 
I added to my above post. The markets were expecting even higher inflation.
Less than a higher expectation is a good thing! :cool: But I guess the Market movers like rising inflation.

My car insurance went up about 20% this year and I guess I should be happy then? I thought it would go up more than that!
 
Less than a higher expectation is a good thing! :cool: But I guess the Market movers like rising inflation.

My car insurance went up about 20% this year and I guess I should be happy then? I thought it would go up more than that!
Sometimes enough people decide that the market selling has been overdone that we get a very temporary bounce.
 
I think one thing people forget is that all wealth is relative. There is no absolute dollar amount of wealth I need, I just need to have more than most of the the people who are competing with me for the same goods and services. So I don't really care what absolute prices are, as long as my assets/income go up by the same percentage or more, so that I can maintain my place in the hierarchy of wealth.
 
The trailing 12 months for all CPI was 2.9%, which isn’t bad, and the month of December saw core CPI at 0.2%, which is very good. We shouldn’t read too much into one report but it’s still pretty decent, and still on a favorable trend.

Sometimes the absence of bad news is just as good as good news. The jobs report last week led some to believe inflation would start trending back up.
 
The glide path to 2% inflation is going to be bumpy especially if our elected Federal representatives can’t bring down this massive deficit spending. So far I see no sign that they are taking the deficit seriously.

Listening to one local politician explain the 0.4% December increase and three straight months of increasing annual inflation rates it seems that they think the problem is the fault of somebody else. Same old, same old.

Here’s some “good” news?

Looking for a bright spot? The costs of alcoholic beverages fell 0.3% for the month and rose just 1.4% for the year.
 
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The trailing 12 months for all CPI was 2.9%, which isn’t bad, and the month of December saw core CPI at 0.2%, which is very good. We shouldn’t read too much into one report but it’s still pretty decent, and still on a favorable trend.

Sometimes the absence of bad news is just as good as good news. The jobs report last week led some to believe inflation would start trending back up.
Well it looks like inflation is trending back up to me as last month the 12 month inflation was 2.7%. 12 month inflation has been trending up since the last September low of 2.4%.
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December CPI must have come in weak like the PPI did as the market is partying this morning.

Well no, it’s quite hot, monthly 0.4 annual up to 2.9%, but the equities are partying anyway.

Report PDF https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
Well the Headline CPI was as expected, but the Core CPI was cool for December at 0.2% and 3.2% for the year. Both below expectations and and the 0.2% monthly figure was down from Nov.

So maybe this is becoming Goldilocks?
 
Both CPI-U and CPI-W unadjusted were ZERO in December. IRMAA calculations for 2026 and 2027 are flattening out due to flatline of CPI-U.
 
Well it looks like inflation is trending back up to me as last month the 12 month inflation was 2.7%. 12 month inflation has been trending up since the last September low of 2.4%.View attachment 53900
Obviously the core rate is telling a different story which is why we have a core rate.

Also importantly, the shelter component is declining now which has been a sticking point.
 
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