Let's talk Self Driving Cars again!

[tulak]

Oh yeah, it’s fun and interesting to watch these problems.

 

[zinger1457]

Just picked up a 2024 Hyundai Santa Fe and got to test out some of their driver assist features on a road trip this week. My expectations were fairly low, wasn't the main reason for buying it, but have to say it worked better than I was expecting. It is just an assist feature, nothing like Waymo, but found the steering control to be flawless as long as the road has good lane markings, you also have to control steering during very sharp turns. The Highway Driving Assist only works on main highways, tested it out on I10 in eastern AZ, no problem changing lanes using the turn signal. Lane Driving Assist works similar to HDA but works on all road types, as long as the road has decent lane lines, it doesn't change lanes when using the turn signal. My return trip was ~250 miles and used HDA or LDA on most of it to get the hang of it. In all cases you do have to rest your hand on the steering wheel or after a few minutes will get a message and it will eventually turn the system off. A heads up display is a must for using the driver assist IMO, I wouldn't want to have to look at the dash display to get system status. I was in the camp that said if you have to keep your hand on the wheel you might as well steer but I would guess the system keeps the car centered in the lane better than 90% of the drivers out there. There are limitations but could be a very useful assist feature, time will tell.

 

[calmloki]

Seems that Waymo taxis also drive with their horns, which people in the area surrounding their holding corral find a bit disturbing..

 

[Koolau]

Seems that Waymo taxis also drive with their horns, which people in the area surrounding their holding corral find a bit disturbing..

That's actually sorta funny - though not to local residents. The Waymo taxis are becoming more "human" than we might have expected.

 

[Midpack]

Seems that Waymo taxis also drive with their horns, which people in the area surrounding their holding corral find a bit disturbing..

Again, already corrected.

 

[explanade]

Waymo uses LIDAR as well as cameras.

Uber only uses cameras. I think they even removed the relatively cheap ultrasonic sensors for parking to avoid hitting near objects.

 

[tulak]

Uber doesn’t have a self driving car. I assume you meant Tesla?

 

[SecondAttempt]

I'm happy to accept self driving cars as soon as Mr. Musk agrees to serve time for negligent homicide every time one of his FSD cars kills someone!

 

[SecondAttempt]

Perhaps the sensor technology is the real issue. Nothing can compare with the mechanics of the human eye, hooked to a lifetime of experience in the human brain.

And the human's knowledge they are responsible for damages or jail time!

 

[Midpack]

I'm happy to accept self driving cars as soon as Mr. Musk agrees to serve time for negligent homicide every time one of his FSD cars kills someone!

Not to discount your concern, I wonder how fatality rates due to

• misuse of Tesla FSD/autopilot

compare to vehicle fatality rates due to

• misuse of alcohol and/or drugs,
• misuse of smartphones/other mobile devices,
• misuse due to other driver distractions (e.g. anything else that takes eyes off the road or causes a driver to lose focus),
• misuse due to speeding,
• misuse due to over reliance on ADAS in non-Teslas (e.g. cruise control),
• other driver misuse.

I do know the NHTSA claim of “94% of of car crashes are caused by "human error” claim has been forcefully called into question.

I remain hopeful self driving technology (or a subset) will substantially reduce traffic accidents and fatalities.

 

[Texas Proud]

I'm happy to accept self driving cars as soon as Mr. Musk agrees to serve time for negligent homicide every time one of his FSD cars kills someone!

Why?

Nobody from Boeing went to jail for killing almost 400 people on two plane crashes...

IIRC nobody went to jail on the Pinto fires.... (which might have been debunked as a serious problem... I just do not know)...

And what about all the other deaths due to a company not doing what they say they will do... or the product is more dangerous than expected...

It is a monetary penalty... not a jail penalty..

 

[ERD50]

I'm happy to accept self driving cars as soon as Mr. Musk agrees to serve time for negligent homicide every time one of his FSD cars kills someone!

Perfect is the enemy of good.

While I'm plenty skeptical of the general availability of FSD that works anywhere/anytime, I'm far less skeptical that a robo-taxi like Waymo can be safer than humans on average under controlled areas and conditions.

If/when they are significantly safer, not using them because they are not perfect would a missed opportunity to save $$$, injury and loss of life. That would be wrong.

Though I do think Musk at least deserves the public humiliation of a cream pie in the face for holding onto his outlandish claims/schedules/promises for so long!

 

[Koolau]

I'm happy to accept self driving cars as soon as Mr. Musk agrees to serve time for negligent homicide every time one of his FSD cars kills someone!

The safety potential (to me) far exceeds the "comfort" or "convenience" factor of self driving. So far, I don't think we're there. But I have hope for the technology.

One of the issues I see is that folks are expecting perfection from the new technology while we accept that drivers manage to get into all kinds of accidents every day all by themselves.

I honestly think it will eventually come down to something like a double blind pharmaceutical study. IOW do 10000 "self driving" cars get into more or less accidents than 10000 non-self driving cars. Condemning self driving cars because one person is injured is too high a standard to place on the new technology. And throwing an executive into prison because a car fails would mean we have no executives left on the street.

 

[Chuckanut]

I seem to recall that some Cadillacs have sophisticated near very advanced near FSD systems. IIRC, getting the first 80% of self driving right is the easy part. It’s that last 20% that is a huge problem. With all the road construction in my area, I really do wonder how a so-called FSD car would handle that.

OTOH, a lot of human drivers can’t even do a proper zipper merge in construction areas, thus creating ongoing congestion, and various other hazardous conditions.

 

[Midpack]

I seem to recall that some Cadillacs have sophisticated near very advanced near FSD systems. IIRC, getting the first 80% of self driving right is the easy part. It’s that last 20% that is a huge problem. With all the road construction in my area, I really do wonder how a so-called FSD car would handle that.

OTOH, a lot of human drivers can’t even do a proper zipper merge in construction areas, thus creating ongoing congestion, and various other hazardous conditions.

Not even close to FSD on Cadillacs or any GM vehicle yet, they have adaptive cruise control, lane centering and lane change on highways only - that's it. Maybe you’re thinking of GM’s Cruise robotaxi fleet, currently regrouping.

Not sure what the percentages are but IME Tesla FSD is about 95% there, but the last 5% is as you say a "huge problem." There are some situations that are so unusual, it's pretty hard for software to interpret. Waymo is probably even closer than 95% there, but they are relying on remote operators to get through the other 5%. I wouldn't call that self driving, but remote operators may be necessary for a while. Tesla does not have remote operators, FSD just hesitates or stops, and the driver has to take over. Tesla is moving to neural nets-AI-LLM to teach their fleet how to handle the 5%, and Waymo has also begun down that path.

 

[Midpack]

A confession?

I owned a Prius from 2012-16. I noticed some people resented Prius owners. But in all honesty, there was a vocal holier than thou minority of owners, so I understood why.

I've been following Tesla since 2012, and finally bought one last year. I absolutely love the car so far. I have noticed some people resent Tesla owners, or EV owners in general. To be perfectly honest, the vocal holier than thou minority of Tesla owners are even more obnoxious than Prius owners were (their numbers have shrunk). I spend time on Tesla forums to learn, but that vocal minority is so biased and insufferably full of themselves it's no wonder some non EV folks are turned off...

 

[joesxm3]

In 2023 (older FSD) Tesla FSD had 7x the miles between accidents than the national average. Tesla without FSD had 3x, so discounting for a higher quality driver owning Tesla that still is 2x safer than manual Tesla.

I had FSD in 2023 when it was "pretty good" but did some stupid or scary things. I have it again now (12.3.6 hw3) and use it 99% of the time. Very rare that I have to intervene or get nervous.

Ignoring robot taxi, supervised FSD is quite a bit better than driving myself and probably a lot safer.

People who have never used FSD or have not used it long enough to trust it are not a reliable indicator of the current capability. I drove 4000 miles mostly FSD last year and almost 3000 this time around. Last year is I would use it for longer trips only. Today I use it as long as the trip is not to short to type the destination into the navigation system.

 

[audreyh1]

A confession?

I owned a Prius from 2012-16. I noticed some people resented Prius owners. But in all honesty, there was a vocal holier than thou minority of owners, so I understood why.

I've been following Tesla since 2012, and finally bought one last year. I absolutely love the car so far. I have noticed some people resent Tesla owners, or EV owners in general. To be perfectly honest, the vocal holier than thou minority of Tesla owners are even more obnoxious than Prius owners were (their numbers have shrunk). I spend time on Tesla forums to learn, but that vocal minority is so biased and insufferably full of themselves it's no wonder some non EV folks are turned off...

Fortunately I haven’t run into the vocal holier than though group although I only follow certain topics on the Tesla Motors Club forum. What I have run into is extreme geekiness and endless off topic speculation on the AI FSD thread which can make reading it quite tedious even after ignoring the worst culprits.

 

[audreyh1]

In 2023 (older FSD) Tesla FSD had 7x the miles between accidents than the national average. Tesla without FSD had 3x, so discounting for a higher quality driver owning Tesla that still is 2x safer than manual Tesla.

I had FSD in 2023 when it was "pretty good" but did some stupid or scary things. I have it again now (12.3.6 hw3) and use it 99% of the time. Very rare that I have to intervene or get nervous.

Ignoring robot taxi, supervised FSD is quite a bit better than driving myself and probably a lot safer.

People who have never used FSD or have not used it long enough to trust it are not a reliable indicator of the current capability. I drove 4000 miles mostly FSD last year and almost 3000 this time around. Last year is I would use it for longer trips only. Today I use it as long as the trip is not to short to type the destination into the navigation system.

FSD is good enough now for me to pay the $99 a month subscription. Even though we don’t drive much when home it makes running errands so much less tedious, I don’t even mind going through multiple stop lights anymore as the car handles them so well. The main errors requiring intervention are due to bad map data such as incorrect turn lanes. Hope they keep fixing those maps!

3000+ mile road trip this last April FSD was a godsend!

 

[Midpack]

I had FSD V11 for three months, I was impressed but it wasn't perfect. I had FSD V12, an early version, for one month (like all owners) and it was noticeably better - I had quite a few local trips with no interventions. It missed an exit off a highway once (?) because it waited too long to change lanes but it would have gotten me home. The only other hesitations were at tricky intersections when other cars drivers were acting erratic or indecisive, but FSD never did anything reckless or dangerous, it just hesitated too much so I took over to avoid irritating other drivers nearby. I agree IME Tesla NAV didn't always take the best route, but it would have gotten me to our destination I am sure.

 

[Koolau]

I may be naive but I haven't noticed any "holier than thou" behavior on either side of the EV/FSD equation. I appreciate the technology of EVs, recognize most of their advantages and understand that they have some limitations or compromises. I don't see anything that would suggest anyone should be taking a major stance on ownership (or non-ownership) of EVs. Do what you want with your money and enjoy the ride is my attitude. YMMV

 

[indiajust]

I would like to see waymo in a small town, where nothing changes. Replace the school bus, the government ride, and help the elderly. Never leaves the town. And since the town never changes (or very slowly) it will be easier to memorize. Far less complexity to manage.

 

[explanade]

I would like to see waymo in a small town, where nothing changes. Replace the school bus, the government ride, and help the elderly. Never leaves the town. And since the town never changes (or very slowly) it will be easier to memorize. Far less complexity to manage.

They still have to account for traffic and things like lanes being closed for construction or some other temporary changes to the roads you may travel on.

I've heard there is already data showing that some of these systems have way less accidents per million miles or whatever the metric is than human drivers.

I've never ridden Waymo but my guess is they're very conservatively designed, so not going over the speed limit and not making aggressive lane changes or turns like human drivers do.

 

[Texas Proud]

Most studies I have seen show self driving is safer... but even with that I think everybody would like to see them improve... the goal would be no accidents at all... not achievable, but should be the goal...

🚘 Self-driving cars are safer than human drivers, study shows

The study finds that human drivers are more likely to crash, cause crashes and injure others than autonomous vehicles. Self-driving cars can reduce traffic fatalities and improve urban mobility.

www.warpnews.org

 

[tulak]

Most studies I have seen show self driving is safer... but even with that I think everybody would like to see them improve... the goal would be no accidents at all... not achievable, but should be the goal...

Probably not in my lifetime, but I can see where you can get close to zero accidents, if not zero.

Right now we are building cars to adapt to our infrastructure. Once self driving cars reach a critical mass, I would be surprised if we don’t build infrastructure around self-driving cars. At some point, you’ll have dedicated roads or sections of cities where only self-driving cars are allowed. When that happens, efficiency and safety will be much higher.

I always like to think about the amount of reclaimed land too. Much like privately owned cars have low utilization, the same is true for roads.