Let's talk Self Driving Cars again!

[Koolau]

Probably not in my lifetime, but I can see where you can get close to zero accidents, if not zero.

Right now we are building cars to adapt to our infrastructure. Once self driving cars reach a critical mass, I would be surprised if we don’t build infrastructure around self-driving cars. At some point, you’ll have dedicated roads or sections of cities where only self-driving cars are allowed. When that happens, efficiency and safety will be much higher.

I always like to think about the amount of reclaimed land too. Much like privately owned cars have low utilization, the same is true for roads.

Yes, in a situation where self driving cars are separated from general traffic, it should be relatively simple to insure (virtually) zero accidents. I agree - not in our life times, but some day.

Self driving technology can only get better. I can imagine a time when every car (not just self drivers) have the equivalent of a transponder which helps to space cars and avoid accidents.

I also agree that the last 5% (or so) of improvements will be the most difficult to achieve.

 

[audreyh1]

Probably not in my lifetime, but I can see where you can get close to zero accidents, if not zero.

Right now we are building cars to adapt to our infrastructure. Once self driving cars reach a critical mass, I would be surprised if we don’t build infrastructure around self-driving cars. At some point, you’ll have dedicated roads or sections of cities where only self-driving cars are allowed. When that happens, efficiency and safety will be much higher.

I always like to think about the amount of reclaimed land too. Much like privately owned cars have low utilization, the same is true for roads.

Unfortunately many accidents involve another driver violating rules of the road. They may make it impossible to avoid a collision or an avoidance that is just as dangerous.

 

[The Cosmic Avenger]

Unfortunately many accidents involve another driver violating rules of the road. They may make it impossible to avoid a collision or an avoidance that is just as dangerous.

And it's mostly that last part that has people concerned about self-driving cars. We don't like admitting that we may theoretically have to choose, say, to hit a baby in a stroller or an elderly person; if a self-driving car had no way to avoid hitting one or the other, it makes many people uncomfortable that we may tell it to choose on any criteria, even though not choosing in this mental exercise would definitely mean hitting one or the other.

 

[Koolau]

Unfortunately many accidents involve another driver violating rules of the road. They may make it impossible to avoid a collision or an avoidance that is just as dangerous.

At least for a while, I can see "road rage" increasing as more and more self-drivers obey all the rules and self-space from other vehicles. This will likely force the "hot-dogs" to slow down as well which they will not appreciate.

I can't tell you the number of big ol' pick-em-ups that blast around me when I let off the gas because the light ahead has just turned from green to red. I often wonder what people are thinking when they do that. Do they really think they get some place faster if they are one car further "ahead" at each red light? Well, that's for another thread. Returning you now...

 

[Midpack]

And it's mostly that last part that has people concerned about self-driving cars. We don't like admitting that we may theoretically have to choose, say, to hit a baby in a stroller or an elderly person; if a self-driving car had no way to avoid hitting one or the other, it makes many people uncomfortable that we may tell it to choose on any criteria, even though not choosing in this mental exercise would definitely mean hitting one or the other.

A horrible scenario, but how is that any different than a car driven by a human faced with the same dilemma? So self-driving cars don't change anything.

 

[The Cosmic Avenger]

A horrible scenario, but how is that any different than a car driven by a human faced with the same dilemma? So self-driving cars don't change anything.

I know that, and you know that, but my point was that many people are for some reason disquieted by programming a computer to make that decision.

 

[audreyh1]

I know that, and you know that, but my point was that many people are for some reason disquieted by programming a computer to make that decision.

Except with AI they aren’t programming that specific scenario.

 

[Midpack]

I know that, and you know that, but my point was that many people are for some reason disquieted by programming a computer to make that decision.

I am sure that's true. But in the end that moral choice, the well known "Trolley Problem," will pale in comparison to the total reduction in accidents/deaths. Some have suggested AVs will reduce accidents/fatalities by 90% but we don't know that number. At some point, the collective "we" will have to accept significantly fewer traffic accidents/deaths is preferable to the status quo. Insurance premiums for humans could become very expensive.

And of those inclined to ask what if AVs don't reduce accidents/deaths? They won't be implemented until they are clearly better than the status quo. Unfortunately we have to pass through an interim where human drivers and AVs share the road and accidents are not reduced as dramatically. If we get through that and AVs dominate the roads, accidents will be further reduced as human error is a partial or root cause in most accidents.

Whether this happens in our lifetimes, also unknown.

 

[Texas Proud]

And it's mostly that last part that has people concerned about self-driving cars. We don't like admitting that we may theoretically have to choose, say, to hit a baby in a stroller or an elderly person; if a self-driving car had no way to avoid hitting one or the other, it makes many people uncomfortable that we may tell it to choose on any criteria, even though not choosing in this mental exercise would definitely mean hitting one or the other.

Just to be contrarian... from the accidents that I have had in my life there was no decision to be made...

By the time I saw that something was going to happen... it did... now, I have avoided accidents by changing lanes, braking or something else but most of the time I do not see if there is a baby stroller or elderly person...

The one thing that will not be fixed to get to zero accidents is failure of something... there are a lot of accidents where a tire blew, there was black ice... water and oil with no traction... usually the 'thing' happens and then you just hope nothing is in the way...

 

[Koolau]

Just to be contrarian... from the accidents that I have had in my life there was no decision to be made...

That's an interesting observation.

I did have an accident where I had a choice. A young woman pulled out in front of me onto a highway. I locked up my brakes (before ABS) and had just enough time and control to decide whether to hit her car in the passenger door (behind which sat what turned out to be her mother) or to go for her front wheel well.

I managed to hit her front wheel well. That turned out well for "mom" in the front seat, but not so well for my car. Hitting the young woman's car in the front caused the rear of her car to swing around and hit my car in the driver's side rear door. So I had front end and side damage. No injuries thank God.

I think I made the right decision.

It took me 2 months to track down her insurance agent who said (I almost said with a "straight face" but this was on the phone) "I was JUST going to call you." But that's another story.

I don't know if a self driver would ever be capable of making that decision. I think maybe so but YMMV.

 

[Midpack]

Just to be contrarian... from the accidents that I have had in my life there was no decision to be made...

By the time I saw that something was going to happen... it did... now, I have avoided accidents by changing lanes, braking or something else but most of the time I do not see if there is a baby stroller or elderly person...

The one thing that will not be fixed to get to zero accidents is failure of something... there are a lot of accidents where a tire blew, there was black ice... water and oil with no traction... usually the 'thing' happens and then you just hope nothing is in the way...

As you know NHTSA, IIHS and others publish detailed accident statistics all the time. And no one is claiming AVs will reach zero accidents, but they will substantially reduce or eliminate accidents caused by human error - driving under the influence, distracted driving, fatigue, inexperienced drivers, poor decision making…

 

[tulak]

This may have already been discussed here, but I was reading an article on Apple News about Cruise, who is slowly looking to get back into robotaxis after they were suspended in San Francisco last year because:

Thursday’s announcement arrived nearly a year after California regulators indefinitely suspended Cruise’s driverless operations following the Oct. 2, 2023, incident, when a human hit-and-run driver struck a jaywalking pedestrian, propelling her into the path of one of Cruise's robotaxis, which then attempted to pull over with the victim trapped underneath.

I’m sure most of us would have just stopped, but wow, that’s an unfortunate sequence of events.

 

[Koolau]

Thursday’s announcement arrived nearly a year after California regulators indefinitely suspended Cruise’s driverless operations following the Oct. 2, 2023, incident, when a human hit-and-run driver struck a jaywalking pedestrian, propelling her into the path of one of Cruise's robotaxis, which then attempted to pull over with the victim trapped underneath.

This has been my issue with evaluating self-driving cars. Self driving cars seem to be held to a "higher standard" than those driven by humans. For every story of a self-driven car inappropriately reacting to an accident, there are dozens where humans make "stupid" mistakes. There was a local one recently where an older lady dropped off her friend who got her coat caught in the door. The driver took off and drove for a mile without realizing she was dragging her friend.

 

[Texas Proud]

This has been my issue with evaluating self-driving cars. Self driving cars seem to be held to a "higher standard" than those driven by humans. For every story of a self-driven car inappropriately reacting to an accident, there are dozens where humans make "stupid" mistakes. There was a local one recently where an older lady dropped off her friend who got her coat caught in the door. The driver took off and drove for a mile without realizing she was dragging her friend.

Hmmm, interesting.... I wonder if the self driving car would know if it was dragging someone?

Who wants to volunteer?!

 

[Koolau]

Hmmm, interesting.... I wonder if the self driving car would know if it was dragging someone?

Who wants to volunteer?!

Now that the issue is "known" there is likely a fix (camera under the car??)

Realistically, would a human actually know exactly what to do every time in such a situation? Probably not since they might not actually know what had happened in all the excitement.

 

[Texas Proud]

Now that the issue is "known" there is likely a fix (camera under the car??)

Realistically, would a human actually know exactly what to do every time in such a situation? Probably not since they might not actually know what had happened in all the excitement.

I would think that most humans would not have this problem... even if they started to drive the screaming should alert them...

But then again we keep hearing about stupid parents who 'forget' their kids in the car...

HMMM, that is something someone can program in... if the car detects a kid in an EV it can turn on the AC... the avg is 37 deaths a year...

 

[Koolau]

I would think that most humans would not have this problem... even if they started to drive the screaming should alert them...

But then again we keep hearing about stupid parents who 'forget' their kids in the car...

HMMM, that is something someone can program in... if the car detects a kid in an EV it can turn on the AC... the avg is 37 deaths a year...

Good point about kids in the car. It should be a relatively easy thing to detect kids in the car - even if it's not a self-driving car. I believe there is proposed legislation to this end under consideration already.

 

[The Cosmic Avenger]

Good point about kids in the car. It should be a relatively easy thing to detect kids in the car - even if it's not a self-driving car. I believe there is proposed legislation to this end under consideration already.

It's voluntary, but it will include most 4-door vehicles: https://www.consumerreports.org/car...at-reminder-systems-in-most-new-cars-by-2025/

 

[Koolau]

It's voluntary, but it will include most 4-door vehicles: https://www.consumerreports.org/car...at-reminder-systems-in-most-new-cars-by-2025/

Thank for the citation.

I once thought it was unlikely to "forget" your children. But DW and I got home from our only-ever 6-day "escape" vacation together while we had the kids. We'd farmed them out to scout camp or friends, etc.

The day we got back, we were sitting at the table thinking "something is missing." About that time, we got a phone call. Our youngest wondered when we were going to pick her up from our friends' house. (We had arranged to pick her up at 6PM and it was 6:15PM.) "Uh, we're on our way, sweetie pie."

Some sort of kid-minder in the car would be a very good thing I think.

 

[The Cosmic Avenger]

Gene Weingarten wrote a Pulitzer Prize-winning essay, "Fatal Distraction: Forgetting a Child in the Backseat of a Car Is a Horrifying Mistake. Is It a Crime?" Unfortunately, it's behind a paywall, but it's heartrending and the people he interviews are not stupid people, all of whom thought it could never happen to them before it actually did. If you can get access to it, I highly recommend reading it.

 

[audreyh1]

I would think that most humans would not have this problem... even if they started to drive the screaming should alert them...

But then again we keep hearing about stupid parents who 'forget' their kids in the car...

HMMM, that is something someone can program in... if the car detects a kid in an EV it can turn on the AC... the avg is 37 deaths a year...

Tesla has a “dog mode” that keeps the car cool - obviously would work for any passenger left in the car.

 

[aja8888]

My car has a back seat reminder if I put something in the back seat before driving away. When I stop and put the car in park, a chime and message flashes on the screen telling me to check the back seat.

 

[Texas Proud]

Just to point it out... just a reminder might not be enough...

I saw where two people where charged with some level of homicide when the lady went over to her BF for a quick hookup... she left her kid in the back seat... it was hot and they took longer than she thought....

 

[Koolau]

Just to point it out... just a reminder might not be enough...

I saw where two people where charged with some level of homicide when the lady went over to her BF for a quick hookup... she left her kid in the back seat... it was hot and they took longer than she thought....

Yeah, that's a different story than forgetting a kid when you go shopping. That's tragic and perhaps inexcusable, but a hook-up that lasts too long is criminal and unforgivable.

 

[Midpack]

Yeah, that's a different story than forgetting a kid when you go shopping. That's tragic and perhaps inexcusable, but a hook-up that lasts too long is criminal and unforgivable.

No difference in my mind, both “tragic, inexcusable, unforgivable” and “criminal” in at least 21 states. Fortunately it’s very uncommon as noted above, an average of 37 deaths per year, 29 in 2023.