Long Term Economic Fallout From War In Ukraine

[Gumby]

It's like much of life - if you put in the work to figure it out for yourself, you will know exactly what the question is and exactly what went into the calculation/valuation, you will know the limits on what sources were consulted, you will know the strengths and weaknesses of the answer, you will understand what is and isn't known and what may be unknowable. You will see exactly how your own life, with its unique characteristics, will be affected.

Or you could just ask AI and blindly accept the results. I prefer people who think for themselves.

 

[marko]

Weren't the failures in the Trinity study starting in the late 60s? Vietnam War era following by high inflation?

This highlights what concerns me about AI. You asked Grok about Dow performance, and the market itself probably recovered enough to satisfy the question. But with inflation you came out worse. You didn't really ask the right question, and you let Grok do the work so you didn't realize it. People will get more reliant on AI and more and more will accept the answers without realizing the question was bad, or maybe the AI was wrong. Trust but verify applies, IMO.

As noted, I left out a lot of details to avoid the forum police.

The Grok analysis went into deep detail, about 16 pages worth, and included how the market languished during the Viet Nam era due to high inflation and how during WWII, the markets varied greatly depending upon several factors, but with a net upward trend at the end.

My attempt at brevity apparently failed, but at least I didn't get the thread shut down due to overquoting the report. I'm sorry I bothered now. So much for my fun exercise. (Sniff!)

Details aside, my personal observation is, and I've stated here for years, that the market is resilient and does adapt to global conflicts with amazing efficiency,

 

[RunningBum]

As noted, I left out a lot of details to avoid the forum police.

The Grok analysis went into deep detail, about 16 pages worth, and included how the market languished during the Viet Nam era due to high inflation and how during WWII, the markets varied greatly depending upon several factors, but with a net upward trend at the end.

My attempt at brevity apparently failed, but at least I didn't get the thread shut down due to overquoting the report. I'm sorry I bothered now. So much for my fun exercise. (Sniff!)

Details aside, my personal observation is, and I've stated here for years, that the market is resilient and does adapt to global conflicts with amazing efficiency,

Sorry, but I'm going to pile on. People who did not have a sufficient buffer going into retirement in those late 60s years would not have had their portfolio last long enough to enjoy the recovery. Either Grok didn't point that out, or you misrepresented the answer.

 

[Gearhead Jim]

Sorry, but I'm going to pile on. People who did not have a sufficient buffer going into retirement in those late 60s years would not have had their portfolio last long enough to enjoy the recovery. ...

The tough part is calculating what is a "sufficient buffer". Hindsight is always 20-20, foresight not so much.

 

[marko]

Sorry, but I'm going to pile on. People who did not have a sufficient buffer going into retirement in those late 60s years would not have had their portfolio last long enough to enjoy the recovery. Either Grok didn't point that out, or you misrepresented the answer.

Having spent 35 years in high tech computing, I'm fully and painfully aware of its limitations. I was merely presenting a brief of what Grok said, not necessarily presenting it as ironclad fact.

See post #74. My question to Grok was "How did the Dow perform during WWI, WWII..." etc. It had nothing to do with portfolio or retirement survival.

I simply found that the report provided additional insights that my brief distillation apparently failed to convey.

I wasn't trying to make a point but was just reporting. Implying that I deliberately misrepresented is a bit unfair.

I apologize if some took the report as irrefutable facts but I would have expected the "according to Grok" notation to have been a caveat.

You've been here long enough to know that many of my 9400+ posts quite often miss the mark. This was obviously one to add to that collection. This is the ER forum, not Wikipedia.

Chill.