Looking for a Safe Nest Egg Withdrawal Calculator for Safe withdrawal amount. - Please Read Requirements

[ShokWaveRider]

I need help finding a withdrawal calculator that Tells Me how much we can safely withdraw from our Nest Egg in order as not to run out for say 25 years. I have looked and seem plenty that ask how much one needs then details how long it will last but none that tell me how much I can take based on my requirements below. Any help would be appreciated.

Requirements:

1) Based on a lump sum how much can we safely take from it to last 25 years?
2) Takes into account Social Security?
3) Takes into account Qualifies and NON qualified funds?

All other items are usually covered. There are the key ones I would like to see.

Thanks in Advance for your input.

 

[Sunset]

An unlikely possibility.

No calculator can know future tax rates, nor inflation, nor growth of funds, so errors are introduced immediately.

Best rough estimate would be in todays dollars: ( ( Lumpsum / 25) + SS + (1/25 Qualified) + (1/25 Non-Qualified)) - income taxes.

Then don't live past 25 years

 

[Exchme]

I had to look up Qualified vs. Non Qualified funds. As I understand it, a 401k is a Qualified fund whereas a salary deferral plan is Non Qualified.

In any event, it sounds like what you want is a calculator that, unlike FireCalc, makes calculations of your taxes, but still has historical or Monte Carlo modeling so you can understand sequence of returns risk.

In general, you need to understand that the more sophistication you ask for - like including lots of the wrinkles of the tax code and including features like historical and/or Monte Carlo modeling - the more the complexity of inputs and complexity of interpreting outputs go up.

There is a page devoted to various calculators including thoughtful reviews at the Can I Retire Yet blog:

Calculators Archives

I wanted as much power and flexibility as I could get, so chose Pralana Gold and have been using it for several years now. My understanding from reading various resources is that it's the most powerful of the consumer level tools (some advisors actually use it too). It's a paid program and currently requires Excel (in a couple months, they are supposed to release a web version, it's in beta testing now).

 

[USGrant1962]

I think that the Retiree Portfolio Model spreadsheet on Bogleheads can do what you are looking for. But it has a steep learning curve.

Retiree Portfolio Model - Bogleheads

www.bogleheads.org

 

[ShokWaveRider]

I was thinking of something like these, the Mutual of Omaha is the best, but I have to insert $16k a month instead of it tell me what to expect for the 25 - 30 years:

I'm retired, how long will my savings last?

www.calcxml.com

or these but with a recommended withdrawal for 25 - 30 years.

I'm retired, how long will my savings last?

www.calcxml.com

Retirement Calculator - How Long Will Your Savings Last?

Use this Retirement Calculator to figure out how long your retirement account may last given a monthly income target.

www.mutualofomaha.com

 

[Al18]

The Fidelity Retirement Planner meets all of your requirements. The inputs are simple and the output is detailed. While taxes are taken into account, RothIRA conversions and how much to take from qualified and non-qualified accounts is not defined.

 

[pb4uski]

I need help finding a withdrawal calculator that Tells Me how much we can safely withdraw from our Nest Egg in order as not to run out for say 25 years. I have looked and seem plenty that ask how much one needs then details how long it will last but none that tell me how much I can take based on my requirements below. Any help would be appreciated.

Requirements:

1) Based on a lump sum how much can we safely take from it to last 25 years?
2) Takes into account Social Security?
3) Takes into account Qualifies and NON qualified funds?

All other items are usually covered. There are the key ones I would like to see.

Thanks in Advance for your input.

FIRECalc. Put in your info, go to the Investigate Tab and select the bottom radio button...

You can set it for 25 years on the Start Here tab and enter SS on the Other Income/Spending tab. Include qualified and non-qualified funds in the Portfolio amount on the Start Here tab.

 

[Dtail]

I was thinking of something like these, the Mutual of Omaha is the best, but I have to insert $16k a month instead of it tell me what to expect for the 25 - 30 years:

I'm retired, how long will my savings last?

www.calcxml.com

or these but with a recommended withdrawal for 25 - 30 years.

I'm retired, how long will my savings last?

www.calcxml.com

Retirement Calculator - How Long Will Your Savings Last?

Use this Retirement Calculator to figure out how long your retirement account may last given a monthly income target.

www.mutualofomaha.com

The calculators depend on the inputted investment rate of return, which effectively then uses an average return sequence which is not how the actual markets work.
The average of returns for the 5 worst starting years for retirement ended up having close to average returns for the 30 year period, but effectively had bad results due to the lousy first 15 years of returns. (SORR)

 

[levindb]

This chart from Morningstar will provide a Safe Withdrawal Rate for various asset allocations and number of years...with 25 years as one of the columns. It targets 90% chance of not running out of money...

The Good News on Safe Withdrawal Rates

 

[Dtail]

This chart from Morningstar will provide a Safe Withdrawal Rate for various asset allocations and number of years...with 25 years as one of the columns. It targets 90% chance of not running out of money...

The Good News on Safe Withdrawal Rates

Morningstar is constantly changing their SWR and not by a little. Their SWR is now 4%, but was 3.3% just 2 years earlier; a 20% change in just 2 years.
Since almost no one actually uses the Bengen/Trinity 4% guidance as an actual withdrawal strategy, these large up and down movements I am not sold on.
Yes it does mention about being flexible. Well one can accomplish that in other ways too.

 

[HI Bill]

FIRECALC includes SS in its calculations. It does not take taxes into account. Given the enormous number of variables and unknowns over a 25-year period (inflation, returns on investments, changes in tax rates, emergency and/or unplanned spending that could decrease your nest egg prematurely), I think there's no calculator that can give you a precise answer. I'd just use FIRECALC and understand that your withdrawals have to cover taxes. Many here use FIRECALC annually to ensure that they're on track. I use that, and Boglehead's VPW calculator, but that one's aimed more at maximizing spending than creating a stable income for 25 years.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

All the ones I have seen including Fircalc expect YOU to enter an amount for monthly or annual withdrawal. The primary requirement I am looking for is one that "suggests" the withdrawal amount for one's situation.

EG. if one has say $2m in cash & IRA funds, how much can one withdraw for an estimated return of say 4% safely in a 25 year period?

 

[latexman]

All the ones I have seen including Fircalc expect YOU to enter an amount for monthly or annual withdrawal. The primary requirement I am looking for is one that "suggests" the withdrawal amount for one's situation.

Didn’t you read post # 7?

 

[MichaelB]

FIRECalc. Put in your info, go to the Investigate Tab and select the bottom radio button...
View attachment 51235
You can set it for 25 years on the Start Here tab and enter SS on the Other Income/Spending tab. Include qualified and non-qualified funds in the Portfolio amount on the Start Here tab.

This is a good approach

 

[ShokWaveRider]

Didn’t you read post # 7?

Yes, I looked it asks for a spending amount. I tried it. Or maybe it is not as easy to understand as I would expect. Unless I am missing something.

 

[Gumby]

Yes, I looked it asks for a spending amount. I tried it. Or maybe it is not as easy to understand as I would expect. Unless I am missing something.

Use the "investigate" tab on the far right. Check the box for spending level that will give you 95% success. It will tell you the spending level and show you a graph that shows the variation in success rate versus spending level. The amount you put in for the "start here" spending is irrelevant in that case.

 

[pb4uski]

Yes, I looked it asks for a spending amount. I tried it. Or maybe it is not as easy to understand as I would expect. Unless I am missing something.

You're missing something. It computes the spending amount that results in 95% success. Select the bottom radio button and the click on Submit.

 

[Gumby]

To elaborate: In the normal output, you tell FIRECalc the spending and it tells you the probability of success. When using the "investigate" tab, bottom button, you tell it the probability of success and it tells you the spending. When doing that calculation, it doesn't care what you put in the "start here" tab for spending; it ignores that.

Just remember that the spending level shown when using that investigate feature must also cover the taxes, so your actual "paying for goods and services" spending will be less. How much less depends on your particular state and federal tax rate.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

Thanks to all. I tried the FireCalc recommendations above. I do find it somewhat confusing. I am sure I am not entering all the correct inputs which is why I was looking for something a little simpler.

Here is an example after entering 30 years based on my inputs, What are the Cycles?:

 

[latexman]

What are the Cycles?:

A cycle is one 30-year retirement period. It looked at 96 30-year periods. Like 1993-2023, 1992-2022, 1991-2021, . . . , 1898-1928.

 

[pb4uski]

^^^ Right, and if you use FIRECalc to solve for success rate you'll get a similar message, but how many cycles passed and how many cycles failed.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

I would really like something simple like this one that includes SS. I know folks here love FireCalc, But.

Retirement Withdrawal Calculator

Use the retirement withdrawal calculator to find out how long your money will last or how much money you can withdraw in retirement.

www.omnicalculator.com

 

[target2019]

I need help finding a withdrawal calculator that Tells Me how much we can safely withdraw from our Nest Egg in order as not to run out for say 25 years. I have looked and seem plenty that ask how much one needs then details how long it will last but none that tell me how much I can take based on my requirements below. Any help would be appreciated.

Requirements:

1) Based on a lump sum how much can we safely take from it to last 25 years?
2) Takes into account Social Security?
3) Takes into account Qualifies and NON qualified funds?

All other items are usually covered. There are the key ones I would like to see.

Thanks in Advance for your input.

By now you know that more information is required. Each calculator you find will have additional fields to fill out. There is also a large error in using a phrase like "not to run out for say 25 years." Answering that requires some estimate of spending, inflation, average return, and so on. You also need to answer what it means to not run out. For example, is a $1 balance in the beginning of year 26 enough?

When I ask an AI an approximation of your question, I get a response as follows.

‎Gemini - direct access to Google AI

Created with Gemini

g.co

 

[bonvoyage]

The best retirement calculator that I have found is Pralana Gold. It's currently sold as an Excel spreadsheet but they are in the process of converting it to a web app. Pralana is especially valuable for households like us with significant money outside of tax deferred accounts and with complex Roth conversion considerations. It costs $110 per year but is worth every cent of it in my opinion

 

[target2019]

I would really like something simple like this one that includes SS. I know folks here love FireCalc, But.

Retirement Withdrawal Calculator

Use the retirement withdrawal calculator to find out how long your money will last or how much money you can withdraw in retirement.

www.omnicalculator.com

You can expand the results to show chart of balances and withdrawal schedule. Copy that to a spreadsheet and add a column for your social security. Add column(s) to calculate the new amount(s).