Just went in and did this with my info and found it really interesting, and somewhat confirming of my earlier "Lazy Sunday...." post. I have gone to numerous various Calculators, and with some minor differences gotten confirmation of my "inputs" (I say inputs because I know that drives some success bias", but that makes me feel pretty good.
Again this type of calculator uses an average rate of return, which is not how the markets work, which would thus ignore the SORR concept.I would really like something simple like this one that includes SS.I know folks here love FireCalc, But.
Retirement Withdrawal Calculator
Use the retirement withdrawal calculator to find out how long your money will last or how much money you can withdraw in retirement.www.omnicalculator.com
Effectively the Investigate tab mimics the 4% guidance concept. If you leave the default inputs on Firecalc and don't use the Investigate tab, it will produce a 95% success rate, which follows the 4% guidance.
It is all a guess anyway. I am just trying to set the goalpost. Ball Park is OK. So, these types of calculators do answer my question. I am trying to secure 4 - 5% fixed return for the next 10 years, so it is good enough. Honestly, I am not really interested in having a really granular/accurate estimate as I will be evaluating every year. Just a little better than nest egg divided by the number of years.
www.flexibleretirementplanner.com
True to some extent. The Firecalc calculator is not using pure guessing. It is framed by historical actual sequencing of returns. However one doesn't know how if the future could be worse than any past 30 year returns.
IMO, the fatal flaw with that calculator is that you have to provide assumptions for rates of return so the results are bound by that critical assumption. WADR, it think FIRECalc's approach of using history is much better. If you're willing to accept providing investment return assumptions then you could do it with a spreadsheet.I would really like something simple like this one that includes SS.
Retirement Withdrawal Calculator
Use the retirement withdrawal calculator to find out how long your money will last or how much money you can withdraw in retirement.
If you're ok with a fixed return, you can just use the PMT function from Excel, but use a real return rather than a nominal return if withdrawals will be increased each year for inflation.
Hmm, Gemini is saying this, per the link above:When I ask an AI an approximation of your question, I get a response as follows.
The AI is making stuff up. Gee. What a shock!
What I like to do when using simple calculators is underestimate my rate of return, underestimate Social Security inflation increases and overestimate how fast our spending will grow. For example, if you think your savings/investments will grow annually by 8%, put in 6% (or less). If you think your social security COLA is going to average 3%, put in 2%. If you think your spending will increase by 4% annually put in 5% (or more). Doing that gives me kind of a worst case answer. If the end number is positive at that point, I figure we are OK. YMMV.
You can enter Soc Sec in FIRECALC (Other Income tab), along with almost any other variable you'd ever need to include. If you'd spend a little time with FIRECALC, look at each tab including Investigate - or give us some specific questions (not asking for your $ amounts) - I suspect FIRECALC will do exactly what you want.I would really like something simple like this one that includes SS.
Retirement Withdrawal Calculator
Use the retirement withdrawal calculator to find out how long your money will last or how much money you can withdraw in retirement.
I agree with this statement in some respects. For some/many on here with massive "war chests" of savings, I could see a change in SS payout. However, the impact to their retirements would be limited based on their available resources. Depending the political direction in the future, we are most likely to see a means testing that will significantly reduce or negate SS for those that have done well outside of SS. For others, I think the direction would be to keep it going as-is. Where the means test "number" falls for reduction or elimination is anyones guess, but I am thinking close to or just north of $1MM in retirement and other fairly liquid savings combined... Just one persons opinion.
It is already means tested although not in a major way. There are many other ways to fix the problem and if soaking the richer folks is an angle, they can just raise the threshold of SS taxes to unlimited as one resolve.
I do know about the bend points, slanting toward the lower earners, etc. I just see a lot that says it will drive further toward what Gumby states is welfare program. A lot of things are already moving that way. That said, I hope that is not the case.
