Market timer or not?

[Lsbcal]

We all know market timing is pure evil. But some of us are just that, evil.

This poll will allow market timers to sort of come out of the closet.

Clarifications:

1) If you answer "all the time", it doesn't mean you are moving money on a daily basis or day trading. It just means you would consider moving assets to other asset classes under certain conditions. It means you are open to moving assets, maybe even most of your assets.

2) Rebalancing is not being defined here as market timing.

 

[W2R]

I admit it, I am so bad at market timing! I don't really know anybody who is any good at it, so I console myself with that fact.

I voted, "I would never market time. Buy-hold only."

 

[REWahoo]

I voted "other." I time boiled eggs.

 

[Lsbcal]

I voted "other." I time boiled eggs.

That is indeed a very loose definition of market timing.

 

[Lsbcal]

I admit it, I am so bad at market timing! I don't really know anybody who is any good at it, so I console myself with that fact.

I voted, "I would never market time. Buy-hold only."

Clearly you've missed the most important contrary indicator (hint: Whee!).

 

[REWahoo]

That is indeed a very loose definition of market timing.

Especially if you don't boil them for more than a couple of minutes.

 

[NW-Bound]

I am a market timer, but have to answer "Other" because the frequency of my buy/sell is not something I have complete control of.

If the market is flat, there's nothing for me to do. When the market goes crazy, then I will try to be a contrarian and go against the crowd. There's no telling when the market will become neurotic, or when it stays calm.

 

[Midpack]

I wasn't sure how to vote, as the moon has nothing to do with my actions. I am not a market timer, but I do look at the tax consequences whenever rebalancing warrants a sale. Sometimes I will delay rebalancing due to avoid a tax hit that looks unnecessary.

 

[RobbieB]

I did it once, but not on purpose. And I really didn't do it, my FA did it.

Last fall I diversified and sold off half of my single largest equity. I didn't want to sell that much as I was trying to minimize capitol gains. I wanted to sell 10% and keep doing it for a while. He sold 50% and I had a 50K gain. So at the end of the year he sells off a bunch of stuff at a loss to zero out the gain. I ask him if he's getting rid of some dogs and he says no, they are all good stocks and I'm going to buy it all back but I have to wait 30 days to avoid the "wash sale".

He sold them all end of December and the market went south for the next 5 weeks and when he bought it all back (and them some) I made out very nicely. I sold high and bought low.

So, not really market timing and I don't believe in it either, it was just tax avoidance but hey sometimes you just get lucky -

 

[Lsbcal]

I put in a few clarifications in my original post.

 

[ABQ2015]

A full moon is every month. Several times a year could be less than 12 times a year. Did you mean a "blue moon"?

 

[easysurfer]

I voted for the first option, "Never..." as I stubbornly try to follow indexes and rebalance only once a year if needed.

 

[Senator]

I do not time the market, other than my monthly buys.

I typically put a limit order in, near the start if the month. It is 1-2% below the current market price.

It it doesn't hit by the 15th or so, I adjust it a bit. It seems like I get a small discount on most buys.

I am already in for this month's purchases. 100 Shrs of DVY. 30 Shares of IVV. It adds another ~$33 a month to my dividend stream.

 

[Lsbcal]

A full moon is every month. Several times a year could be less than 12 times a year. Did you mean a "blue moon"?

I guess blue moon would make more sense. Werewolf's can take read this literally.

 

[rodi]

I've tried some market timing and my "timing" was so bad it was a clue for what NOT to do.

I've done much better since converting to a couch potato portfolio and rebalancing only when it gets out of wack by 5% or more.

 

[NW-Bound]

I am a market timer, but have to answer "Other" because the frequency of my buy/sell is not something I have complete control of.

If the market is flat, there's nothing for me to do. When the market goes crazy, then I will try to be a contrarian and go against the crowd. There's no telling when the market will become neurotic, or when it stays calm.

I put in a few clarifications in my original post.

I saw the clarifications. Still would not change how I vote.

I am a true market timer, not one of these wimpy rebalancers. I need no sanction from any guru to buy/sell.

Sir Templeton is my hero. When the market was undervalued, he said so. When the market was in bubble territory, he was not afraid to say it was. Templeton did not beat around the bush.

 

[jjquantz]

I did it once, but not on purpose. And I really didn't do it, my FA did it.

...

He sold them all end of December and the market went south for the next 5 weeks and when he bought it all back (and them some) I made out very nicely. I sold high and bought low.

So, not really market timing and I don't believe in it either, it was just tax avoidance but hey sometimes you just get lucky -

I've been lucky twice - Like Robbie, I got lucky this winter - transferred DW's IRA to her TSP account. So, liquidated her holdings in late December and then watched the market plummet while Fidelity/TSP took their time getting the cash transferred. By the time we got back in, things were down about 10% or so.

The first time was way back in 1980, DW's grandparents had given us a gift of 100 shares of Southern Co. stock. We were still in college and needed cash badly. I told the broker (remember them) to sell on the first trading day of 1981 and that was the high point until well into 1982.

Still, not a market timer.

 

[Walt34]

I have no idea what the market is going to do and I know it, so I buy & hold, a couch potato portfolio. It's kinda hard to screw that up.

 

[Fedup]

I voted that I'm a full blown addict. It is what it is, no shame about it.

 

[audreyh1]

Wait - there is a full moon several times a year. Like 12. That's quite a bit more than very occasionally IMO.

 

[DrRoy]

I tried hard to do it for many years, but I'm totally on the wagon now.

 

[Lsbcal]

Wait - there is a full moon several times a year. Like 12. That's quite a bit more than very occasionally IMO.

You missed the word "maybe".

 

[nash031]

I'm closer to buy/hold/rebalance than anything, but I do look for value in stocks and funds. I don't view that as MT, but some might. The difference being that I'm not trying to time when to buy and sell, but instead trying to find stocks/funds that are undervalued and buying them, selling them when they are properly valued or overvalued (which has been pretty rare - the selling part). The primary difference is that it's based on numbers and cash flow, not trends, growth expectations, what Cramer says, etc. I don't speculate based on perceived future market behavior nor on "trends" which is what I see as MT.

So I answered "other".

 

[MrLoco]

I haven't been a market timer in the past....but....I am in a situation where I must confess I am now.

I have an AA of 52/48 equities/fixed income and I have decided I want to move this to 60/40. In order to do this I must exchange $400k from fixed income to equities. but... I just can't do it .... not yet. You see.... I know, in fact I am certain, the day I do it, the market will tumble and the "bear" market will begin. I will stare at CNBC all day and see drops in the DJIA of 250-300 points every day. I can hear you laughing at me.

I know I can DCA half now and the rest over the next 12 months..... but I am greedy and want to buy in at the bottom.

If the bull market continues and I do not rebalance I will reach my desired 60/40 AA anyway. Yes, I will have missed out on gains during the run up but I can live with that.

Honestly, I think I will do the exchange all at once sometime soon (within the next 12 months) and then leave the country for a year and live in some remote part of the world where there is no TV, internet, or newspapers.

 

[LuckyDog]

I answered 'other'. But, in early 2000, at the advice of a newsletter whose name I will not mention, I pulled everything out of the stock market and tucked it into the company guaranteed fund earning 6%. Then, at advice of the same newsletter, put it all back into the market in early 2003. That was the luckiest break of my financial life...

LuckyDog