target2019
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3.16% in dividends, 50/50 allocation. Total perfromance for the year has been something like RLBGX., maybe 15%?Hi, been awhile since i dropped in. Just noticed the big market drop today and am interested in
any educated guesses on where we may be headed in '25, especially relative to those with a similar PF AA to mine. I'm 66, semi-retired, with no debt, investment assets (before today) just over 3M FWIW. Relatively low COLA. PF is 50/50 equity/bond ETFs. Large positions in ST bond (SCHO, SHY BILS ) TIPS and floating rate funds. I've reduced bond duration to mostly short term. Equities are mostly US based - Large cap dividend oriented, and recently boosted small cap exposure...
I'll be in the realm of 95k in div income for this year, roughly in line w/ 2023. I wasn't savvy enough to jump out of bonds ahead of the recent downturn so NAVs have been slow to recover. Bonds continue to frustrate me given that they no longer seem to behave inverse to equities. On days like this bonds AND equities are down in-tandem.
I have no idea what to expect in 2025 but hope we aren't due for panicky volatility for a sustained period. I'm already wary about my SS and ACA being unrightfully screwed with let alone any big market drawdown that could stall what's been pretty stable and steady growth in recent years.
Thanks for any thoughts: )
RLBGX dropped from 37.22 to 34.27 over the last two days. That's -8.6% for NAV.
I would prepare for market volatility, SS and ACA scares. If you have $1.5M invested in equity funds, the past tells us that could drop quite a bit. As you know bond funds can also go wonky.
BlackRock is predicting that American Excellence will be the theme for 2025. JPM, Vanguard, Schwab, Fidelity and many more have 2025 projections that probably won't be 100% accurate.
My feeling about this time is that when most expect to reap even more rewards from their investments in a time of change, the outcome can differ, sometimes in an alarming way. Dot-com, Great Recession, COVID Recession...
Another opinion is that the post-2000 era really bothers the younger generations. There's a lot of unhappiness for various reasons. So I'm fine with having 10% allocation to cash at this time. If there are fewer rate cuts next year (a big IF), I'll be fine. If there are more cuts next year, we'll be fine.
But your question is really asking what the crystal ball sees for 2025. It could happen that your clients disappear. But I'm sure you have a plan to transition to full retirement under different scenarios.
Good luck, and enjoy life.