New Member-Recently crossed the 1-year retirement mark!!

APP01

Dryer sheet aficionado
Joined
Apr 25, 2025
Messages
43
Location
Massachusetts
Finally, introducing myself. About 2 years ago, I stumbled across FIRECalc and have been a lurker on this forum since, reading so much great info and learning from your experiences. Have also been an avid reader on other investment forums since 2000.

There is a lot below, so hopefully it doesn't put you to sleep, but much can be credited to what I learned reading here. Thank you! I am looking forward to contributing to this forum where I can.

About DW and me:
DW and I are lifelong Massachusetts residents, and I retired in April 2024 after a 40+ year career in high tech, months before my 64 birthday. DW was a SAHM for most of the years. She is a year younger, we are empty nesters, married at ages young and she has booted me after 40+ years. I worked full-time at a great company for my first 19 years, completed a few degrees and a number of other business/management/entrepreneurial classes over the years. DW was amazing in supporting this all while we started a family.

Overall, the transition from work to retirement was not difficult; however, at first, there was a bit of withdrawal breaking work-related habits and routines, then, without realizing it, maybe 1 month later, I was in full retirement mode!

Just an advanced warning, as you read below, you will see that I am a bit crazy with analyzing stuff. My background was engineering/business, and I do enjoy really digging into the numbers and doing a bunch of "what-if" modeling. I do the same thing with analyzing data from my drag race car. These activities make for a great exercise when I wake at 5am or earlier and can't make noise outside 😀

Preparation for retiring - Mentally:
It took me a number of years leading up to retirement to get the right mindset to leave the corporate rat race, and a job I really enjoyed with a nice income. I was fortunate that for most of my career, I worked with great people and had good leadership.

Before retirement was ever a thought, the biggest jump or risk in my career was in 1999 when I left my first company of 19 years and went to a startup at a much-reduced salary. Taking that risk and a bit of luck was the best career decision I made.

I left that startup in 2007 (age 47), and I took 18 months off. Soon realized I missed working and went back to work. Looking back, this helped me better understand the mindset I needed to "really retire".

Retirement would come up in conversations with family, and their first comment was, even from retired folks, "How can you retire, you can't sit still!" DW and I were not worried about keeping busy in retirement, and often talked about what we were going to be transitioning TO. The list of things we do, and WANT to do is long. Now retired, we quickly found out there is still not enough time to add more activities to the fun list! We are busier than when working, but doing 90% of what we really want.

Financially:
I started contributing to a 401k, company ESOP in 1980, and purchased our first mutual fund around 1985. Started with individual equities around 1996 and bonds in 2000.
It was not till the last 6 years of my career, I was seriously considering retirement even though I enjoyed work, so a sliding 6-month window started when I would pull the trigger. The initial target to retire was 2020, COVID hit, all my work travel stopped and I worked from home 100%. Since I interacted with company locations worldwide, this allowed me to take advantage of time zones and free up day times. The greatly improved work-life balance, especially not being on a plane 2+x per month with the added flexibility, was amazing, so I decided to wait and see.

Challenges:
During the 6-month sliding retirement windows, the two biggest mental/financial obstacles were: First, leaving non-vested restricted stock options on the table, and second, understanding "what was enough money" since my entire life I worked to have more. In time, I realized having the extra retirement years was more important, greatly influenced by the addition of grandchildren.

The other BIG challenge I had was shifting from the accumulation mindset of growing our NW, to the distribution mode. Mentally accumulating and trying to grow our NW was easier for me, but spending that money was more challenging. Discussions with a FA to have a second set of eyes helped confirm my analysis and I was good to go.

Everything lined up, and we pulled the trigger on April first 2024. It was not an April fools joke!

How did we get to this point:
Being the sole income earner, I hated having debt in case something happened with my job, so from the start, we focused on paying our mortgage off and accomplished that at 41yo. We had no other major debts. Except for the early years of working, where I had to take car loans, as soon as we had a good cash flow, if we tool a loan it was 5 to 8k (if the interest rate made sense), paid the car balance from cash, and paid them off in a year just to help with our credit score. We mostly lived within our means, but did splurge especially on our 2 daughters, and now grandchildren.

We became empty-nesters 8 years ago and knew we had too much home. Our mission for a two years was to find local land that met our "must have" requirements, the main one being privacy. Four years ago, we downsized and built a home that better matched our current lifestyle, and reduced unnecessary expenses, especially on the energy-efficient side. The downsized home actually cost more than what we sold our previous home for, and it was a conscious decision because we did things exactly as we wanted, and the COVID lumber prices added cost.

Back to financial stuff:
During my career, I was able to max out my 401k/catch-ups for all but a few of my first career years, take advantage of maximum company matches, and various company stock plans. Unfortunately, it was not until the last few years of working that a ROTH 401k was an employer option. tIRA's to ROTH conversions did not make sense while working, so most of our retirement-specific stuff is pretax. The start-up company I joined also helped give a jump to the NW.

Asset allocation:
During the first 30+ working years, AA was about 90% equities/equity funds/total market ETFs, mostly in tIRAs, with some company stock and other equities in a brokerage account, then 10% "safe" fixed income/cash. I had 4 company changes over the years and rolled each 401k into self-directed brokerage tIRAs, providing more investment flexibility. The tIRAs grew significantly over this time.

As retirement approached, the AA gradually shifted to the current:
41% Equities/Equity Funds/Index funds
35% Bonds(including some of my state, Massachusetts, muni-bonds that are laddered, providing tax-free income out to 2053 with an after-tax equivalent of 6.7%). The munis help me sleep at night.

Three annuities, tax-deferred:
* DW and I each have a multi-year guaranteed fixed interest annuity at 5.4% with 6 years left, and no penalty access to 10% per year if needed.
* DW also has one annuity that is tied to S&P500 index, with 4 years left. Up 36% since August 2022.
* The remainder is in Cash, MMF, and laddered T-notes. We will be needing this money to live on for the next 5 years, and pay ROTH conversion taxes.

As of 5/11/25, YTD NW has increased 1.9% (includes 5 months of spending, where Q1 bills are disproportionately higher than other quarters).

Other Ways I look at the current AA to see how things are broken down are as follows (percentages are rounded):

Cash/Fixed (including T-Notes, GFIA's) 24%
Bonds 35%
Equities 41%
-------------------------------------------
Another breakdown:
tIRAs 48%
Tax Free 35% (This includes the muni bonds (interest all tax free), and other interest producing things such as cash/MM, T-Notes, so there is only tax on the interest)
Tax Differed (these are the 3 annuities) accounting for 16%
---------------------------
Types of Holdings:
2% Cash
4% Roth <---- way too low
48% tIRA's
12% T-Notes
7% Regular Brokerage acct-Equities (Includes the annuity tied to the SP500)
17% Regular Brokerage acct-Bonds
10% Guaranteed Fixed Interest Annuities

I manage most of the above myself, except for having a small portion of equities in the tIRA in an actively managed agressive account. I do work with a FA, CPA, and estate lawyer, where the FA and CPA help mostly on tax planning, ROTH stuff, SS and drawdown options. The EL on estate planning, including dividing assets between DW and I for estate tax planning, including legacy planning.


The retirement plan underway was kicked off on April 1, 2024 as follows:
1. For the first 14 months of retirement, we have been paying for medical 100% from our HSA. I will be 65 this summer and have signed up for Medicare and have a health plan in place. DW is a year younger, so will have 1 more year before Medicare. After comparing our state marketplace health insurance costs and comparing them to my last company's COBRA, COBRA was less expensive for similar plans, so I opted for that. Normally, COBRA is only for 18 months, but with me going on Medicare before the 18 months, which is a life event, my DW can take COBRA over (be elevated to owner) and extend it another 18 months even though she only needs 13 months till 65.

We will continue to use our HSA to cover 5+ more years of our medical / medicare premiums until we start SS, then it will be used for other med bills.

2. I plan to hold off on collecting SS until 70. DW does not have enough SS credits, and will get spousal SS (so she needs to wait till I start collecting - may be giving up some collecting on her part, but the gain of me waiting outweighs that, especially if I die before DW, giving her a larger benefit).

Using what the current SS amount would be, along with each year till 70,has been considered in my analysis as to when we start collecting. We will evaluate this yearly, along with our health, to see if we should start earlier, but at this time, holding off results in overall more SS money in the long term.

3. Now with minimal earned income, last year we started maximizing ROTH conversions and adjust the conversion amount to get close to, but not over, the next higher IRMAA threshold, along with balancing the overall taxes. The plan is to do this for 5 more years until I am 70.

During this time, we will live on savings, laddered T-Notes, and income from Muni-bonds. We are using cash to pay the ROTH conversion taxes (both FED and Massachusetts state), allowing us to put 100% into the ROTH.

Currently, 48% of the portfolio is in tIRA's and only 4% ROTH- WAY TOO LOW. The planned Roth Conversion over the next 5 years I expect will make tIRAs 32-34% and ROTH 20-18% of the overall portfolio. It will be hard to do much more without impacting an IRMAA threshold.

My only concern is that the Roth conversion I did in December 2024 is invested in what I consider to be moderately conservative. I keep weighing this, and whether I should be more aggressive in the ROTH. Then to keep the same portfolio risk/AA, shift some of the tIRA more conservative option, given that the ROTH will be the last money accessed, or passed on to heirs, so more time.

4. The next two estimates are a bit clunky, since much can change between now and age 70 and then 73 when RMDs start.

At age 70 (5 years from now), looking at what our future income will be between SS, income generated by the portfolio (todays dollars), including tax free muni-bond interest (assuming bonds are not called early), and accounting for 4% inflation, that should conservatively cover 78% of our future inflated expenses without pulling anything from the portfolio.

When RMD's kick in at age 73, if I use the current tIRA value (add just 4%/year growth in the next 8 years which is super low) minus the future ROTH conversions for next 5 years, the resulting RMDs added to the fixed income above, the estimate covers 119% of future expenses, again without touching any other accounts.

Probability of the success:
I use a few different tools, including FireCalc, Quicken Lifetime Planner, Flexible Retirement Planner, as well as my forever tool, Excel, that I have used since the mid 1980's. They all allow me to look at things in slightly different ways, and fortunately, all results are mostly positive.

I have 20+ years of Quicken data, including spending that Ijust casually looked at. When I was seriously considering retirement, I started looking at the spending details. Glad my DW had no interest, otherwise she would see what my hobbies really cost.. lol.

Our retirement goal, at a minimum, was the ability to maintain the same standard of living and have room for "special lump expenses" same as we did when working. It was not that we will spend this much, but we could if we wanted. Took the most recent three years' spending as a baseline, added 10% for anything I may have missed, and then increased it 10% year over year, on top of inflation. I realize that this stacking may be unrealistic making me to leave some growth on the table, but again, it gives a buffer for the unknowns.

The lump expenses I have included are things like future cars, home projects, expensive hobbies, grandchildren' 529 plans, gifting, and donations. I also tried to account for those things that always seem to jump crazy every year, such as home taxes, car/home insurance, medical copays, and other out-of-pocket medical expenses.

Most recent results: With hitting the 1-year retirement mark, spending was 2% higher than our previous year's actual spending, and well below the stretched spending. The biggest difference in the spending categories was a shift from work-related stuff, to more medical, given my last employer covered 100% of the medical premiums.

Using the information above with these somewhat realistic cases: FIRECalc found that 0 cycles failed, for a success rate of 100.0%.


Stressing the financial models:
Given that the analysis is only as good as the assumptions made, and many are unknown, I ran additional models with a downside buffer to stress things:

* Made future expenses 15% YOY higher than anticipated, plus those lump expenses mentioned above.
* 5% annualized inflation rate.
* 5% annualized return for equities and 2% for bonds (not including the muni-bonds)
* Essentially, with the 5% and 5% (2%) above, that is a zero equity (-3% bond) real return.
* Going back 3 generations, most of my family has lived to mid-90s with a high of 104, DW family is upper 70's to early 90's, so I used end of life at 95 years old with a stretch to 100 years old. At that point there will still be money in the portfolio, as well as house and other assets that can be sold as we may need to transition into a care facility.
* Ran simulations that include one of us dying much earlier, and the tax impact of filing single, and the loss of that SS. All other sources of income will remain the same.

Using the information above with the realistic cases: >>>> FIRECalc found that 0 cycles failed, for a success rate of 100.0%.

Other Notes:

I have spent some time with the FIRECalc Investigate Features, such as determining spending levels, and all looks reasonable.

With much of the above, I realize I am leaving some potential investment upside on the table, but the peace of mind in volatile markets helps me sleep and not second-guess myself. Now that I am past year 1 of retirement and have a better handle on things, I feel more comfortable adjusting the plan with what I have learned.

Lastly, the DW does not get into the financial stuff, so for the past 15 years, I have a "when I die" folder that outlines all accounts and next steps for her to take.


So am I crazy with this over-analysis and is anything off base?

Thanks again and looking forward to being more active here.
 
Welcome aboard!

It certainly seems like you have developed a solid plan.

My only concern is that the Roth conversion I did in December 2024 is invested in what I consider to be moderately conservative. I keep weighing this, and whether I should be more aggressive in the ROTH. Then to keep the same portfolio risk/AA, shift some of the tIRA more conservative option, given that the ROTH will be the last money accessed, or passed on to heirs, so more time.

Yes, this is probably true (that you should invest the Roth more aggressively and be more conservative in the tax-deferred accounts). However, there is no free lunch: If you, for example, make this move but keep your overall AA the same as it is now, you will have a higher effective AA than you do now. (See, for example, https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Tax-adjusted_asset_allocation .) But this is a fairly minor point and I don't mean to overemphasize it; but this point is often completely ignored here.
 
Thanks for your feedback. Always good to get others thoughts. Good article helpful info on the tax treatment. I will definitely consider that.
 
Wow! That is some introduction! Welcome 🙏🏼
It sounds like you’re off to a great start in filling your time in retirement!
You mentioned you’re empty nesters. Where do your kids live and will grandchildren be in your future ( if you know?). That could account for some increased travel costs and definitely increased spending/ investment decisions for family planning and assistance.
What types of activities are you and your DW doing or starting to fill some of your time? Pickleball (we just started a learn to play program for adults in our town)?
All the best to you and your family.
 
Thank you for the feedback. My intro sort of shows how I dig into most things at a detailed level - just bit obsessive.

Fortunately the children and now two grandchildren are within 15 minutes so no real travel expenses there. However, our travel expenses will increase. Our first big purchase in retirement was a travel trailer. When DD1 and DD2 were young we had a small trailer and loved it. This trailer is much nicer making travel even more fun. We have pets, so this makes taking them so much easier.

On the family assistance part, we do have elderly parents and spend some time helping them. They are also close by.

As far as activities, DW and I are into classic cars, both working on them and car meet-up events with friends. I have a drag race car that race often at the track.

Our property borders some great hiking trails, so we start with a coffee and are off before it gets too hot. When we have time we go target shooting at the local range.

There are many other things, from woodworking to gardening, to construction projects around the home. I am just wrapping up excavating and forming a large pattio area that I hope to pour concrete in the next 2 weeks.

Lastly, the activity that makes us both exhausted at the end if the day, but is the best is we babysit our granddaughter who is almost 2yo a weekly. Love it!

Thanks for the wishes and the best to you and yours.
 
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Welcome to the Forum. Thanks for the thorough introduction. No problem with the analysis. Sometimes, you just have to consider what you're currently doing and if it still makes sense. You're just a year into retirement and this is a good time to do a complete check on your direction.

As I was reading, my first thought was Roth conversions. And then, I saw that was your first thought as well. You're right that it's a bit tricky, trying to avoid IRMAA, for instance and trying to limit taxes in general. Good that you have a fair amount of cash/cash-like funds to pay the taxes. That's very important with Roth conversions as it essentially adds to the value of the Roth vs the tIRA by the amount of taxes you are willing to pay in the process.

By the way, a mix of tIRA and Roth IRAs is not always bad. IOW tIRAs have some advantages when you can leave them with a stepped up basis OR donate them via QCDs.

I don't know your numbers, but since FIRECalc says you're good - I'd say you are likely more than good.

I've been trying, unsuccessfully, to get DW interested in our finances. Sounds like you're in the same boat. Glad you've got a "after I die" folder. I'm w*rking on a note book with similar title. I'm trying to lay it out in narrative form but with the numbers included - and especially with phone numbers/web sites for her to go to for help.

We swore off "financial planners" long ago. If you've found an honest-to-goodness fee for service planner, I applaud you. Most planners want to sell you stuff or charge you an assets-under-management fee or BOTH! Run from them.

Well, before I exceed your post length, I'll sign off with another "Welcome to FIRE Forum." I hope you will post often.
 
Welcome to the Forum, great intro post! Look forward to hearing more from you.
 
Thanks for the welcome and feedback folks.

Welcome to the Forum. Thanks for the thorough introduction. No problem with the analysis. Sometimes, you just have to consider what you're currently doing and if it still makes sense. You're just a year into retirement, and this is a good time to do a complete check on your direction.
I completely agree with your comment on doing a 1-year assessment. I am going through that now, and in part, my introduction write-up was helping me summarize everything to be sure I did not overlook anything in my assessment. I am comfortable with how things progressed and getting more comfortable spending money.


By the way, a mix of tIRA and Roth IRAs is not always bad. IOW tIRAs have some advantages when you can leave them with a stepped up basis OR donate them via QCDs.

Can you please elaborate on the tIRAs with a stepped-up basis? I had though that IRAs generally do not receive a stepped-up basis at death.


We swore off "financial planners" long ago. If you've found an honest-to-goodness fee for service planner, I applaud you. Most planners want to sell you stuff or charge you an assets-under-management fee or BOTH! Run from them.
The main in-person interactions with the FA were months before I gave my notice, where I just wanted a second set of eyes to confirm things for us. We have had a few virtual sessions since. To date, the only money that I have paid was the payment for the initial meeting, including analysis of my numbers, and strategizing on the distribution of funds, including ROTH conversions. I have not purchased any products from them directly. However, I have made some purchases outside, given their feedback, such as setting up 529 plans, T-note purchases, and a cash strategy for the next 5 years of living, and ROTH taxes.

As far as the fee paid, I can argue with myself if it was worth it. Yes they confirmed my analysis, so a good double check, but value for dollar not so sure. The only thing beyond that value, as I mentioned above with my DW having no interest in finances, this gives her someone to talk with if I drop tomorrow, even though I am confident that things are in a pretty good position for her.


Thanks again!
 
Thanks for the welcome and feedback folks.


I completely agree with your comment on doing a 1-year assessment. I am going through that now, and in part, my introduction write-up was helping me summarize everything to be sure I did not overlook anything in my assessment. I am comfortable with how things progressed and getting more comfortable spending money.




Can you please elaborate on the tIRAs with a stepped-up basis? I had though that IRAs generally do not receive a stepped-up basis at death.



The main in-person interactions with the FA were months before I gave my notice, where I just wanted a second set of eyes to confirm things for us. We have had a few virtual sessions since. To date, the only money that I have paid was the payment for the initial meeting, including analysis of my numbers, and strategizing on the distribution of funds, including ROTH conversions. I have not purchased any products from them directly. However, I have made some purchases outside, given their feedback, such as setting up 529 plans, T-note purchases, and a cash strategy for the next 5 years of living, and ROTH taxes.

As far as the fee paid, I can argue with myself if it was worth it. Yes they confirmed my analysis, so a good double check, but value for dollar not so sure. The only thing beyond that value, as I mentioned above with my DW having no interest in finances, this gives her someone to talk with if I drop tomorrow, even though I am confident that things are in a pretty good position for her.


Thanks again!
Heh, heh, I could be wrong about stepped up basis. That's what I thought though (fortunately) never put it to the test personally. I'm sure one of our more knowledgeable people will chime in soon with the exact answer.

By the way, that's why you never take anything you see here without checking it out yourself. (I'd personally never intentionally mislead anyone, but I could be wrong. I was once. Thought I'd made a mistake - and I hadn't.) :facepalm: :blush: ;)
 
Finally, introducing myself. About 2 years ago, I stumbled across FIRECalc and have been a lurker on this forum since, reading so much great info and learning from your experiences. Have also been an avid reader on other investment forums since 2000.

There is a lot below, so hopefully it doesn't put you to sleep, but much can be credited to what I learned reading here. Thank you! I am looking forward to contributing to this forum where I can.

About DW and me:
DW and I are lifelong Massachusetts residents, and I retired in April 2024 after a 40+ year career in high tech, months before my 64 birthday. DW was a SAHM for most of the years. She is a year younger, we are empty nesters, married at ages young and she has booted me after 40+ years. I worked full-time at a great company for my first 19 years, completed a few degrees and a number of other business/management/entrepreneurial classes over the years. DW was amazing in supporting this all while we started a family.

Overall, the transition from work to retirement was not difficult; however, at first, there was a bit of withdrawal breaking work-related habits and routines, then, without realizing it, maybe 1 month later, I was in full retirement mode!

Just an advanced warning, as you read below, you will see that I am a bit crazy with analyzing stuff. My background was engineering/business, and I do enjoy really digging into the numbers and doing a bunch of "what-if" modeling. I do the same thing with analyzing data from my drag race car. These activities make for a great exercise when I wake at 5am or earlier and can't make noise outside 😀

Preparation for retiring - Mentally:
It took me a number of years leading up to retirement to get the right mindset to leave the corporate rat race, and a job I really enjoyed with a nice income. I was fortunate that for most of my career, I worked with great people and had good leadership.

Before retirement was ever a thought, the biggest jump or risk in my career was in 1999 when I left my first company of 19 years and went to a startup at a much-reduced salary. Taking that risk and a bit of luck was the best career decision I made.

I left that startup in 2007 (age 47), and I took 18 months off. Soon realized I missed working and went back to work. Looking back, this helped me better understand the mindset I needed to "really retire".

Retirement would come up in conversations with family, and their first comment was, even from retired folks, "How can you retire, you can't sit still!" DW and I were not worried about keeping busy in retirement, and often talked about what we were going to be transitioning TO. The list of things we do, and WANT to do is long. Now retired, we quickly found out there is still not enough time to add more activities to the fun list! We are busier than when working, but doing 90% of what we really want.

Financially:
I started contributing to a 401k, company ESOP in 1980, and purchased our first mutual fund around 1985. Started with individual equities around 1996 and bonds in 2000.
It was not till the last 6 years of my career, I was seriously considering retirement even though I enjoyed work, so a sliding 6-month window started when I would pull the trigger. The initial target to retire was 2020, COVID hit, all my work travel stopped and I worked from home 100%. Since I interacted with company locations worldwide, this allowed me to take advantage of time zones and free up day times. The greatly improved work-life balance, especially not being on a plane 2+x per month with the added flexibility, was amazing, so I decided to wait and see.

Challenges:
During the 6-month sliding retirement windows, the two biggest mental/financial obstacles were: First, leaving non-vested restricted stock options on the table, and second, understanding "what was enough money" since my entire life I worked to have more. In time, I realized having the extra retirement years was more important, greatly influenced by the addition of grandchildren.

The other BIG challenge I had was shifting from the accumulation mindset of growing our NW, to the distribution mode. Mentally accumulating and trying to grow our NW was easier for me, but spending that money was more challenging. Discussions with a FA to have a second set of eyes helped confirm my analysis and I was good to go.

Everything lined up, and we pulled the trigger on April first 2024. It was not an April fools joke!

How did we get to this point:
Being the sole income earner, I hated having debt in case something happened with my job, so from the start, we focused on paying our mortgage off and accomplished that at 41yo. We had no other major debts. Except for the early years of working, where I had to take car loans, as soon as we had a good cash flow, if we tool a loan it was 5 to 8k (if the interest rate made sense), paid the car balance from cash, and paid them off in a year just to help with our credit score. We mostly lived within our means, but did splurge especially on our 2 daughters, and now grandchildren.

We became empty-nesters 8 years ago and knew we had too much home. Our mission for a two years was to find local land that met our "must have" requirements, the main one being privacy. Four years ago, we downsized and built a home that better matched our current lifestyle, and reduced unnecessary expenses, especially on the energy-efficient side. The downsized home actually cost more than what we sold our previous home for, and it was a conscious decision because we did things exactly as we wanted, and the COVID lumber prices added cost.

Back to financial stuff:
During my career, I was able to max out my 401k/catch-ups for all but a few of my first career years, take advantage of maximum company matches, and various company stock plans. Unfortunately, it was not until the last few years of working that a ROTH 401k was an employer option. tIRA's to ROTH conversions did not make sense while working, so most of our retirement-specific stuff is pretax. The start-up company I joined also helped give a jump to the NW.

Asset allocation:
During the first 30+ working years, AA was about 90% equities/equity funds/total market ETFs, mostly in tIRAs, with some company stock and other equities in a brokerage account, then 10% "safe" fixed income/cash. I had 4 company changes over the years and rolled each 401k into self-directed brokerage tIRAs, providing more investment flexibility. The tIRAs grew significantly over this time.

As retirement approached, the AA gradually shifted to the current:
41% Equities/Equity Funds/Index funds
35% Bonds(including some of my state, Massachusetts, muni-bonds that are laddered, providing tax-free income out to 2053 with an after-tax equivalent of 6.7%). The munis help me sleep at night.

Three annuities, tax-deferred:
* DW and I each have a multi-year guaranteed fixed interest annuity at 5.4% with 6 years left, and no penalty access to 10% per year if needed.
* DW also has one annuity that is tied to S&P500 index, with 4 years left. Up 36% since August 2022.
* The remainder is in Cash, MMF, and laddered T-notes. We will be needing this money to live on for the next 5 years, and pay ROTH conversion taxes.

As of 5/11/25, YTD NW has increased 1.9% (includes 5 months of spending, where Q1 bills are disproportionately higher than other quarters).

Other Ways I look at the current AA to see how things are broken down are as follows (percentages are rounded):

Cash/Fixed (including T-Notes, GFIA's) 24%
Bonds 35%
Equities 41%
-------------------------------------------
Another breakdown:
tIRAs 48%
Tax Free 35% (This includes the muni bonds (interest all tax free), and other interest producing things such as cash/MM, T-Notes, so there is only tax on the interest)
Tax Differed (these are the 3 annuities) accounting for 16%
---------------------------
Types of Holdings:
2% Cash
4% Roth <---- way too low
48% tIRA's
12% T-Notes
7% Regular Brokerage acct-Equities (Includes the annuity tied to the SP500)
17% Regular Brokerage acct-Bonds
10% Guaranteed Fixed Interest Annuities

I manage most of the above myself, except for having a small portion of equities in the tIRA in an actively managed agressive account. I do work with a FA, CPA, and estate lawyer, where the FA and CPA help mostly on tax planning, ROTH stuff, SS and drawdown options. The EL on estate planning, including dividing assets between DW and I for estate tax planning, including legacy planning.


The retirement plan underway was kicked off on April 1, 2024 as follows:
1. For the first 14 months of retirement, we have been paying for medical 100% from our HSA. I will be 65 this summer and have signed up for Medicare and have a health plan in place. DW is a year younger, so will have 1 more year before Medicare. After comparing our state marketplace health insurance costs and comparing them to my last company's COBRA, COBRA was less expensive for similar plans, so I opted for that. Normally, COBRA is only for 18 months, but with me going on Medicare before the 18 months, which is a life event, my DW can take COBRA over (be elevated to owner) and extend it another 18 months even though she only needs 13 months till 65.

We will continue to use our HSA to cover 5+ more years of our medical / medicare premiums until we start SS, then it will be used for other med bills.

2. I plan to hold off on collecting SS until 70. DW does not have enough SS credits, and will get spousal SS (so she needs to wait till I start collecting - may be giving up some collecting on her part, but the gain of me waiting outweighs that, especially if I die before DW, giving her a larger benefit).

Using what the current SS amount would be, along with each year till 70,has been considered in my analysis as to when we start collecting. We will evaluate this yearly, along with our health, to see if we should start earlier, but at this time, holding off results in overall more SS money in the long term.

3. Now with minimal earned income, last year we started maximizing ROTH conversions and adjust the conversion amount to get close to, but not over, the next higher IRMAA threshold, along with balancing the overall taxes. The plan is to do this for 5 more years until I am 70.

During this time, we will live on savings, laddered T-Notes, and income from Muni-bonds. We are using cash to pay the ROTH conversion taxes (both FED and Massachusetts state), allowing us to put 100% into the ROTH.

Currently, 48% of the portfolio is in tIRA's and only 4% ROTH- WAY TOO LOW. The planned Roth Conversion over the next 5 years I expect will make tIRAs 32-34% and ROTH 20-18% of the overall portfolio. It will be hard to do much more without impacting an IRMAA threshold.

My only concern is that the Roth conversion I did in December 2024 is invested in what I consider to be moderately conservative. I keep weighing this, and whether I should be more aggressive in the ROTH. Then to keep the same portfolio risk/AA, shift some of the tIRA more conservative option, given that the ROTH will be the last money accessed, or passed on to heirs, so more time.

4. The next two estimates are a bit clunky, since much can change between now and age 70 and then 73 when RMDs start.

At age 70 (5 years from now), looking at what our future income will be between SS, income generated by the portfolio (todays dollars), including tax free muni-bond interest (assuming bonds are not called early), and accounting for 4% inflation, that should conservatively cover 78% of our future inflated expenses without pulling anything from the portfolio.

When RMD's kick in at age 73, if I use the current tIRA value (add just 4%/year growth in the next 8 years which is super low) minus the future ROTH conversions for next 5 years, the resulting RMDs added to the fixed income above, the estimate covers 119% of future expenses, again without touching any other accounts.

Probability of the success:
I use a few different tools, including FireCalc, Quicken Lifetime Planner, Flexible Retirement Planner, as well as my forever tool, Excel, that I have used since the mid 1980's. They all allow me to look at things in slightly different ways, and fortunately, all results are mostly positive.

I have 20+ years of Quicken data, including spending that Ijust casually looked at. When I was seriously considering retirement, I started looking at the spending details. Glad my DW had no interest, otherwise she would see what my hobbies really cost.. lol.

Our retirement goal, at a minimum, was the ability to maintain the same standard of living and have room for "special lump expenses" same as we did when working. It was not that we will spend this much, but we could if we wanted. Took the most recent three years' spending as a baseline, added 10% for anything I may have missed, and then increased it 10% year over year, on top of inflation. I realize that this stacking may be unrealistic making me to leave some growth on the table, but again, it gives a buffer for the unknowns.

The lump expenses I have included are things like future cars, home projects, expensive hobbies, grandchildren' 529 plans, gifting, and donations. I also tried to account for those things that always seem to jump crazy every year, such as home taxes, car/home insurance, medical copays, and other out-of-pocket medical expenses.

Most recent results: With hitting the 1-year retirement mark, spending was 2% higher than our previous year's actual spending, and well below the stretched spending. The biggest difference in the spending categories was a shift from work-related stuff, to more medical, given my last employer covered 100% of the medical premiums.

Using the information above with these somewhat realistic cases: FIRECalc found that 0 cycles failed, for a success rate of 100.0%.


Stressing the financial models:
Given that the analysis is only as good as the assumptions made, and many are unknown, I ran additional models with a downside buffer to stress things:

* Made future expenses 15% YOY higher than anticipated, plus those lump expenses mentioned above.
* 5% annualized inflation rate.
* 5% annualized return for equities and 2% for bonds (not including the muni-bonds)
* Essentially, with the 5% and 5% (2%) above, that is a zero equity (-3% bond) real return.
* Going back 3 generations, most of my family has lived to mid-90s with a high of 104, DW family is upper 70's to early 90's, so I used end of life at 95 years old with a stretch to 100 years old. At that point there will still be money in the portfolio, as well as house and other assets that can be sold as we may need to transition into a care facility.
* Ran simulations that include one of us dying much earlier, and the tax impact of filing single, and the loss of that SS. All other sources of income will remain the same.

Using the information above with the realistic cases: >>>> FIRECalc found that 0 cycles failed, for a success rate of 100.0%.

Other Notes:

I have spent some time with the FIRECalc Investigate Features, such as determining spending levels, and all looks reasonable.

With much of the above, I realize I am leaving some potential investment upside on the table, but the peace of mind in volatile markets helps me sleep and not second-guess myself. Now that I am past year 1 of retirement and have a better handle on things, I feel more comfortable adjusting the plan with what I have learned.

Lastly, the DW does not get into the financial stuff, so for the past 15 years, I have a "when I die" folder that outlines all accounts and next steps for her to take.


So am I crazy with this over-analysis and is anything off base?

Thanks again and looking forward to being more active here.
Thank you for the detailed post. I picked up somethings to think about.

Based on the information here, you either have plenty of funds to work with (and you are the most detailed/analytical person I have ever come across) or your margin for error is not that great. I like to think it is former.

I know this post is financial focused but hope this aspect of retirement if not consuming your time. In other words, are you truly enjoying the fruits of your labor?
 
Thank you for the detailed post. I picked up somethings to think about.

Based on the information here, you either have plenty of funds to work with (and you are the most detailed/analytical person I have ever come across) or your margin for error is not that great. I like to think it is former.

I know this post is financial focused but hope this aspect of retirement if not consuming your time. In other words, are you truly enjoying the fruits of your labor?
You are very welcome, thank you for the feedback. I am glad something I wrote has helped.

I do tend to be extremely analytical in part from many years in engineering roles requiring attention to details. Doing this type of stuff for myself is fun. As far as the margin for error, given that retirement was a new venture for us, I wanted a very high confidence going into it. We worked way too hard to get where we are, and I did not want to blunder that.

Now seeing where we are from a year ago, I feel so much better and can start to relate to many of the folks on here who have been retired for years.

It does take time to do this analysis, but it is not all time-consuming. That intro summary was going on for a long while, little bits at a time leading up to this point. I am usually up by 5am, whereas the DW sleeps later. Most of the things I like to do make noise, so doing this is a "quiet" early morning pastime as the rest of the world wakes up. Definitely enjoying retirement, and my stress level is the lowest it has been in years.
 
You are very welcome, thank you for the feedback. I am glad something I wrote has helped.

I do tend to be extremely analytical in part from many years in engineering roles requiring attention to details. Doing this type of stuff for myself is fun. As far as the margin for error, given that retirement was a new venture for us, I wanted a very high confidence going into it. We worked way too hard to get where we are, and I did not want to blunder that.

Now seeing where we are from a year ago, I feel so much better and can start to relate to many of the folks on here who have been retired for years.

It does take time to do this analysis, but it is not all time-consuming. That intro summary was going on for a long while, little bits at a time leading up to this point. I am usually up by 5am, whereas the DW sleeps later. Most of the things I like to do make noise, so doing this is a "quiet" early morning pastime as the rest of the world wakes up. Definitely enjoying retirement, and my stress level is the lowest it has been in years.
The engineer career makes sense. I am an accountant so we are branches from the same tree in many ways.

I ran my numbers in FireCalc, Boldin, and had a financial advisor review, and still struggle with feelings of scarcity.

Sounds like you are now really finding your groove so that is awesome.
 
Welcome, Welcome that was a great introduction and you found friends here for life here.

It sounds like you have found your way and wish you the very best in Retirement.
 
Omg. I had a typo. Should of been NOT BOOTED ME.. OOPS. I need better glasses.. lol we are very happily married!! So much for me reading things over.... 😀
 
Omg. I had a typo. Should of been NOT BOOTED ME.. OOPS. I need better glasses.. lol we are very happily married!! So much for me reading things over.... 😀
We'll let it go this time. :2funny: Just don't let DW see it.
 
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