I have the feeling I am setting myself up for a massive attack by the EV haters. So I ask to limit replies to serious Tesla fans so we can discuss the pros and cons without getting off track too far.
Still having my 2004 Acura TSX after 22 years I find it hard to believe that I am thinking about this with my Tesla just under 2 years old and 13,000 miles. But . . .
Elon just announced that HW3 will not cut it for full FSD and implied that only FSD purchasers would get a free upgrade or maybe some new car deal. He also announced that cyber cab will start in Austin in June with volume production in 2026.
I had been planning to wait until sometime in 2026 and upgrade to a HW5 car, but some commentary about how once Tesla has true cyber cab it won't make sense to keep making regular cars. That idea plus the ideas of the tax credit going away and the possibility that the price of FSD may jump once it is perfected got me thinking about getting the new car now.
Another reason to get a new one is to be able to keep an eye on FSD to properly evaluate my large TSLA position.
Here is how I see the math:
Sale price plus destination fee $61,400.
Trade in on Model Y ($28,800) = $32,600.
Tax credit if I can keep 2025 MAGI below $150,000 ($7500) = $25,100.
Sales Tax and registration $2600 - $27,700.
So I will be out of pocket $27,700 to get a nicer car that I do not drive all that much.
Since FSD costs $8000 I can rationalize it down to $19,700 since I would have to pay for FSD anyway.
Property tax and insurance will likely go up adding to the actual cost.
Pros:
Get a car more likely to keep longer. Save on FSD at current monthly price after 6.66 years (ominous number). Maybe save on FSD more if price goes up.
Get access to V13 and beyond which it looks like my current car will not get. Car drives pretty well as Audrey pointed out. But hands on evaluation helps with TSLA research,
Get smoother ride. Get quieter ride. Nice to have but I can tolerate the current car.
Can have any color. But I had liked Horizon Blue shown in China but not currently available here.
Can have a trailer hitch, but don't have a trailer. Maybe nice. Maybe not.
Speed boost. Don't need.
Front bumper camera.
Cons:
I don't drive that much although I use FSD all the time.
Blowing $20,000. Although I was looking for ways to spend more money and lose more than that on my portfolio several days per week.
I could buy a new boiler or remodel my bathroom. I probably will do the boiler anyway. I have some large trees near the house that could be cut down.
Alternative plan:
The current "Launch Version" forces you to buy all options. Fair for what you get if you want them.
If I gamble on the tax credit staying long enough and the FSD price not jumping it might make sense to hold off until the standard trim is offered.
If I can buy FSD after the main purchase and the price drops a little I might be able to get an extra $2500 state credit if the MSRP is less than $50,000.
Conclusion:
Maybe I wrote all of this as a way to organize my thoughts. The Tesla guy called within minutes of my doing the trade in estimate. I told him that if I were honest I would probably mull this around and put it off.
I suppose if the cyber cab takes off or the FSD price jumps my TSLA stock will probably go up more than enough to compensate.
And, gee, what am I thinking trading in a perfectly good car when I only drive 7000 miles a year.
Well thanks for listening and sorry for wasting electricity.
Still having my 2004 Acura TSX after 22 years I find it hard to believe that I am thinking about this with my Tesla just under 2 years old and 13,000 miles. But . . .
Elon just announced that HW3 will not cut it for full FSD and implied that only FSD purchasers would get a free upgrade or maybe some new car deal. He also announced that cyber cab will start in Austin in June with volume production in 2026.
I had been planning to wait until sometime in 2026 and upgrade to a HW5 car, but some commentary about how once Tesla has true cyber cab it won't make sense to keep making regular cars. That idea plus the ideas of the tax credit going away and the possibility that the price of FSD may jump once it is perfected got me thinking about getting the new car now.
Another reason to get a new one is to be able to keep an eye on FSD to properly evaluate my large TSLA position.
Here is how I see the math:
Sale price plus destination fee $61,400.
Trade in on Model Y ($28,800) = $32,600.
Tax credit if I can keep 2025 MAGI below $150,000 ($7500) = $25,100.
Sales Tax and registration $2600 - $27,700.
So I will be out of pocket $27,700 to get a nicer car that I do not drive all that much.
Since FSD costs $8000 I can rationalize it down to $19,700 since I would have to pay for FSD anyway.
Property tax and insurance will likely go up adding to the actual cost.
Pros:
Get a car more likely to keep longer. Save on FSD at current monthly price after 6.66 years (ominous number). Maybe save on FSD more if price goes up.
Get access to V13 and beyond which it looks like my current car will not get. Car drives pretty well as Audrey pointed out. But hands on evaluation helps with TSLA research,
Get smoother ride. Get quieter ride. Nice to have but I can tolerate the current car.
Can have any color. But I had liked Horizon Blue shown in China but not currently available here.
Can have a trailer hitch, but don't have a trailer. Maybe nice. Maybe not.
Speed boost. Don't need.
Front bumper camera.
Cons:
I don't drive that much although I use FSD all the time.
Blowing $20,000. Although I was looking for ways to spend more money and lose more than that on my portfolio several days per week.
I could buy a new boiler or remodel my bathroom. I probably will do the boiler anyway. I have some large trees near the house that could be cut down.
Alternative plan:
The current "Launch Version" forces you to buy all options. Fair for what you get if you want them.
If I gamble on the tax credit staying long enough and the FSD price not jumping it might make sense to hold off until the standard trim is offered.
If I can buy FSD after the main purchase and the price drops a little I might be able to get an extra $2500 state credit if the MSRP is less than $50,000.
Conclusion:
Maybe I wrote all of this as a way to organize my thoughts. The Tesla guy called within minutes of my doing the trade in estimate. I told him that if I were honest I would probably mull this around and put it off.
I suppose if the cyber cab takes off or the FSD price jumps my TSLA stock will probably go up more than enough to compensate.
And, gee, what am I thinking trading in a perfectly good car when I only drive 7000 miles a year.
Well thanks for listening and sorry for wasting electricity.