New Tesla - Slap Some Sense Into Me

[joesxm3]

I have the feeling I am setting myself up for a massive attack by the EV haters. So I ask to limit replies to serious Tesla fans so we can discuss the pros and cons without getting off track too far.

Still having my 2004 Acura TSX after 22 years I find it hard to believe that I am thinking about this with my Tesla just under 2 years old and 13,000 miles. But . . .

Elon just announced that HW3 will not cut it for full FSD and implied that only FSD purchasers would get a free upgrade or maybe some new car deal. He also announced that cyber cab will start in Austin in June with volume production in 2026.

I had been planning to wait until sometime in 2026 and upgrade to a HW5 car, but some commentary about how once Tesla has true cyber cab it won't make sense to keep making regular cars. That idea plus the ideas of the tax credit going away and the possibility that the price of FSD may jump once it is perfected got me thinking about getting the new car now.

Another reason to get a new one is to be able to keep an eye on FSD to properly evaluate my large TSLA position.

Here is how I see the math:

Sale price plus destination fee $61,400.

Trade in on Model Y ($28,800) = $32,600.

Tax credit if I can keep 2025 MAGI below $150,000 ($7500) = $25,100.

Sales Tax and registration $2600 - $27,700.

So I will be out of pocket $27,700 to get a nicer car that I do not drive all that much.

Since FSD costs $8000 I can rationalize it down to $19,700 since I would have to pay for FSD anyway.

Property tax and insurance will likely go up adding to the actual cost.

Pros:

Get a car more likely to keep longer. Save on FSD at current monthly price after 6.66 years (ominous number). Maybe save on FSD more if price goes up.

Get access to V13 and beyond which it looks like my current car will not get. Car drives pretty well as Audrey pointed out. But hands on evaluation helps with TSLA research,

Get smoother ride. Get quieter ride. Nice to have but I can tolerate the current car.

Can have any color. But I had liked Horizon Blue shown in China but not currently available here.

Can have a trailer hitch, but don't have a trailer. Maybe nice. Maybe not.

Speed boost. Don't need.

Front bumper camera.

Cons:

I don't drive that much although I use FSD all the time.

Blowing $20,000. Although I was looking for ways to spend more money and lose more than that on my portfolio several days per week.

I could buy a new boiler or remodel my bathroom. I probably will do the boiler anyway. I have some large trees near the house that could be cut down.

Alternative plan:

The current "Launch Version" forces you to buy all options. Fair for what you get if you want them.

If I gamble on the tax credit staying long enough and the FSD price not jumping it might make sense to hold off until the standard trim is offered.

If I can buy FSD after the main purchase and the price drops a little I might be able to get an extra $2500 state credit if the MSRP is less than $50,000.

Conclusion:

Maybe I wrote all of this as a way to organize my thoughts. The Tesla guy called within minutes of my doing the trade in estimate. I told him that if I were honest I would probably mull this around and put it off.

I suppose if the cyber cab takes off or the FSD price jumps my TSLA stock will probably go up more than enough to compensate.

And, gee, what am I thinking trading in a perfectly good car when I only drive 7000 miles a year.

Well thanks for listening and sorry for wasting electricity.

 

[Koolau]

I don't need to agree with your plans. It's your money and you should do with it what gives you the most happiness.

Keep us posted on your decisions. (I love the technology.).

 

[audreyh1]

Hey, what else are you going to spend it on? Just set your priorities.

Personally I’ll always be an FSD renter.

I really don’t think Tesla is going to stop making regular cars in the next few years but what do I know? They would essentially be handing over their considerable EV market share to other EV makers. They also invested in a considerable charging infrastructure that doesn’t work for driverless vehicles.

Fully autonomous robotaxis or ride sharing is going to be a very long transition. And what about those suburban and rural drivers? It simply doesn’t work for everything.

Isn’t this just a case of Musk making things sound imminent when they are still many years away?

We have over 24,000 miles on our Tesla in 2.5 years.

 

[joesxm3]

Being a super saver, it is hard to stomach blowing dough.

Good that it seems like there will be a car to drive me when I get to the point that I can't drive myself. Not to mention an Optimus home health aide and an AI Agent Conservator to supervise my care and manage my finances.

 

[2HOTinPHX]

I thought the $7500 tax credit was going away soon?

 

[joesxm3]

The executive order did not specifically cancel the EV tax credit. This might require action by Congress.

The EO attacked the mandate forcing the switch to EV or hybrid and criticised unfair subsidies which might refer to the tax credit. But it is currently active and if I take delivery in March or April probably still get it.

 

[aja8888]

I thought you could only use the tax credit every three years (on the fourth tax year?).

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

You can take the EV credit 2x per calendar year.

 

[aja8888]

You can take the EV credit 2x per calendar year.

Thanks!

From a search: "With the used EV tax credit, you can only claim it once every three years.Jun 24, 2024"

 

[audreyh1]

We don’t own TSLA stock. DH kept eying it years ago but he still had a boatload of AAPL from decades ago (what a run!) and I convinced him that our buying individual stocks days were over. It’s already well represented in our large holding of Total Market Index plus legacy fund HACAX. But of course you don’t notice individual stock moves.

So none of our decisions are based on TSLA stock although we do sometimes joke about AAPL stock when we buy the next toy. We’ve owned Apple products since the mid 80s.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Thanks!

From a search: "With the used EV tax credit, you can only claim it once every three years.Jun 24, 2024"

That's for used vehicles.

 

[aja8888]

That's for used vehicles.

Yes, that's what I had previously heard and was not aware it was for used vehicles.

 

[Midpack]

Same answer as the other thread. If I replace my MYLR, it won’t be until AI5 is standard, it’s already on the drawing board but that doesn’t mean its rollout is imminent. That also allows time to sort out early production bugs, and maybe stabilize prices. You may have other reasons or incentives to consider, so YMMV.

Elon Musk reveals Tesla's HW5 release date, and that it won't be called HW5

Elon Musk revealed new details regarding Tesla's next-generation self-driving computer, which many expected to be called Hardware 5 (HW5).

www.teslarati.com

 

[audreyh1]

^^ that was June 2024 before the cyber cab announcement event. So I imagine timelines have already shifted.

 

[fosterscik]

We've been considering a model Y for a year or so. It will probably be our next car when we finally decide our 2013 Ford Cmax is not fit for purpose. But we plan to lease when we do so. This thread and the OPs desire for the latest hardware only reinforces that view for me. It would be nice to know that we would update vehicles after a short time in this rapidly evolving space.

 

[joesxm3]

The Tesla sales guy told me that with my trade in I would just get a check back after the lease down payment and be able to switch to the new car with no out of pocket expense.

I guess the worry there might be if there is a huge FSD price spike like Elon had been predicting a couple years ago.

That said, though, I probably would be happy had I leased my car two years ago. At the time the lease was $700/mo. So assuming $4000 down I probably would have paid $21,000 for my first two years.

Ignoring sales tax, I paid about $53,000 - $7500 = $45,500 for my car. $49,500 with tax.

Assuming the $28,800 trade in, I would have paid $20,700 for two years of my car. Not that bad looking at it that way.

I don't drive that much but I still worry about getting taken advantage of at the end of the lease. But I suppose I should consider the lease option. The point about swapping cars like phones is a good one.

 

[marko]

I don't need to agree with your plans. It's your money and you should do with it what gives you the most happiness.

Keep us posted on your decisions. (I love the technology.).

Assuming one can afford it, so many people miss out on enjoying things because they made a financial decision on what should be an emotional one.

There are some things that don't make sense except on how it makes you feel. (50 years of big boat ownership taught me that! Probably spent close to a $Mil just on storage, upkeep and maintenance alone during my lifetime, with no regrets.)

"He knows the cost of everything but the value of nothing". O. Wilde.

Life's too short. BTD!

 

[Zathras]

We’ve owned Tesla’s since they started selling them.
Elon is a great engineer and even better marketer.

The new Model Y should be a great advance over the old one.
However, if FSD plays a big role in your decision, hold off.

In 2017, Elon told people FSD would make it’s first hands off drive from coast to coast with no disengagements ‘by the end of the year’.
This has been repeated almost every year.
Wonderful improvements have been made, FSD has come a long was. But IMO, robotaxi, as imagined, is no where near large scale adoption.

Wait till it is actually in use by people and available in all states you might travel to.

Just my 2 cents.

 

[RetMD21]

If you want it and can afford it why not.

 

[audreyh1]

I’ve been thinking about cyber cab a lot. Only a few people living in the US don’t need a car because they live in a dense urban area, public transportation is readily available, keeping a car is prohibitively expensive. Most live in suburban areas or more rural areas and it’s not feasible to not own a car, particularly for families with children. For families with children one or two cars are constantly used. Two seater cyber cab won’t cut it. I can’t imagine ordering up a robovan, getting the kids to school, running errands or going to a job, getting another robovan, picking up kids from school, taking them to after school activities, picking up food/shopping on the way home. Do it again the following day. There is a reason people in the US like to own their own cars, not to mention having their personal stuff in the car.

My main point is that the transition is not going to be fast, and prying their personal car out of people’s hands is going to be a huge uphill battle. People are going to have to have a nice, convenient and inexpensive alternative to give up their personal cars. That indicates a massive infrastructure is already in place in initial areas and then spreads. And they will still want to at least rent a personal car under some circumstances.

 

[joesxm3]

One possible scenario, not a cyber cab, but a self driving family vehicle.

Instead of being a two car family, the car could bring one parent to work and then come back to drive the other parent or the kids around during the day.

Not quite sure how it would know who the kids are or how the kids would know which car is theirs.

Maybe another big use case is self driving semi trucks. Elon said yesterday that the economics of running the truck make it a slam dunk over diesel. When you run them without a driver, the savings are massive.

Elon said this year that the constraint is not being able to get enough batteries.

As far as the straight up cyber cab. I would imagine that there is plenty of initial demand in the urban areas to replace taxi and uber drivers.

But I think you are right about people liking their own cars. While I would prefer to have my personal self driving cab, there is no way I would want to send it out to give rides to strangers.

And, oh, the red color is starting to appeal to me. Especially if it is more like maroon or wine red instead of fire truck red.

 

[DallasGuy]

Would never buy a Tesla...Elon has made is so!

 

[Tetto]

I’m not an EV fan, but drove my buddies new Rivian R1S SUV. Holy keeeerist! For a 9500lb vehicle, when I stomped the accelerator, it went from zero to ludicrous speed in an instant. Zero hesitation and 100% torque from zero rpm. Sweet car and cool as hell, but not a fan of 230 mile range in winter, and constantly on lookout for superchargers. The thing will tell you where they are as well. It’s a very nice vehicle, but the cost of that thing…olalalalalala

 

[Diogenes]

I’m not an EV fan, but drove my buddies new Rivian R1S SUV. Holy keeeerist! For a 9500lb vehicle, when I stomped the accelerator, it went from zero to ludicrous speed in an instant. Zero hesitation and 100% torque from zero rpm. Sweet car and cool as hell, but not a fan of 230 mile range in winter, and constantly on lookout for superchargers. The thing will tell you where they are as well. It’s a very nice vehicle, but the cost of that thing…olalalalalala

I'm an acceleration fan, being entirely agnostic about the method of attaining it. EVs offer tremendous acceleration, and that's already enough to embrace them. As for FSD... no thanks. I enjoy driving too much; yes, even in traffic. My main criticism of modern cars, electric or internal combustion, is that too much is automated. The driver is too isolated and insulated from the act of operating the machine. My dream car would have no power steering, for example.

FSD aside, EVs are evolving so rapidly, that the usual impetus for upgrading - newness, fashion, prestige - is overwhelmed just by the opportunity for higher performance. If the budget supports it, go ahead and treat yourself!

 

[audreyh1]

One possible scenario, not a cyber cab, but a self driving family vehicle.

Instead of being a two car family, the car could bring one parent to work and then come back to drive the other parent or the kids around during the day.

Not quite sure how it would know who the kids are or how the kids would know which car is theirs.

Maybe another big use case is self driving semi trucks. Elon said yesterday that the economics of running the truck make it a slam dunk over diesel. When you run them without a driver, the savings are massive.

Elon said this year that the constraint is not being able to get enough batteries.

As far as the straight up cyber cab. I would imagine that there is plenty of initial demand in the urban areas to replace taxi and uber drivers.

But I think you are right about people liking their own cars. While I would prefer to have my personal self driving cab, there is no way I would want to send it out to give rides to strangers.

And, oh, the red color is starting to appeal to me. Especially if it is more like maroon or wine red instead of fire truck red.

I was talking about the scenario where a family doesn’t own their own car. I can certainly see the scenario were a self driving family owned car drops off and picks up the adults as needed making it possible to have only one car. This is not the cyber cab model. People still buy and own their own cars for personal use.

The whole idea of sending your personal vehicle out to be used by other people when you’re not using it makes me a bit nauseous. I wouldn’t do it. Not to mention the maintenance, abuse, and insurance headaches. I really don’t think this would ever be widely adopted. On the fringe maybe, and more likely where someone has a small fleet as a business.

The Ultra-red is really a straight red, not really dark unless in low light. It’s a beautiful metallic rich red. No purplish tones though, so not maroon or wine. It’s not quite as bright as fire engine red. No orange tones either.