NPV differences in when SS is taken

My observation is that its a bell shaped curve. At one end are those who don't need it and just want extra fun money, and at the other end are those who are desperate and needed the cash yesterday.

Those in the middle want to position themselves in order to maximize their benefit.
 
My observation is that its a bell shaped curve. At one end are those who don't need it and just want extra fun money, and at the other end are those who are desperate and needed the cash yesterday.

Those in the middle want to position themselves in order to maximize their benefit.
Let me guess. You are in the middle, which is the only one that you make sound like a smart decision, with negative bias against the ends. :rolleyes:

Would you care to explain how the middle maximizes their benefit? It can, but you probably won't know that until you die. If delaying to age 70 gives me "extra fun money" over taking at other ages, isn't that the same as maximizing my benefit?

I agree most are in the middle, but the reasons I've observed are:
- Lined up with actual retirement date, traditionally age 65
- Waiting until done with ACA subsidies, the year after turning 65
- FRA, under the (questionable) notion that it must be best, otherwise why does it have that designation?
- Deferred SS until they needed the benefit, and that fell sometime before 70.
- Compromise between taking at 62 and taking at 70, getting some of the benefits of each (but also some of the shortfalls of each)

Not everyone taking at 62 are desperate. Plenty here do. Valid reasons I've seen are:
- Poor health or family history
- Believe they will likely get a good enough return on their money left invested that it will get them the best result at any age of death
- Concerned about future cut backs in benefits and want to get what they can before that happens
There are other (IMO) flawed reasons but I won't get into those.

I'm still planning to wait until age 70, because:
- Good health and family history
- Longevity insurance. If I die early I won't run have out of money. If I live longer I have more money each month to keep me living comfortably. If I don't need that, it's more money for gifting to heirs or charity, and yes, extra fun money.
- ACA subsidies made waiting until at least past 65 a no-brainer for me
- Years 65-70 will be used for very cheap Roth conversions and/or tIRA withdrawals

Just last week I did an analysis of how I'm going to fund my living expenses after I turn 65, which is the end of this year. Options are some combination of taking SS, using Roth, selling taxable equity funds (with large cap gains), and withdrawing from tIRA. I was prepared to start SS if that looked best, but most of it will be funded by zero or low tax rate tIRA withdrawals, and the rest from Roth or selling MFs.

I've ignored the spousal situations because they don't apply to me so I haven't studied them, but aren't they often putting one spouse on the early end and the other the late end, to maximize their benefits?
 
Let me guess. You are in the middle, which is the only one that you make sound like a smart decision, with negative bias against the ends. :rolleyes:

Would you care to explain how the middle maximizes their benefit? It can, but you probably won't know that until you die. If delaying to age 70 gives me "extra fun money" over taking at other ages, isn't that the same as maximizing my benefit?

I agree most are in the middle, but the reasons I've observed are:
- Lined up with actual retirement date, traditionally age 65
- Waiting until done with ACA subsidies, the year after turning 65
- FRA, under the (questionable) notion that it must be best, otherwise why does it have that designation?
- Deferred SS until they needed the benefit, and that fell sometime before 70.
- Compromise between taking at 62 and taking at 70, getting some of the benefits of each (but also some of the shortfalls of each)

Not everyone taking at 62 are desperate. Plenty here do. Valid reasons I've seen are:
- Poor health or family history
- Believe they will likely get a good enough return on their money left invested that it will get them the best result at any age of death
- Concerned about future cut backs in benefits and want to get what they can before that happens
There are other (IMO) flawed reasons but I won't get into those.

I'm still planning to wait until age 70, because:
- Good health and family history
- Longevity insurance. If I die early I won't run have out of money. If I live longer I have more money each month to keep me living comfortably. If I don't need that, it's more money for gifting to heirs or charity, and yes, extra fun money.
- ACA subsidies made waiting until at least past 65 a no-brainer for me
- Years 65-70 will be used for very cheap Roth conversions and/or tIRA withdrawals

Just last week I did an analysis of how I'm going to fund my living expenses after I turn 65, which is the end of this year. Options are some combination of taking SS, using Roth, selling taxable equity funds (with large cap gains), and withdrawing from tIRA. I was prepared to start SS if that looked best, but most of it will be funded by zero or low tax rate tIRA withdrawals, and the rest from Roth or selling MFs.

I've ignored the spousal situations because they don't apply to me so I haven't studied them, but aren't they often putting one spouse on the early end and the other the late end, to maximize their benefits?
Wrong guess. We are very, very far in the "don't need the money" camp. We took it at 62...

Pretty simple: $25k x2 of us extra a year. Why not. Free money and no need to optimize the benefit.

As noted, my post was only an observation.
 
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Yep. that was my key reason to wait until 70. DW will get my SS when I pass.
Not waiting due to health and other reasons. I think she (and the pool boy) will be fine if I go first/soon... ;)

Flieger
 
It is easy for us, spouse is 14 years older, I took mine at 62 and he took his at 70. We made about the same but I had only put 18 years into the system because I immigrated to the US in my late 30s when I was posted here. My PIA exceeds half of his PIA by a significant amount, so my benefits is on my own record.
 
The calculations can be very misleading. Because it can draw totally different conclusions, depending upon how you would like to choose the "Real Discount Rate". 4% is just an arbitrary number and doesn't mean it makes sense.

To me, every SS dollar you delay to take is a dollar you have to pull out from your IRA/401K, which historically can earn you 8%.

If you choose 8% as a real discount rate, claiming early always wins.

NPV Today (Age 63)

Live 63 Claim 67 Claim 70 Claim
To
----------------------------------------------
70 $117,000 $57,000 $0
80 $206,000 $164,000 $115,000
90 $256,000 $227,000 $213,000
95 $274,000 $245,000 $239,000
 
The calculations can be very misleading. Because it can draw totally different conclusions, depending upon how you would like to choose the "Real Discount Rate". 4% is just an arbitrary number and doesn't mean it makes sense.

To me, every SS dollar you delay to take is a dollar you have to pull out from your IRA/401K, which historically can earn you 8%.

If you choose 8% as a real discount rate, claiming early always wins.

NPV Today (Age 63)

Live 63 Claim 67 Claim 70 Claim
To
----------------------------------------------
70 $117,000 $57,000 $0
80 $206,000 $164,000 $115,000
90 $256,000 $227,000 $213,000
95 $274,000 $245,000 $239,000
While I also felt it was better earlier while earning on "un-pulled" funds, 8% real (after inflation?) is too much IMO.

Flieger
 
+1. Even if the funds being used since one is delaying SS is all stocks, the historical average is 7% (10% nominal less 3% inflation)... BUT if one is looking at the next 8 years the major brokerage houses are projecting 4-5% nominal less 3% inflation would be 1-2%. That feels low but there are a lot of headwinds IMO like a quagmire in the Iran War resulting in a worldwide recession, the potential of reversion to he mean for P/E ratios impacting future stock returns, etc.

So perhaps split the difference at 4-5% real return seems plausible to me. If the funds are a 60/40 blend then a little lower.
 
Average 8% real for 8 years... good luck with that.
It is not about 8 years. The "race" is over the course of the remaining life expectancy. Say, if the life expectancy is 85, the span is 22 years (85-63 = 22). Since 2000, the annual return of SPY is about 8% and QQQ is a little over 10%.

I understand many people are more conservative. In any way, whether claiming at 63 or 70 is a choice of betting. While no one can predict the future, the odds are against the later claiming, based on the historical market data.
 
That feels low but there are a lot of headwinds IMO like a quagmire in the Iran War resulting in a worldwide recession, the potential of reversion to he mean for P/E ratios impacting future stock returns, etc.

If the funds are a 60/40 blend then a little lower.

Unless we get into WW III, we should not worry about a worldwide recession. The market does not really depend up the economy or P/E ratios, rather it is fueled by the forever increasing national debt. That is why we had significant market growth in 2020, despite that we had COVID and no one travelled. Again we witnessed another market hike, in April in the middle of a war in the Middle East and Hormuz Strait being blocked.
 
...To me, every SS dollar you delay to take is a dollar you have to pull out from your IRA/401K, which historically can earn you 8%...
Well, some folks have $$$ in their taxable and Roth accounts in their early 60s, but in my case, not so much back then.

So yes, one of my goals when I retired at 63 was to pull $$ from my tax-deferred 403(b) for a combination of spending and Roth conversions, partly to reduce RMDs later on.
So I did that for seven years, and to a much lesser degree since.

But my investments are mostly in stock funds in all accounts so I think my annual gains are better than 8% since 2013.
And my tax-deferred $$$ nowadays is higher than it was in 2013, nominally.

It all works out one way or another...
 
Suppose you have a younger spouse who intends to keep working and is highly compensated, and you file jointly.

Does it make sense to take your own SS earlier, so your monthly income is lower in regards to factoring IRMAA?

I know there are always many factors, but I wonder about the logic in this particular part of the equation.
 
Suppose you have a younger spouse who intends to keep working and is highly compensated, and you file jointly.

Does it make sense to take your own SS earlier, so your monthly income is lower in regards to factoring IRMAA?

I know there are always many factors, but I wonder about the logic in this particular part of the equation.
As regards IRMAA, I think it makes since to manage your finances, when possible, to stay in the same IRMAA tier every year, no big fluctuations due to improperly computed Roth conversions or property sales.

That being said, my personal preference would be to be in the highest IRMAA tier forever, meaning AGI over $500k per year, filing single.
But sadly, that's not gonna happen for me...
😟
 
As regards IRMAA, I think it makes since to manage your finances, when possible, to stay in the same IRMAA tier every year, no big fluctuations due to improperly computed Roth conversions or property sales.

That being said, my personal preference would be to be in the highest IRMAA tier forever, meaning AGI over $500k per year, filing single.
But sadly, that's not gonna happen for me...
😟
Even with an income in the upper six figures, flying private in a rent-a-jet (see separate thread) likely wouldn't be feasible.
But flying business class everywhere certainly would, so there's that to aspire to...
 
Well, some folks have $$$ in their taxable and Roth accounts in their early 60s, but in my case, not so much back then.

So yes, one of my goals when I retired at 63 was to pull $$ from my tax-deferred 403(b) for a combination of spending and Roth conversions, partly to reduce RMDs later on.
So I did that for seven years, and to a much lesser degree since.

But my investments are mostly in stock funds in all accounts so I think my annual gains are better than 8% since 2013.
And my tax-deferred $$$ nowadays is higher than it was in 2013, nominally.

It all works out one way or another...
I agree. The difference is not much, but it is more of a psychological take. Many financial "experts" show us how to save tax dollars with "optimal" retirement plan. But, what difference would be if one leaves $1 M vs $1.5 M (due to tax saving) when he leaves the world? Zero. His children don't really care because it is just inheritance and they didn't earn it.
 
I agree. The difference is not much, but it is more of a psychological take. Many financial "experts" show us how to save tax dollars with "optimal" retirement plan. But, what difference would be if one leaves $1 M vs $1.5 M (due to tax saving) when he leaves the world? Zero. His children don't really care because it is just inheritance and they didn't earn it.
When it comes to retirement financial planning, I think that there is a broad "optimal" range.
This means that so long as you develop and execute a plan reasonably well, your end result is still within 5-10% of the best plan.
Much of this is due to financial markets which are not easy to predict...
 
To me, it made no sense to take SS early when I don't the funds, longevity is in the family, I have a spouse that has a smaller SS base, and that ramped-up inflation factor is inclusive from that 70 yo point and on.
 
To me, it made no sense to take SS early when I don't the funds, longevity is in the family, I have a spouse that has a smaller SS base, and that ramped-up inflation factor is inclusive from that 70 yo point and on.
Inflation is a scare tactic. If you own stocks, you should not worry about the inflation at all. When inflation is high, housing prices and company values get higher, so will your stock values.

No one can predict the future. To make a later SS claim, someone is simply betting on a lower future stock return while an earlier claimer is betting on a higher stock return. Based on the historical data from last 20-30 years, we know the stock return has been generally higher than the inflation rate.
 

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The first word in "personal finance" is personal - everyone will make the choice that is right for them. My wife and I both have about the same benefit amount coming in and my Father died at 70, my mother at 80, my older brother at 60. I'll be taking it at 62 - if I make it 😳
 
The first word in "personal finance" is personal - everyone will make the choice that is right for them. My wife and I both have about the same benefit amount coming in and my Father died at 70, my mother at 80, my older brother at 60. I'll be taking it at 62 - if I make it 😳
There were SEVERAL in my HS class of 125 grads that did not make it to age 62. 😟
So that's definitely not a given...
 
Saved portfolio withdrawals and made lots of extra money (expanded the breakeven to about 87)
If you don't need it and invest it, or replace your portfolio withdrawals @ 6% growth...
start at 63 67 70 and live to
70- $197660 $101561 $0
75- $395363 $310472 $220602
80- $659936 $590042 $511670
85- $1013993 $964170 $901185
90- $1487802 $1462837 $1442444
95- $2121865 $2134842 $2120005
100 $2964036 $3031461 $3053499
 
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