Numbers

[imoldernu]

A few numbers from the US Debt Stats. For general interest.

US numbers M = Million T= Trillion

Population 325M

Retirees 51M
Total work Force 155M
1 oz gold 1913 $28.91 2017 $7,316.00
Medicare enrollees 56M
Medicaid recipients 74M
Prison inmates 1.9M
Armed forces 56M
US veterans 21M

DEBT
National 19.9T Public
TTL US Debt 69T. (Gross incl. public.)
TTL Debt Per citizen $211,592.00
TTL Debt Per Family $829,235.00
Savings/family $9,550.00
Personal debt/citizen $56,286.00
Student loan debt $1.44T
Credit card debt $1T

Median income $30,214.00 (in 2000, was $29,068.00)
New home Median price $309,972.00 (in 2000 was $163,670.00)

Public School Students 50.2M
Charter School students 3.9M

 

[Car-Guy]

An oz of gold is $7,316.00 in 2017? Some of the other numbers look odd too. e.g. Armed Forces at 56m?

 

[euro]

An oz of gold is $7,316.00 in 2017?

I just looked into that - it's more in the $1250 range

 

[ownyourfuture]

Other than the gold price you showed, the numbers look right & they're very ominous.

 

[Nemo2]

I just looked into that - it's more in the $1250 range

I think the highest it's been is ~ $1,900.

 

[Car-Guy]

I think the highest it's been is ~ $1,900.

That was pretty close as I recall back in ~2011, and please don't ask me how I know that.

 

[imoldernu]

Well, that gets the ball rolling... The numbers ARE from the US DEbt website, but to see how the numbers equate, you put the cursor on the box you're interested in, to see how the numbers are calculated. The one that surprised me was the Total US Debt... of $69 Trillion. Some of the numbers are inflation adjusted where it makes sense to do so.

U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time

And... the gold... my fault.. it is the dollar to gold ratio.see the chart for the calculation.

 

[TJFogelberg]

Yes, there is too much debt out there. Best advice for anyone wanting to retire early is to do so debt free. Live below your means and still have plenty of fun, without the risk or stress of financial ruin. OP has a lot of good info out here on how to do this! I won't be picking up old appliances curbside but I like many of the other ideas on how to stay debt free in retirement. Practical implications for the average retiree would be things like zero increase in SS, higher medicare premiums, low interest rates on savings etc.

 

[Whisper66]

The one that surprised me was the Total US Debt... of $69 Trillion.....

If you really want to get depressed, consider Lawrence Kotlikoff's view on the debt. The way he looks at it, our real debt ~ 200 trillion. His candadicy for the president last year was trying to highlight to the country how bad things were getting. Didn't make a noticeable impact on either of the major party's thinking that I could tell.

https://kotlikoff2016.com/bankrupting-our-children/
Who Is Larry Kotlikoff and Why Is He Running for President? | Money

 

[exnavynuke]

Well, that gets the ball rolling... The numbers ARE from the US DEbt website, but to see how the numbers equate, you put the cursor on the box you're interested in, to see how the numbers are calculated. The one that surprised me was the Total US Debt... of $69 Trillion. Some of the numbers are inflation adjusted where it makes sense to do so.

U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time

And... the gold... my fault.. it is the dollar to gold ratio.see the chart for the calculation.

The problem with "total US Debt" in this context is it ignores "total US assets". A debt figure out of context (i.e. in relation to assets) is meaningless. I have $123k in debt. For a single individual that *could sound like a lot. When you take into account that my assets could cover that debt multiple times over, however, it doesn't look so ominous. That's only one way of putting "total debt" into perspective though.

 

[Texas Proud]

Well, the armed forces is 1,322,000. not 56M....

 

[Texas Proud]

Now the interesting ratio is...

Total number receiving benefits.... 164M rounded...

Total populations... 325M rounded...


OR, 49.5 of people who receive benefits from the government....

And we wonder how we got to a 19T debt

 

[Luck_Club]

The problem with "total US Debt" in this context is it ignores "total US assets". A debt figure out of context (i.e. in relation to assets) is meaningless. I have $123k in debt. For a single individual that *could sound like a lot. When you take into account that my assets could cover that debt multiple times over, however, it doesn't look so ominous. That's only one way of putting "total debt" into perspective though.

Good way of looking at things.

 

[cooch96]

56M defense personnel? Maybe if you include every veteran and every firefighting ladder, police precinct, EMS, mall cop, and I don't know what else. I don't think there's 56M troops worldwide.

 

[Blue Collar Guy]

56M defense personnel? Maybe if you include every veteran and every firefighting ladder, police precinct, EMS, mall cop, and I don't know what else. I don't think there's 56M troops worldwide.

hahaha,

 

[clobber]

hahaha,

One of my parents was a college math teacher who frequently asked students to compute the length of a basketball court. The actual width and area of the court provided were correct. The number of people who turned in length calculations of 5000+ feet was incredible. Over a MILE long!

56 million in the Armed Forces? Umm..no. That would be 20% of the population.In other words, a mile long basketball court.

And yes, sorry to say this was college math

 

[imoldernu]

Re: 56 million Armed Forces... Ummm... guess I enlisted all of the medicare enrollees into the Services...

Think that may have been part of the plan to build up the military, currently at 1.3M

Anyway, isn't it interesting to see how many veterans there are compared to those on active duty...

Sheesh... Just since yesterday, think we may have added another T to the debt>

 

[Koolau]

I've been aware of Kotlikoff for quite some time. His book (with Scott Burns) THE COMING GENERATIONAL STORM covers some of the same material (from a mid-2000's perspective.) One of the few good things about about being 70 is that it's just possible I won't live to see the results of the mess we are in (and most don't know about, care about, etc.)

The biggest problem with big problems (such as huge national debt) is that they are rarely resolved in a rational, step-by-step process. The biggest problems are kicked (like a can) down the road. Eventually like a decaying steel bridge, they are "resolved" with great loss and chaos.

We could discuss the reasons for how we got here and why we haven't addressed this particular issue, but Porky would not be far behind, I fear.

Kotlikoff did offer some advice for those who agree that this will eventually end badly. It might be worth a read if you can find a copy. YMMV

 

[Ted_Shepherd]

Thanks for your post, exnavynuke. For more data, putting debt into context and supporting your points, here's a source: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-05-18/oh-no-not-another-debt-crisis