ah...memories of odd/even days in the 1970s in gas lines just north of NYC just fired in my brain. at least i got to ride in my mom's 1969 Mustang.
did anyone else do the odd/even day (license plate) thing back then or was it just limited to large cities?
did anyone else do the odd/even day (license plate) thing back then or was it just limited to large cities?
I agree that we're in a long-term uptrend given a finite resource, increasing demand and increasing population. But at the same time, fundamentals come nowhere near justifying $105 oil. I don't even think they justify $75 oil.I do believe there is a commodities bubble forming. I also believe oil is a bit different.
As oil is a finite resource and I believe we either have reached, or will reach (within 2 years) a point where the world can't produce any more oil any faster than it already is. Add to that the ever increasing demand from developing nations and I don't see any crash in oil prices.
Sure, the prices may go down 10% to 15% in the short term. But year over year I suspect we will continue to go up until we get a widespread alternative to oil.
Indeed, it's the last 10% of marginal demand that probably results in 50% of oil's market price, which is based on the "final barrel." If that 10% of demand vanished, prices would fall off of a cliff.Yesterday I heard an OPEC report on the tube that stated they are keeping supplies low because they want to enjoy the 60+trillion profit made last year off oil.
The sheiks are certain that the bust in the US will severely diminish their profit this year, as the result could decrease barrel prices as much as 70% in the coming years.
I think a bust of 70% is overstating it, but a popped bubble dropping 30-50% is certainly foreseeable. Still, the long term trend is inevitably up.
I do believe there is a commodities bubble forming. I also believe oil is a bit different.
As oil is a finite resource and I believe we either have reached, or will reach (within 2 years) a point where the world can't produce any more oil any faster than it already is. Add to that the ever increasing demand from developing nations and I don't see any crash in oil prices.
Sure, the prices may go down 10% to 15% in the short term. But year over year I suspect we will continue to go up until we get a widespread alternative to oil.
Maybe, maybe not. A lot of people never thought we could go to the moon or split the atom.You (and many others) are assuming there is one; just waiting to be revealed/discovered by Yankee ingenuity/unfettered capitalism/Science/...
I don't think so.
You (and many others) are assuming there is one; just waiting to be revealed/discovered by Yankee ingenuity/unfettered capitalism/Science/...
I don't think so.
Maybe, maybe not. A lot of people never thought we could go to the moon or split the atom.
And many of the technologies we enjoy today would have been dismissed as a pure fantasy 100 years ago. Never say never.
You (and many others) are assuming there is one; just waiting to be revealed/discovered by Yankee ingenuity/unfettered capitalism/Science/...
I don't think so.
Right. I don't see any one thing "replacing oil" in my lifetime. I do, however, see several technologies each forming a partial replacement.The technologies already exists. It is a matter of the technologies ramping up to replace oil that is the question, not if the technology exists.
Some areas are also easier to replace oil in than others. For example, passenger vehicles can run on electricity. However, long distance travel is not possible with todays battery technology. So batteries and oil each have their role to play with today's technology.
who knows
i was watching Fast MOney on CNBC last night and they said in the 1970's oil went up lik 1800%. so far it's up only 300% in this decade. so if we are going to be in stagflation like all the talking heads are saying than we have a lot more for oil to go up