Have you decided on your desired asset allocation between stocks and fixed-income investments? I recommend starting there, and also recommend using FIRECalc to help you make that decision.
Decide how much you want to be able to spend each year in retirement. Include in that figure the taxes you expect to have to pay in retirement, FIRECalc won’t do that for you.
Decide how long you want to be able to live without running out of money. Don’t just find out your life expectancy, also investigate your odds of living to different ages. You might want to choose an older age than the one you have a 50% chance of exceeding.
Then take those two numbers and what you know about your preretirement finances and use FIRECalc to investigate the performance of different asset allocations. FIRECalc has an option to output a graph showing how your odds of success vary with asset allocation (0% to 100% stocks).
If you play around with FIRECalc enough, you will discover that the smaller your nest egg is in comparison to your needs (withdrawal rate and length of retirement), the more heavily weighted towards stocks your optimal portfolio will be.
FIRECalc is entirely based on history, and there is of course absolutely no guarantee that the future will behave the same way as the past, but I think there is a lot of value (and enforced honesty) in knowing how well your portfolio would have performed in the known historical past.
Once you get that set, then some tax-oriented recommendations include keeping your most aggessive stock investments in your Roth IRA and possibly in your HSA (where the returns will never be taxed), keeping fixed-income investments in your tax-deferred accounts (where the eventual withdrawals will be taxed as ordinary income), and preferably stocks in your taxable accounts to the extent possible. Your portfolio does have a lot of taxable in it, which is not ideal but there may not be much you can do.
I along with a lot of others here have a strong preference for low-cost index funds. We believe there is really no value added in active management, so low costs and fees are the way to go. Also staid conservative diversified funds beat out fashionable exciting sexy investments every time.
Thanks for the info! I've decided to shoot for 80/20 and have sold all of the target date and miscellaneous funds. Everything is in brokerage accounts with auto investments set to deplete the brokerage accounts over the next three months.
FIRECalc has been a wonderful tool and provides great information on how current decisions will affect the outcome of my portfolio. Even with a conservative scenario of 5% growth I'm getting an 80-85% success rate. So there is hope for ER!
As for tax orientation of the portfolio, I'm very naive in that area and have a hard time wrapping my head around how the different tax strategies will work in early retirement. I will continue to explore and read as much as I can in hopes of minimizing costly mistakes.