Philosophical question regarding Asset Mix approaching "fat fire"

I think everyone facing retirement should read:
ERN SWR

It covers so much good information including AA. There is a table that shows SWR vs years of retirement vs AA. I chose the sweet spot of AA for the number of years and our SWR. It turned out to be 75/25 for us. We are probably considered Fat FIRE or at least chubby FIRE.
 
We too have won the game,

Our AA has gone up from the long held 60/40 to the present 80/20 due to -

1) Roth conversions which are all equities from the all Bond IRAs

2) Brokerage is all equities as I do not want to hold Bonds in Taxable due to taxes, along with 2 years of expenses in cash.

Having 80% in equities during retirement took some adjustment, but it grew on us.

I guess our children & charities will benefit eventually from 80% equities, as at this point I am investing for them, & a 50% drop in market we should still will be OK.
 
As we approached ER, I geared down the equity, not because of absolute financial risk but to prevent behavioral errors. Knowing that the first ten years were without my pension and SS, I wanted to make sure that I didn't worry about money OR reduce spending -- that is, I wanted to avoid getting rattled even though the pile was large.

Now, with SS and Pension underway, I'm letting equity rise naturally. I will no longer rebalance on the upside.
 
I need to figure out where I will leave my estate beyond likely giving too much to kids. Regardless, I will keep equities at 75% or higher. The other 25% is more than plenty to ride any tough times. I worked hard for my money and it will keep working for me.
 
... So, to answer OP's question, I'll add a 4th option: Our primary concerns are simplifying our assets for ease of management and estate planning. All other considerations are secondary.
Yep! If time is an asset then we need to distinguish between FAA (financial asset allocation) and TAA (time asset allocation). I don't pay much attention to FAA these days but TAA is much on my mind because ongoing family cr*p means that I don't have the freedom to determine my own TAA. I am working steadily to change this but sometimes unwinding complexity that's built up over generations ain't easy. :confused:
 
Interested to hear some thoughts on asset mix for those approaching, or in retirement. I realize there is no "right answer" but want to hear some perspectives. Also, I realize that "fat fire" is a relative term so I'll frame it in terms of x times expenses.

If you are in a position where you have >60x base expenses or >40x expenses with healthy travel, discretionary spend & charitable giving, do you:
  1. Adjust portfolio mix to become more conservative? (you've won the game)
  2. Keep doing what you've done to get here? (why change now)
  3. Adjust portfolio to become even more aggressive (ability to get that 2nd home or expand travel budget, & make a bigger pile to give to heirs or charity)
Thanks for a healthy discussion for those who have "won the game" or close to it.
This totally comes down to personality and preferences. Also long term goals such as how important heirs are.

Over 10+ years we drifted down from a 60/40 AA to a 50/50 AA and have been there for a long time. Comfortable to us. In the meantime our portfolio grew significantly. We can fund plenty of travel. Gifting more. No children but gift to family and like to do what we can while alive. Don’t care much about growing what’s leftover at the end. Still comfortable with middle of the road 50/50. Who knows, 10 years from now we may become more conservative. I doubt we will get more aggressive. We are focused more on spending over the next few years, not on what we might be able to spend when we are much older and perhaps less able to take advantage of it.
 
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As noted above, any of the three is a viable option if you're "fat FIRE" - depends on your risk tolerance and financial legacy goals. We're at least 60x, so we could be more conservative but I'd like to grow the portfolio some to benefit family and charities. I sleep like a baby every night no matter what the market is doing - that’s what the OP needs to ask him/herself. I was 100% individual stocks until around 2000, and you can see the progression since from about 80/20 to about 50/50.View attachment 52279
Curious about what made you move to such a large cash position in 2019. Was that around when you relocated to NC?
 
Have you "won the game?" If so, have you thought of moving some investments to fixed as you age? I would personally always want at least some fixed to weather any financial "storms" though YMMV.
I believe I've won the game since our dividends comfortably cover our spending needs, so we don't need to sell any investments. That said, I agree with the idea of having at least some cash for stability, especially as I get older.
 
I believe I've won the game since our dividends comfortably cover our spending needs, so we don't need to sell any investments. That said, I agree with the idea of having at least some cash for stability, especially as I get older.
With sincere respect.... I've arrived at opposite conclusion, from evidently similar results. Dividends from equity index funds in my taxable portfolio have grown to be... of a certain size. That generates a tax bill. The tax bill remained after I lost my job and backed into Barista Fire. Even if I moved to Smellyditchistan and became a goat herder, living in a thatched hut and washing my laundry in the local creek, that tax bill would follow.

My enduring goal was to never withdraw from my portfolio. I've thought of it as Roach Motel: money can check-in, but it can never check-out! As a full-time employee I could do this, by paying quarterly estimated taxes stemming from the portfolio-dividends, out of my W2 salary. So, I'd earn $X as a worker, and pay $0.3X or whatever on the salary... but then another $0.3X (made up number - don't have the details) to cover taxes on the portfolio dividends.

My salary didn't grow much in recent years, but the portfolio followed the market, more or less (international equity index held it back!). Thus my tax bill grew, and my net pay from the W2 shrank. As a semi-retiree with a part time job, I can cover my living expenses while leaving the portfolio untouched (hence the "barista")... except for the taxes on the dividend distributions. The portfolio becomes an unaffordable penalty, as it were. And if I moved from a HCOL to a LCOL locale, OK, rent etc. is cheaper. But the taxes don't much change. Hence the major expense doesn't change. It's a sordid bind, that I never anticipated as recently as 10 or 15 years ago.
 
I'm more Fat SIRE than FIRE, meaning retirement income from pension/annuities+ SS more than covers my expenses most months.
So rather than withdraw funds from my portfolio, I add a few thousand dollars to it most months.

And I'm around 95% in equity funds, 5% in MM settlement fund. This allows me to buy more when prices decline and to TLH more efficiently.

I think part of the reason I'm high in equities is to make up for some of the $$$ in my 403(b) that I "pensionized" back in 2013, rather than keep it all in my portfolio and manage it that way.

Note that 403(b) funds are tax-deferred, so taxable as Ordinary Income no matter how it is withdrawn.
So arguments about taxable accounts and Qualified Dividends taxed at preferential rates aren't relevant here.

Anyhow, things are going well these past few years since I upped my allocation to stock funds...
 
Last week Bill Bernstein put up an article at Advisor Perspectives about market declines but the interesting part for me was his discussion of liability matched portfolios and what to do when you have "won the game."

He favors TIPS and possibly SPIAs sufficient to cover lifetime basic living expenses after allowing for social security and any pensions. The remainder can go into a risk portfolio of stocks/stock funds.

I think it is an interesting read

 
Last week Bill Bernstein put up an article at Advisor Perspectives about market declines but the interesting part for me was his discussion of liability matched portfolios and what to do when you have "won the game."

He favors TIPS and possibly SPIAs sufficient to cover lifetime basic living expenses after allowing for social security and any pensions. The remainder can go into a risk portfolio of stocks/stock funds.

I think it is an interesting read

I knew Bernstein had moved to advising close to this approach a couple of years after the 2008 crash because so many of his clients had panicked and gotten out near the bottom, and then didn’t get back in. Really a tragedy as he saw it. It’s yet another approach and a far cry from his pre-2008 one. My investment plan fortunately helped me get through the debacle without panicking. People often use advisors because they feel the need for some level of handholding. Unfortunately it doesn’t always keep them from making huge mistakes.
 
Bill Bernstein has always been a LMP proponent.
That's fine; I've chatted with him briefly at a few BH conferences.
I don't quite agree with his approach but that's because I've got lots of somewhat secure retirement income coming in.
YMMV, as you might expect...
 
...

I'm a money-driven person. Money is a scorecard. The aim isn't merely to "win the game", but to run up the score. I won't invest in flagrantly speculative things, but in the tension between equity index funds, bonds and cash, I'm resolutely on Team Equity.

I take a somewhat moderated view along your lines. While not specifically "money-driven", our lives have been blessed by an increasing standard of living for the last 40 years. So my bent is to keep dancing with the one that brung ya. We made our nut by LBYM while chucking tons of money (too much maybe) into tax deferred IRA and 401(k). But we've been able to buy successively bigger/nicer houses (from a $6,000 trailer/mobile home in 1984 to a 5,000 SF McMansion plus a summer house), to take fancier vacations, to pay for better colleges for the kids, etc.

And so we've done great, but many/most people increase their standard of living between the time they get out of school and when they retire. IMO, retirement doesn't mean that needs to stop. Assuming you really have enough to ER, I'm in the 60/40 to 80/20 camp. In that range, the fixed income portion can carry you through stock market downturns by simply following rebalancing rules, while the equity portion suggests that you will continue to increase your standard of living. Going below 50% equities is considered "safe" but almost guarantees that you won't increase your standard of living.

This is coming from an early retirement perspective rather than the 65+ retirement crowd.
 
I'd feel absolutely awful, but what's to be done? Suppose that I had a 50/50 allocation, so that a 50% drop in stocks (assuming that bonds held up) meant only a 25% cumulative drop. Would I feel any less bad? No, absolutely not! What is decidedly bad, is to be losing more than others, or gaining less than others. This is what's happened with any allocation to ex-US stocks. While the S&P 500 has done fantastically well, international or ex-US stocks have not. I feel downright awful about having diversified, or if you like, "diworsified", into international stocks.

Put another way, if all markets everywhere have fallen 50%, then with misery loving company, or strength in misery, or whatever - pick your nostrum - one feels less-bad. Them's the breaks, life is tough, etc. Dust-off and move on.. But suppose that "the market" has only fallen 10%, whereas my holdings are down 20%. Now that would be horrendous indeed!

I am curious as to why you would care how your portfolio performs vs. others whether up or down? At the end of the day, does it really matter how others do as long as your portfolio can support your FIRE lifestyle? It's not a criticism; I am just curious as to why you would feel that way.
 
I knew Bernstein had moved to advising close to this approach a couple of years after the 2008 crash because so many of his clients had panicked and gotten out near the bottom, and then didn’t get back in. Really a tragedy as he saw it. It’s yet another approach and a far cry from his pre-2008 one. My investment plan fortunately helped me get through the debacle without panicking. People often use advisors because they feel the need for some level of handholding. Unfortunately it doesn’t always keep them from making huge mistakes.

I can see that the hand holding would help some folks but the advisor can't keep you from selling at the bottom.

Bill Bernstein has always been a LMP proponent.
That's fine; I've chatted with him briefly at a few BH conferences.
I don't quite agree with his approach but that's because I've got lots of somewhat secure retirement income coming in.
YMMV, as you might expect...

IIRC from a previous thread, you have about a 0% withdrawal rate from your portfolio.In that case I don't think Bill would be insisting on SPIA or a TIPS ladder, lol

To my way of thinking a high allocation to stocks with a low withdrawal rate is a more conservative plan than taking 4% withdrawals from a more bond heavy portfolio
 
I'm in the #2 camp and #3 camp. I also haven't spent any of my investments other than MM or a savings account.
 
We met with our estate planning attorney two weeks ago to discuss potential actions based on the various political scenarios that could play out. He discussed various trusts that could be put into place that could help or hurt us depending on which direction the wind blows. He said the simplest option is to give away more money to family and charity and not to lock things up in a trust hoping to avoid estate taxes.
We’ve been doing that already for a few years, so we’re going to keep doing the same thing.
We’re not changing our asset allocations either because they’re set up to provide us dividend income so we don’t have to sell shares during a down market. We also keep several years cash in CDs/MM/Treasuries if we need them. We’re about 75/25 plus real estate that is fully paid off. DW begins SS in two years at age 70 that will bring our cash flow up to -$320,000/year doing nothing.
 
I am curious as to why you would care how your portfolio performs vs. others whether up or down? At the end of the day, does it really matter how others do as long as your portfolio can support your FIRE lifestyle? It's not a criticism; I am just curious as to why you would feel that way.
Money is a claim on other people's labor or resources. It's all relative. If everyone's a millionaire, then no one is. If everyone is rendered destitute, save for one person who is merely moderately impoverished, then that "poor" person is in relative terms wealthy.

It's true that extraordinary outlier cases don't affect us. Whether Elon Musk has $200B or $100B, doesn't matter. But the number of mere millionaires in America, or deca-millionaires, does matter. It affects for example the price of luxury goods, such as houses in west Los Angeles.

Meanwhile, I've found that my lifestyle is only weakly affected by money. No, this isn't some quasi-religious or Stoic paean to immaterialism, or that "the best things in life are free". I mean, that may very well be true. But the point here, is a narrowly practical and material one. Let me give an example. Currently I'm living in a VHCOL area, which overall I like, but don't like enough to buy a house here and to retire and die here. Eventually I'll move. When? That depends on whether and when, I might re-enter the workforce (sorry for uttering that obscenity here!). Also depends on what happens to my "barista" job while in FIRE. The barista job is part-time adjunct teaching at a local U. Suppose that my number of hours increases. Or falls. Or I get a tenured faculty job. Or not. All of that, greatly affects whether I buy a house, and where, and when. The actual price of houses, or interest rates, matters too... but considerably less. My lifestyle, as far as buying a house, is crimped less by a withering parsimony and "hoarding", than by uncertainty with what's left of my career... which would have been the case, were I to have had hundreds of millions of dollars, or a big honking zero.
 
Hoarder! :) Seriously though, dd you save this money for your retirement or to hoard for the rest of time? Is not touching it at all or just not touching "principal"?
Guilty as charged... except that hoarders, while unable to let-go, generally don't think of their possessions as testaments to their worth. Or maybe they do? Is there a Hoarders Forum, that one could join?

I don't distinguish between principal and interest or gains. The IRS cares, but I don't care. Any "gain" is immediately rebaselined as the full running amount. If my stock in Acme Widgets triples, then I don't look at the gains as extra, or something to spend, or some nice but peripheral bonus, whereas my original stake in Acme was somehow core. They're all fungible and indistinguishable.

As FIRE people, we spend our lives, or at least our adult lives, accumulating. We add to our portfolios. We save a little, or we save a lot. We invest aggressively, or conservatively. We time the market, or we do not. We diversify, or we concentrate... or anything in between. Yes? But the universal and underlying thing, is that we shepherd and husband our portfolios to grow. Or at least after the latest bear-market is over, they grow. Well then, are we supposed to one fine day, reverse the switch, from "grow" to "shrink"? Do we anti-save, taking from the portfolio, where earlier we always added to it? Huh? I can't wrap my head around that. I can't fathom, why we'd have saved-saved-saved, only to subsequently un-save. If I were going to spend anyway, why did I save in the first place? Why didn't I just spend, as I went along... especially when I was younger, more vigorous, more keen on travel or costly hobbies or just impressing you-know-who with bling?

No, by my reckoning, savings are a one-way street. We save, period. We don't spend - not unless tragedy or dire need overcomes us.
 
Guilty as charged... except that hoarders, while unable to let-go, generally don't think of their possessions as testaments to their worth. Or maybe they do? Is there a Hoarders Forum, that one could join?

I don't distinguish between principal and interest or gains. The IRS cares, but I don't care. Any "gain" is immediately rebaselined as the full running amount. If my stock in Acme Widgets triples, then I don't look at the gains as extra, or something to spend, or some nice but peripheral bonus, whereas my original stake in Acme was somehow core. They're all fungible and indistinguishable.

As FIRE people, we spend our lives, or at least our adult lives, accumulating. We add to our portfolios. We save a little, or we save a lot. We invest aggressively, or conservatively. We time the market, or we do not. We diversify, or we concentrate... or anything in between. Yes? But the universal and underlying thing, is that we shepherd and husband our portfolios to grow. Or at least after the latest bear-market is over, they grow. Well then, are we supposed to one fine day, reverse the switch, from "grow" to "shrink"? Do we anti-save, taking from the portfolio, where earlier we always added to it? Huh? I can't wrap my head around that. I can't fathom, why we'd have saved-saved-saved, only to subsequently un-save. If I were going to spend anyway, why did I save in the first place? Why didn't I just spend, as I went along... especially when I was younger, more vigorous, more keen on travel or costly hobbies or just impressing you-know-who with bling?

No, by my reckoning, savings are a one-way street. We save, period. We don't spend - not unless tragedy or dire need overcomes us.
Maybe miser is a more appropriate description. :)
 
Money is a claim on other people's labor or resources. It's all relative. If everyone's a millionaire, then no one is. If everyone is rendered destitute, save for one person who is merely moderately impoverished, then that "poor" person is in relative terms wealthy.

It's true that extraordinary outlier cases don't affect us. Whether Elon Musk has $200B or $100B, doesn't matter. But the number of mere millionaires in America, or deca-millionaires, does matter. It affects for example the price of luxury goods, such as houses in west Los Angeles.

Meanwhile, I've found that my lifestyle is only weakly affected by money. No, this isn't some quasi-religious or Stoic paean to immaterialism, or that "the best things in life are free". I mean, that may very well be true. But the point here, is a narrowly practical and material one. Let me give an example. Currently I'm living in a VHCOL area, which overall I like, but don't like enough to buy a house here and to retire and die here. Eventually I'll move. When? That depends on whether and when, I might re-enter the workforce (sorry for uttering that obscenity here!). Also depends on what happens to my "barista" job while in FIRE. The barista job is part-time adjunct teaching at a local U. Suppose that my number of hours increases. Or falls. Or I get a tenured faculty job. Or not. All of that, greatly affects whether I buy a house, and where, and when. The actual price of houses, or interest rates, matters too... but considerably less. My lifestyle, as far as buying a house, is crimped less by a withering parsimony and "hoarding", than by uncertainty with what's left of my career... which would have been the case, were I to have had hundreds of millions of dollars, or a big honking zero.

I would argue that the number of millionaires or deca-millionaires doesn't affect us individually on a daily basis. For example, not every rich person is interested in the same luxury goods or houses on the west side of LA. Not all of them live in LA or SF or NYC. This is especially true if you practice geo-arbitrage and move to a place with lower cost of living.

I used to play this game also, keeping scores vs. my peers at work or friends, wanting to do better or at least keep up. Heck, I even found myself measuring against the group of FIRE folks on this board. It's human nature to want to be competitive. That's what drives us. But no matter how much we accumulate, there's always someone who has more than us. It's a game we can never win.

But now there's only one score I care about---how much free time I have left on the face of the earth to enjoy and do things that I want to do. That's why I stopped tracking my NW a couple of years ago. Once I know rationally that I have enough, it doesn't matter anymore. It doesn't matter whether other people have more or less than me; that has no impact on my daily life. If I couldn't afford a fancy luxury good or a nice house on the west side because there are too many other rich people bidding on them, so be it.

Of course we all have different perspectives. There's no right or wrong answer. I just think comparison is a thief of joy. Once we FIRE, the only thing that matters is enjoying the time we have left. Leave the rest of the stuff behind because they just don't matter. YMMV of course.
 
...not every rich person is interested in the same luxury goods or houses on the west side of LA. Not all of them live in LA or SF or NYC. This is especially true if you practice geo-arbitrage and move to a place with lower cost of living.

... It's human nature to want to be competitive. That's what drives us. But no matter how much we accumulate, there's always someone who has more than us. It's a game we can never win.

But now there's only one score I care about---how much free time I have left on the face of the earth to enjoy and do things that I want to do.

... I just think comparison is a thief of joy. Once we FIRE, the only thing that matters is enjoying the time we have left. Leave the rest of the stuff behind because they just don't matter. YMMV of course.
You are broadly speaking quite right. 2500 years of philosophy would lend salutary support.

But as you note, we wrestle and wrangle with the competitive drive. Going to the gym, one tries to exercise vigorously, to remain healthy and to get stronger. Even so, it is inevitable to be comparing oneself against other guys… who benches more, who curls more, who has bigger biceps. Smith bench presses 200 pounds. Is Smith a strong man? That depends on who at the gym, can maybe bench press 300. If most gym attendees top-out at 150, then indeed Smith is strong. Left unchecked, this yearning to compete, results in monomaniacal obsession with bulking-up, even to the detriment of the very same health, that we purportedly were trying to advance, by going to the gym in the first place.

It is the same with money, except that pursuit of money doesn’t depend on age, testosterone or genetics. In a way, that makes the money-pursuit more equitable, or more “just”. We age out of hold-my-beer masculine contests of raw physical prowess. We don’t age out of comparing our Vanguard balances. We may, in some cases, garner the wisdom to rise above such competition. Or we may not.

The geo-arbitrage is also an insightful point, but here we have a practical impediment. There is higher quality of life where there are more amenities, proximity to an international airport, balmy weather, mountains, ocean, ethnic foods and so on. These aren’t essential, but they’re nice to have. Thus the appeal of retiring in Los Angeles as opposed to say Des Moines or Peoria. Is this a puerile fascination, or as the kids say these days, peacocking? Maybe. But one likes what one likes. Suppose that one likes East European sausages, soups and caviar. Easy to find in West Hollywood. Not so easy, in West Topeka, Kansas.

As for the question of time, my view is admittedly unorthodox and dour. I place next to no value on my time. If tomorrow I find myself wearing a striped uniform, gathering garbage along the ditch adjacent to the highway, while men in mirrored sunglasses, toting rifles, oversee our gang… there wouldn’t be much failure to communicate. If that’s how my time gets spent, so be it. I have no burning alternative projects. This is also why I haven’t had particular yearning to retire! Retirement just sort-of happened. There is nothing that I was chomping to do, but couldn’t do, while still working. True, I did want to escape from some restrictions and ructions at work, or perhaps, at any workplace… but that’s more a case of “retiring from”, than “retiring too”.

Saving money, and accumulating money, has been an invariant, a constant, a sense of continuity… through employment and unemployment, youth and middle age and I guess late-middle-age (whatever it is now)…. Quite literally, in sickness and in health, for richer or for poorer. Would it be an indecorous stretch, to also wish to keep it, until death do us part?
 
Well then, are we supposed to one fine day, reverse the switch, from "grow" to "shrink"? Do we anti-save, taking from the portfolio, where earlier we always added to it? Huh? I can't wrap my head around that. I can't fathom, why we'd have saved-saved-saved, only to subsequently un-save. If I were going to spend anyway, why did I save in the first place? Why didn't I just spend, as I went along... especially when I was younger, more vigorous, more keen on travel or costly hobbies or just impressing you-know-who with bling?

No, by my reckoning, savings are a one-way street. We save, period. We don't spend - not unless tragedy or dire need overcomes us.
I thinks this is the difference between the "theory" of retirement savings and the "reality."

The "theory" is that we save and invest then retire and our "number" goes up for a while until it begins to go down toward zero as we age out. I did lots of modeling on calculators where this was true. As long as the "end point" was well beyond any reasonable life span, I knew that (by that calculator) I was probably in good shape.

BUT in "reality" it would bother me to see my "number" go down. I honestly did not expect that as I'd adjusted (I thought) to the concept that the long-term "fate" of any one person's stash was inevitably to tend toward zero - given enough time.

So there's some psychological issue superimposed on the "theory" that makes us keep trying to increase our stash. If you doubt this, then ask yourself the question: Would it bother me to see my current stash begin to fall (due to normal spending but with average market results?)
 
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