So basically only people who can SELL a ridiculously-overpriced home can afford to BUY a ridiculously-overpriced home.
Because news reporting has been so degraded, we are all left to guess at what is driving this phenomenon. IMHO, plausible contributors include:
(1) Large companies that have been buying low-end homes en masse and turning them into rentals.
(2) The explosive growth in homes converted to short-term rentals (air-bnbs).
(3) In certain cities, a large number of rich Asians have bought homes (mostly condos) that they just hold vacant, to shelter their wealth from possible government confiscation.
One thing it doesn't seem to be is a failure of housing units to keep up with number of households, at least not as the official stats appear to this uneducated eye.
Housing Units:
Housing Inventory Estimate: Total Housing Units in the United States
Households:
Total Households
I agree with your first point that only people who can sell an overpriced property can afford to buy one. It is hell for first time buyers.
Your next three points apply in some areas, but where we live in the middle of freaking nowhere, they don't really apply, at least not completely.
1. Where we live, there are a lot of properties being turned into rentals, but the owners are locals who have equity in farms and the like. They mortgage the farms to the hilt, and buy multiple houses in town as rentals. They hire someone to run the farm on a break even basis. Land here constantly rises, so they can borrow more every few years. In the endgame, they cash out the farm and move somewhere else and live off of the rental income of the houses. Whenever I read stories or opinions about how we need legislation to prevent "big companies" from buying up houses, I know that would make zero difference here.
2. STRs are a big problem in some places, but here there are very few. I know some resort areas in Colorado and Utah are now limiting the number of STRs.
3. Ummm. No. That is a California thing I think.
The driver of the housing shortage and price explosion here are:
1) Retirees fleeing urban areas by cashing out on their homes in Colorado, Utah, and California and moving to a nice rural area. (We are guilty of this.)
2) Work from home professionals moving in now that great internet is available.
3) A *massive* lack of new building due primarily to a lack of water, but also a lack of builders and labor. There is a huge labor shortage in all slices of the economy here. Skilled, unskilled, professional. It is a chicken or egg circular conundrum. Water sources can't be expanded without a bigger tax base, the tax base can't grow due to an unavailability of housing and commercial properties, the new properties can't be built due to labor shortages and a lack of water. If this were a small town in Nebraska, it would be drying up and blowing away, but because of the beauty and access to outdoor activities, it attracts retirees and work from home people, who buy the houses and drive up the prices, driving out the lower paid workers, making the labor shortage even worse.