I have been collecting bad predictions from top "experts" as a way to never listen to them and only trust myself.
Dr gloom Nouriel Roubini is a perma bear who missed the great stock performance of 1995-2000. He predicted accurately the 2008-9 debacle. He missed all the performance of 2010-2021.
=======================
Grantham + GMO is a special case for someone who was right prior to 2009, but is wrong since 2010.
2010 (
link)
"Over the next seven years, GMO forecasts large-cap U.S. stocks to deliver a real return (after inflation) of 1.3% annually, while small-caps provide a 0.5% return."
"International stocks also fare reasonably well in GMO's model, up about 4.7%, while emerging markets come in with a 3.9% annualized gain."
FD: reality(
link): SPY made 14.4%...IWM 11.9%...EEM 3%. One of the worse misses in the history of predictions.
10/2012 (
www.forbes.com/sites/schifrin/2012/10/24/jeremy-grantham-warns-2013-will-be-a-dangerous-year-for-stocks/?sh=752ba4cc7010) Jeremy Grantham Warns 2013 Will Be A Dangerous Year For Stocks:
FD: The SP500 made over 32%
2013 (
link) The S&P 500 is 75% Overvalued: GMO.....In a quarterly letter published on Monday, Ben Inker, co-head of global asset allocation at GMO said the expected rate of return on the stock market index is minus 1.3 percent per year, adjusted for inflation, for the next seven years.
2015 (
link) GMO's Jeremy Grantham has a relatively gloomy outlook for the markets and economy.
FD: wrong again and again and again. Why anybody asks his opinion?
===============
Arnott the manager of PAUIX was pretty good until 2009 claiming he has the tools, research and knowledge to predict future performance + best categories. PAUIX made only 4.5% in the last 12 years while the SP500 made 15+%. See (
link).
==================
Abby Joseph Cohen was a top dog at Goldman Sachs for years (
link)
She is famous for predicting the bull market of the 1990s early in the decade, and was named Institutional Investor's top strategist in 1998 and 1999.[2] However, she developed a reputation as a so-called "perma-bull", receiving criticism for continued bullish predictions after March 2000 as the stock market entered a dramatic decline.[7]
Her reputation was further damaged when she failed to foresee the great Bear Market of 2008. In December 2007, she predicted the S&P 500 index would rally to 1,675 in 2008, the most optimistic of 14 Wall Street forecasters. The S&P 500 traded as low as 741 by November 2008, 56% below her prediction. On March 8, 2008, Goldman Sachs announced that Cohen was being replaced by David Kostin as the bank's chief forecaster for the U.S. stock market.[8]
==================
John Bogle, Vanguard founder, also used mean reversion for forecasts, but was proven wrong. In this 04/2013 (
article)..."Look at it this way. If the dividend yield is 2 percent lower than the long-term return of 9 percent, we’ll drop to 7. It’s a deadweight loss, that dividend.
So 7 percent is a pretty good return in this day and age, because bonds are yielding maybe 2, maybe 3 percent depending on your portfolio. So stocks are really a pretty good investment for the next 10 years.
Reality: Since 2013, the SP500 made 16+% annually.
==================
Vanguard predictions from 10 years ago 01/2012(
link)...."Stock market returns. Centered in the 6%−9% return range"
Reality: The SP500 made over 16%
=====================
Prof Shiller created PE10(P/E over 10 years) which supposed to predict performance based on valuation better than PE
On 05/2012 (
article)
Question: You have become famous for your cyclically adjusted 10-year price/earnings ratio. What do the latest numbers say about future stock market returns?
Shiller: we found a correlation between that ratio and the next 10 years' return.
If you plug in today's P/E of about 22, it would be predicting something like an annualized 4% return after inflation.
FD: reality, the SP500 made 13.6% in the next 10 years (04/31/2012-04/31/2022). Let's deduct the inflation and make it 11%. It is much better than countries with lower PE10 such as Emerging markets (
link)
But wait, our "distinguish" prof completely failed. If he was off by 50%, maybe, the index did almost 3 more times than his prediction. I can't give him an F grade with a huge mistake like that, it should be lower. To be honest, Shiller should announce that CAPE is a complete failure.
===============
Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief equity strategist
Dec 31 2018: Wilson 2019 predictions(
link): S&P 500 (^GSPC) Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief equity strategist, thinks stocks will continue struggling next year. Essentially going sideways.
Reality: SP500 was up 31.5%.
January 2021 (
www.cnbc.com/video/2021/01/27/mike-wilson-says-he-expects-a-correction-in-the-sp-500.html).
APR 26 2021(
link): Time is ticking on a 10-20% market correction in the next 3 months.
June 8th 2021(
link): There will be a 10% correction in the S&P 500 by the end of 2021.
JUL 19 2021 (
link): Morgan Stanley says a 10% to 20% correction is ahead
Aug. 17, 2021,(
link): Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson said the S&P 500 could drop over 10% before the end of the year.
Nov 1, 2021 (
link) "Mike Wilson sees growing odds of a 10% to 20% correction this quarter"
Dec 7 2021 (
link) "I don't think we are out of the woods".
Reality: Wilson predicted at least 6 times for a correction. The SP500 made 28.7% in 2021 with no 10-20% correction.
FD: Reality for 2021: Michael Wilson doesn't have a clue because he keeps saying the same thing for a year. How come he still has a job after so many bad calls?
12-21-2022 (
markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/sp-500-bear-market-stocks-morgan-stanley-mike-wilson-2022-11) "You're going to make a new low some time in the first quarter, and that will be a terrific buying opportunity," the bank's CIO Mike Wilson said in an interview with CNBC."
FD: the SP500 made about 8% in Q1/2023, then kept going up and made close to 17% in the first 6 months of the year.
=====================
Tom Lee is another perma bull, just like Siegel, eventually bulls are always right, because the SP500 is up about 80% since 1980. There is no magic here.
Listen to Tom Lee (
link) on 2-25-2020. The market is buyable here. The SP500 went down another 30%.
April 1 2022(
link) "Fundstrat’s Tom Lee says the lows for 2022 are in, calls for a full risk-on rally in second half"
Reality: 2.5 months later, the SP500 was down 20%
Aug 9 2022(
video) "there was capitulation in June...the bottom is in".
Reality: the SP500 was down another 13% from Aug 09. And the bottom of 10/2022 was lower than 06/2022.
This is how you do it. You keep saying the bull is in months ahead, if the bull comes early, you claim, it's OK, it just came earlier. If the market goes down after you said it, you claim it will be up months ahead.
But, Tom Lee is an "expert" about everything.
Dec 29 2021 (
link): 'Fundstrat’s Tom Lee Can See Bitcoin Price Hitting $200K in 2022"
Reality: bitcoin fell from 46K to under 17K.
=======================
Gundlach
FEB 2022([
www.cnbc.com/2022/02/11/jeffrey-gundlach-says-the-fed-is-obviously-behind-the-curve-will-raise-rates-more-than-expected.html)
"Gundlach sees the 10-year Treasury yield...to exceed 2.5% this year. He also said, “It’s possible the 10-year takes a peek at 3%.”
Reality: the 10 year peeked at 4.2%
====================
MAR 16 2022 (
www.cnbc.com/video/2022/03/16/the-fed-is-way-behind-says-doubleline-ceo.html)
G: stocks will go higher from here
Reality: The SP500 fell about 17% by 07/2022.
==================
August 26, 2021(
www.nasdaq.com/articles/bond-king-sees-gold-pushing-higher-from-its-current-price-2021-08-26) "The dollar going down"
Reality: the Dollar went up from 08/2021 to 09/2022 by about 25%, which is a huge move.
==================
Gundlach predictions for 2019 (
www.fa-mag.com/news/how-jeffrey-gundlach-s-predictions-for-2019-turned-out-53478.html)
EM should out perform. Reality: they under performed
Stocks are value trap. Reality: 2019 was a great year for stocks, the SP500 made over 28%.
The dollar would probably weaken. It was flat
==================
Gundlach, the king (without cloths) of bonds, predicted in 2016 that the 10 year treasury to be 6% by 2021, see (
www.barrons.com/articles/gundlach-bond-yields-could-hit-6-in-five-years-1478929496) and again in 2018(
www.cnbc.com/2018/09/20/doublelines-gundlach-warns-us-treasury-yields-are-headed-higher.html).
Reality: On 12-31-2021 it was at about 1.5%
awealthofcommonsense.com
