Real Estate Prices in NorCal - 2025 Edition

Route246

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For many here not on the left coast the NorCal real estate market is probably unfamiliar in terms of pricing. We just closed on a 2100-ish sq ft original condition ranch-style home in one of the elite zip codes in what is referred to as Silicon Valley. It will need considerable facelifting and remodeling to bring it up to the neighborhood spec. The elite zip codes mostly coincide with high school test scores although the truly elite (Atherton, Hillsborough, Woodside, Portola Valley) don't matter so much as those have always been high-end enclaves for the higher income crowd. For those who know the area this is mostly referring to (south to north) Los Gatos, Saratoga, Cupertino, Los Altos Hills, Los Altos, Palo Alto, Atherton, Portola Valley, Woodside and Hillsborough. There are high-end enclaves in other cities (ex. Mountain View, Redwood City, Menlo Park, etc.) but those cities also have lower-income areas which bring the average household income down considerably. The cities named do not have much in terms of low-income residential areas.

This article on Los Altos and Palo Alto refers to recent sales in the area. The article failed to mention a home listed here on Zillow and here on Redfin that we looked at very seriously although we eventually deemed it out of our budgetary limits that was originally listed at $3,998,000 on 11/4/2024 and closed on 12/19/2024 for $5,850,000, more than $1.8M over listing price. We didn't know it was going to go that high. This is 2825 sq ft 3BR ranch style with a few things wrong with it that would need some serious facelifting on .47 acres of which much of the backyard is unusable because of drainage culvert right of way in the middle of the backyard. That nixed my wife's idea to build an ADU on the land and eventually put us out of contention (we didn't know at the time it would go for $1.8M over).

I grew up relatively modest in this area, attended the same high school as people who lived here and actually inherited 1/2 of the proceeds of a very nicely inflated home that my parents left to us so the home values were not too much of a surprise, it is just that recently the prices have been increasing at an increasing rate.

Los Altos has always been an upscale city with large average lot size (10000 sq ft). Palo Alto, on the other hand has a much smaller average lot size (6000 sq ft) and many modest neighborhoods with bungalow style homes (many 2BR 1BA), since remodeled and upgraded. Palo Alto came into prominence in the 1970s with the following timeline:

Pre-1970s: Palo Alto was a pleasant college town but relatively affordable.
Late 1970s–1980s: Prices began rising rapidly due to tech job growth and increased immigration.
1990s–2000s: Dot-com boom and global wealth funneled into Bay Area real estate.
2010s–present: Tech billionaires, venture capital, and international cash further pushed prices to extreme levels.

In short, immigration has really fueled this boom in high-end real estate prices. The area is a magnet for engineers and technology leaders and probably will continue to be as no other area seems primed to unseat it.

Steve Jobs and Mark Zuckerberg have homes in Palo Alto. If you were to drive through Palo Alto you might be surprised at how ordinary it looks as you can see this on Google street view easily.

That said, real estate in elite zip codes with large lot sizes tend to be the last properties that experience severe price decreases during corrections and downturns. Most sales are cash or mostly cash and not dependent on debt financing.
 
I live in West San Jose, (just outside Cupertino) and own a 4-plex near Willow Glen and Downtown San Jose. I follow the real estate market here pretty closely.

I agree with everything you said except I'm not sure how long this market will continue to be over priced. Prices really jumped with the success of Google, Facebook, Apple and now Nvidia. What will be the next big stock to drive prices higher? Eventually, it's going to be so expensive to live or work here that the next big tech company is going to start somewhere else.
I anticipate that prices will appreciate at the inflation rate (or more) going forward. With Prop 13 limiting houses coming on the market, back to work policies at the big companies increasing demand, and nimbyism limiting new construction, I don't anticipate and drop in prices anywhere in Silicon Valley anytime soon.

Also cash buyers have driven the market so much that we didn't see much if any price drops with the rise in interest rates.

My house and 4-plex price jumped by $200k ($400k) by Zillow and Redfin this month. Not that I believe they actually jumped 10% this month, but maybe the Nvidia buyers are in the market now.
 
Even living in Hawaii I can't think in terms of prices like these. I understand that there are people that can afford such housing, but I can't even imagine sinking that much money in a home. YMMV
 
Wow - that is insane pricing. Seems so unreal when I sit here on the other coast, then again there are cities like Manhattan and Boston where prices seem absurd to me as well.
 
Amazing prices in the San Jose area. I see where a single BR condo has an $805 HOA; and property tax close to $1000/month. That's $21600/in base cost for a condo, less utilities and insurance. Anywhere is a better value than there imo.

btw the condo is selling for well over 1m bucks.
 
Amazing prices in the San Jose area. I see where a single BR condo has an $805 HOA; and property tax close to $1000/month. That's $21600/in base cost for a condo, less utilities and insurance. Anywhere is a better value than there imo.

btw the condo is selling for well over 1m bucks.
Having visited my Brother in Law in Sunnyvale, CA where he has lived for two decades now, I have seen all this inflated growth. He is a Tax Partner for KPMG and has been for 30 years now. He's retiring and moving out because of the horrible traffic situation and wants a more balanced lifestyle. He's looking in Nevada and New Mexico. They own a rental in Santa Clara, a few blocks from the Apple monstrosity and will sell that too.

My 4 bedroom home in Texas wouldn't buy the garage in his Sunnyvale home,
 
OMG.
I turned down a job in 1987 in that area (can't remember exactly when) where I had looked seriously at properties. I was shocked then that I would have (had) to pay $140-$180K to get something reasonably nice in the Santa Teresa / Los Gatos /etc. areas. I had friends that had paid a whopping 240K for a home on a steep hillside (but with a nice view) in the Palo Alto/MountainView area. They sold it years later for north of $1 million, and I see from your post that things are just that more crazy.
 
I don’t see how any high tech worker bee engineers like I was could possibly afford to buy a house in Silicon Valley today. How the rest of the population can afford housing here is even more puzzling. It’s encouraging to see what appears to be several high rise apartments being built in San Jose but we need more. Maybe the recent sell off in high tech company stocks will start a downturn. Hiring freezes and widespread layoffs will trigger exodus from the valley just like back in 2008. Traffic did improve for a while.
 
OMG.
I turned down a job in 1987 in that area (can't remember exactly when) where I had looked seriously at properties. I was shocked then that I would have (had) to pay $140-$180K to get something reasonably nice in the Santa Teresa / Los Gatos /etc. areas. I had friends that had paid a whopping 240K for a home on a steep hillside (but with a nice view) in the Palo Alto/MountainView area. They sold it years later for north of $1 million, and I see from your post that things are just that more crazy.
I bought a 2br. condo in 3/1995 at the bottom of the market for $128k in Santa Clara. At the time I bought it my mortgage and HOA was $971, rent for an equivalent apartment was about $1k. My friends thought real estate prices were too high. I thought I would save money by paying less than rent and getting a tax deduction for the interest as long as prices didn't go down. I rented one bedroom out for most of the time I lived there for ~$500/mo. I sold it in Jan/2001 for $335k, turning my $26k down payment into $207k in less than 6 years. I almost made more money in my condo than working.
 
I live in West San Jose, (just outside Cupertino) and own a 4-plex near Willow Glen and Downtown San Jose. I follow the real estate market here pretty closely.

I agree with everything you said except I'm not sure how long this market will continue to be over priced. Prices really jumped with the success of Google, Facebook, Apple and now Nvidia. What will be the next big stock to drive prices higher? Eventually, it's going to be so expensive to live or work here that the next big tech company is going to start somewhere else.
I anticipate that prices will appreciate at the inflation rate (or more) going forward. With Prop 13 limiting houses coming on the market, back to work policies at the big companies increasing demand, and nimbyism limiting new construction, I don't anticipate and drop in prices anywhere in Silicon Valley anytime soon.

Also cash buyers have driven the market so much that we didn't see much if any price drops with the rise in interest rates.

My house and 4-plex price jumped by $200k ($400k) by Zillow and Redfin this month. Not that I believe they actually jumped 10% this month, but maybe the Nvidia buyers are in the market now.
The immigrant effect cannot be underestimated in terms of propping up these prices. If you're in the Lynbrook district and you compare prices with the Willow Glen district it is very easy to see the identical home going for $1M+ more just because of the school district. This is driven by a contagious laser-focus of immigrants who believe school district rank determines better opportunities for their children which translates into more desire to live in the Lynbrook district vs the Willow Glen district. Just next door to Lynbrook is Prospect High School where the prices are significantly lower (i.e. $500K) and Prospect test scores are not really that bad, just lower than Lynbrook. Is this irrational behavior? Probably. Will it stop? Probably not.

The big tech companies will never abandon the area en masse. There is just too much talent and VC presence here. The work from home thing is going to go away, you can see that happening now. It was fun while it lasted but it is quietly being phased out. It will take time but will soon become a competitive disadvantage if you allow people to work from home. It is a dirty little secret but it hinders productivity and eventually the big consulting companies will tell the CFOs you have to knock it off in order to remain competitive. Amazon has led the way but most of the Mag 7 are phasing it out with Amazon, Tesla and Apple leading the way. There is a lot of sniping and complaining but the fact that those big shuttle buses are now back on the freeways and expressways heading to Apple and Meta sites from SF and south SJ is telling, it is back to work or you are no longer needed here. That will help sustain these prices.

There will be inevitable corrections, no doubt about that. The difference is that these inflated prices are mostly cash purchases so even if prices collapse it is impossible for the home owner to be upside down on a mortgage which separates this from the sub-prime meltdown days. The other dead giveaway is the increased mortgage rates have had little effect on prices since most people are paying cash or putting a lot down on these purchases. Banks for loving this, too.

Regarding looking somewhere else, where else would that be? There are some areas like Austin, Research Triangle, etc. but they don't have the intellectual and VC resources that are in NorCal. Google has abandoned the Diridon mega campus project, many tech startups are abandoning SF and some of the fringe areas are also slowing down but it is still high demand in Sunnyvale, Santa Clara, San Jose, Palo Alto, Mountain View, etc. for large campus office space.
 
The immigrant effect cannot be underestimated in terms of propping up these prices. If you're in the Lynbrook district and you compare prices with the Willow Glen district it is very easy to see the identical home going for $1M+ more just because of the school district. This is driven by a contagious laser-focus of immigrants who believe school district rank determines better opportunities for their children which translates into more desire to live in the Lynbrook district vs the Willow Glen district. Just next door to Lynbrook is Prospect High School where the prices are significantly lower (i.e. $500K) and Prospect test scores are not really that bad, just lower than Lynbrook. Is this irrational behavior? Probably. Will it stop? Probably not.
This is what is happening here in Orange County, CA too. Immigrants (mostly from China) want to live in the Irvine school district. They're paying huge premiums to do so even though the surrounding schools districts are very similar.
 
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Very familiar with Los Altos/Palo Alto real estate and it truly is insane! People can take their millions off the table and move into a literal castle in 95% of the country with the money! Not my cup of tea but, clearly, it works for a lot of people!
 
Could move that $6M house into my neighborhood on a 1-acre lot and would get $500K on a good day.
I was going to say, it really puts things in perspective when a house in Silicon Valley can sell for 10x what it would sell for where I live. I could fathom 2x or maybe 3x, but 10x.
 
Very familiar with Los Altos/Palo Alto real estate and it truly is insane! People can take their millions off the table and move into a literal castle in 95% of the country with the money! Not my cup of tea but, clearly, it works for a lot of people!
This remodeled bungalow house in Palo Alto on Zillow is typical of what prices are today there. 5600 sq ft lot, 2274 sq ft 4BR 2BA 2-story built in 1925. It has a detached 1-car garage in the backyard, streetview is here. It has an unfinished basement. It is on Bryant near Oregon Expy if you know the area. These homes were never upscale and built during the roaring 20s just before the great depression. They are nothing special to look at. If you put this home in a midwest suburb it would probably be affordable for most people living in that area. The way things are now this type of home is affordable for the top 1.5% and most would probably not live here if they could afford it because for $5M you can get nicer place with 10000 sq ft lot in Los Altos. Palo Alto simply blows my mind. I grew up 5 miles from here and this area was NEVER considered upscale. Something amazing happened that is mostly unexplainable.
 
Reason number 523 why I don't live in California...but enjoy visiting. Housing prices.
Heh, heh, number 523?? I'd be thinking maybe number 1 or 2!! :cool: But YMMV.
 
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