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RetiriusMinimus

Recycles dryer sheets
Joined
Sep 29, 2021
Messages
82
Now I am finally ready to pull ye olde trigger. I’m not classic FIRE, far from it as I turn 64 in Sept and DW just turned 66. Appreciate any thoughts on adjusting things. Plan is to tell my manager Sayonara on July 1.
  • Live in HCOL area, Conn.
  • No debt.
  • Total investments at $4.6M, 35% pretax rest taxable. AA: 35% Equity, rest a mix of lots of CD’s, bonds, treasuries, etc. I shifted from 50% equity to 35% in early November. I am admittedly paranoid conservative…
  • Analysis of essential spending is approx $69K per year (we live cheap, DW dislikes flying and travel, I do my own lawn, repair my own stuff, etc. and DW is more frugal than I am…)
  • Spend does not include expected Medicare, I have company “retirement” money that can fund me to 65/Medicare. Exposed to maximum IRMAA as past 2 years have been in 37% bracket. So maybe figure $18K / year til off IRMAA.
  • Goals are to maintain spend, minor travel, help kiddos with some things.
My main question is am I too conservative with equity. I’ve run the Fido model, Firecalc, and Money Guide Pro with this pct equity and results seem fine. I’m tired of working…tired of the nonsense, and want to enjoy life…. Thank you…
 
4600/69=67 years! You could have got out a decade ago, at least. But at least you're here now. Get out and enjoy life!

To answer your question, if you can sleep easy when the market tanks, then set aside 7 or so years spending and the rest can be equities. That is, if you want to maximize expected estate value, and you don't believe it's different this time (if the long term historical ROR from equities won't be the highest of any of the asset classes).
 
Your equity allocation is not my equity allocation but so what? Some have more than you, others bailed on equities completely a while back. You're the one who needs to sleep at night with your decision.

You can well afford to retire - and you are ready.. Come in the water is fine.
 
I suspect if you run the FIRECalc analysis "Investigate changing my allocation" in the Investigate tab, you will see 100% chance of success for all possible allocations between stocks and fixed income. Or nearly so.

Stop worrying and start enjoying retired life!
 
We have less $$, have less % in equities and spend more and I sleep well at night.

You didn't mention pensions or SS.

You really need to start thinking about spending more. It is hard though.

For fun, I ran FIRECalc with $4.6m, 30% equities, 40 year time horizon, no SS or pensions and solved for safe spending at 95% success:

FIRECalc Results​

Looking for a spending level that will result in 95% success rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [done]

A spending level of $152,016 provided a success rate of 95.6% (114 total cycles, of which 5 failed). This spending level is 3.30% of your starting portfolio.
Click to expand...
sengsational nailed it. You should have retired long ago. Forget July 1... tell 'em June 1.
 
sengsational said:
4600/69=67 years! You could have got out a decade ago, at least. But at least you're here now. Get out and enjoy life!

To answer your question, if you can sleep easy when the market tanks, then set aside 7 or so years spending and the rest can be equities. That is, if you want to maximize expected estate value, and you don't believe it's different this time (if the long term historical ROR from equities won't be the highest of any of the asset classes).
Click to expand...
You are good to go! Take the plunge.

FWIW, we do what sengsational suggests...We always maintain at least 5 years of spending in money market accounts. We have a much higher equity exposure (73-75%) but so far have been good with that since I know we have what we need for the next 5+ years should the market plunge and gyrate like it's been doing. I sleep well. Lately I've been considering selling a bit and putting more in our MMarket for some bigger travel splurges and also b/c of some major renovations we're doing.

You need to do what makes it easy for you to sleep at night and it sounds like you have that plan. And you are allowed to tweak it at anytime. ;) Enjoy!
 
Thanks for the encouragement and perspectives. @pb4uski I did fail to mention SS - notwithstanding any 25% haircuts in 2034 - that combo is about $63K per year at FRA, plus $10K in a small pension. Maybe I should do as @Koolau says and tell them see ya at the end of this week...

I do feel blessed and look forward to focusing enjoying life, volunteering and so on.
 
Time to go. I assure you that if you work another few years then post here then, you will be writing of regrets. We have seen it here many times.
 
As a perspective, not recommendation, we have about half your investment stash, about 10-15k less essential spending, and I have told DW we can spend about 40% more. One key is that you don't have much time to bridge to Medicare; we retired 5-7 years earlier but I had my Texas State Employee health care for myself and DW, which was valuable. So you can take much of the healthcare problem off the table, except for the future, which you will face anyway.

I have shifted to a percentage of bonds + cash + my SS which covers essential spending plus a 15% margin. The bonds and cash cover it, for now at 55-35-10. You are way over that I think, so I suspect you are more than ready. Stocks for me are gravy/inflation but if PEs adjust the inflation factor may be overrated, for longer than is comfortable for many. There are many here 100% in stocks, but many of those have pensions plus SS and good for them (I'm referring to those who post that they use less than 0-less than 2% stock withdrawal per year since they don't need it.) And good for them. I'd just take the 100% stock in context on how much they are actually depending on stocks for yearly spend over the next 10-20 years. Until I took SS in January, I've taken 4.5-7% of porfolio to get here. Now, with SS, it's 3.3%

As Bernstein says (I think), why risk if you have it made (put more in stocks if you don't need to)? This assumes bond returns will remain stable, of course, but then the bulls are assuming they won't see a 10 year crush in stocks, a la 2000.

I make assumptions, but not those assumptions. Getting by comfortably yearly with more than we spend is not anyone's hell.
DW is younger but doesn't want to travel internationally this year, after the tariffs; I wanted her to visit her younger brother in Germany, since he has had a stroke and heart attack, but maybe next year. We may buy a used ClassB, though, which she will primarily use, since she (and I) are avid hikers here in Reno, which I think is a good idea. I have 4 years of cash saved up at 4.7%, so it's not an issue. I can just fly fish here (this is the epitome of privilege) if I don't want to go on a trip.
 
Last edited:
RetiriusMinimus said:
Now I am finally ready to pull ye olde trigger. I’m not classic FIRE, far from it as I turn 64 in Sept and DW just turned 66. Appreciate any thoughts on adjusting things. Plan is to tell my manager Sayonara on July 1.
  • Live in HCOL area, Conn.
  • No debt.
  • Total investments at $4.6M, 35% pretax rest taxable. AA: 35% Equity, rest a mix of lots of CD’s, bonds, treasuries, etc. I shifted from 50% equity to 35% in early November. I am admittedly paranoid conservative…
  • Analysis of essential spending is approx $69K per year (we live cheap, DW dislikes flying and travel, I do my own lawn, repair my own stuff, etc. and DW is more frugal than I am…)
  • Spend does not include expected Medicare, I have company “retirement” money that can fund me to 65/Medicare. Exposed to maximum IRMAA as past 2 years have been in 37% bracket. So maybe figure $18K / year til off IRMAA.
  • Goals are to maintain spend, minor travel, help kiddos with some things.
My main question is am I too conservative with equity. I’ve run the Fido model, Firecalc, and Money Guide Pro with this pct equity and results seem fine. I’m tired of working…tired of the nonsense, and want to enjoy life…. Thank you…
Click to expand...
You can apply for IRMAA reduction using SSA-44. Loss of work is an allowable reason. You will have to estimate your reduced current year (and next year) income and get a verification from your employer when you are no longer employed - then be patient - but it works. You will then need to validate your income estimate after you file 2025 taxes.
 
Congrats - looks like you’re good to go. I would consider bumping up spending $50K per year for the first few years - you have the money. Time for a new car?
 
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