Remember the basics....don’t panic

[atmsmshr]

I believe running man thinks we are around the yellow arrow on this chart (I did the crude annotation):

+1 - tend to agree with Running man, and I am usually an optimist on the economy. Not this time.

No idea how far the drop will be - there is a lot of cash still sloshing around at the moment in some sectors of the population that could be deployed on another drop (but still not enough cash for the most vulnerable hourly workers to pay rent and mortgage).

Right now, the major indicies remind me of how people chattered about NASDAQ gains in 1999, or their Zillow home values in early 2008. It is just not sustainable with the underlying fundamentals. Money supply and liquidity is being expanded, but capital is being destroyed. World wide.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

+1 - tend to agree with Running man, and I am usually an optimist on the economy. Not this time.

No idea how far the drop will be - there is a lot of cash still sloshing around at the moment in some sectors of the population that could be deployed on another drop (but still not enough cash for the most vulnerable hourly workers to pay rent and mortgage).

Right now, the major indicies remind me of how people chattered about NASDAQ gains in 1999, or their Zillow home values in early 2008. It is just not sustainable with the underlying fundamentals. Money supply and liquidity is being expanded, but capital is being destroyed. World wide.

I hear were you (and Running Man) are coming from. I am more in the camp of we will keep from having the same problem...and because of this cause a new problem. In 29-32, credit contracted immensely, i.e. a deflationary spiral. Prices fell 21% in that time frame. Those in control will do everything in their power to prevent that. We've already seen it in action, Stimulus bill I, II, III and IV on the horizon. Tons of actions by the Federal Reserve trying to keep the system liquidity in place. So much liquidity being injected that we might drown from it (i.e. massive amounts of new money supply).

All one has to do is look at the situation with states. Quite a few of them have themselves in quite a pickle, with now severely underwater pension plans that they can't modify due to law - sometimes in their constitutions. And because they have the power of taxation, they can't (at least currently) get out of it by reorganization (i.e. bankruptcy). So what happens when a number of them are faced with MASSIVE shortfalls - the federal government to the rescue? That is comical given the federal government also has massive shortfalls.

Is there a day of reckoning coming? and if so the longer it is put off the worse it will be. We may be long past the point of it being controllable - politically or socially. There are so many here (both on these boards and in the country) that think that a situation like Argentina, or Germany in the 20's, or ... can't happen here. While I know there are fundamental differences, part of me says that we can't go on like we are, and we can't "paper over" the huge societal issues we have. Things like the loss of a moral compass, societal (lack of) values, drugs, fatherless families, work ethic, a live for today we don't need to save attitude, reliance on cheap imported goods and imported labor, .. Eventually these become unsustainable, and if the collapse happens it will be MASSIVE. (Note I said if, not when. Part of me remains optimistic that we can work our way through this.)

 

[foxfirev5]

Exactly! Don't panic. I haven't even paid much attention where the DOW has been. For me my plan for financing my retirement was almost bullet proof IMO.

We have enough in cash investments to nevah have to touch our investments as long as we live. Things can happen, but we have well over 40 years, with SS and cash to live on before we would have to use investments.

Absolutely! We have a CD ladder and cash to supplement SS and a micro pension. It is good for 30 years or more with 3-4% inflation. The rest is in equities for LT care (doubtful based on family history) or legacy (Roth accounts). It's not that tough.

 

[targatom2019]

congrats to those stayed the course.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vang...nt-flinch-as-the-market-tanked-123748314.html

 

[harley]

I love it when Running Man and Running Bum start going back and forth. I lose track of who is who.

Truthfully I decreased my equity exposure recently. I have to believe that the market is in for some serious problems, and at this point we're not all that far down. I'm still selling high, just not at the top. And I was feeling (let me see, how should I put this), like I wouldn't sleep well at night with my previous allocation.

Having said that, I'm the poster boy for not being able to correctly get back into the market. I've posted about that many times. But I guess I'd rather take the potentially decreased long term returns if I don't get back in time to the freak out I'll experience if the market absolutely crashes.

I don't recommend this action, but you gotta do what you gotta do.

 

[Closet_Gamer]

congrats to those stayed the course.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vang...nt-flinch-as-the-market-tanked-123748314.html

Will be curious to see how the retail investors hold up over the next 90-120 days. As I've mentioned elsewhere, we're about to get a drum beat of actual new information as countries/geographies re-open their economies and we get to see what happens with infection rates, etc.

We're also going to get more and more data on the disease in terms of actual societal penetration, mortality & re-infection potential.

The WHO posted a one paragraph, apparently flawed, summary of a failed Remdesivir trial and the 200 Dow points evaporated.

I think this is the part where the captain comes on the speakers and says "Uh, folks, we tried to climb on top of that bad weather but air traffic control reports some severe turbulence ahead. Probably a good time to tighten down those seat belts a little bit more. The air sickness bags are in the seat in front of you. Flight attendants, please take your seats..."

 

[Oz investor]

I assume you're talking about folks still earning a living. For us long FIRE'd folks who are busy partying and withdrawing from savings, it doesn't work that way!

i guess it depends on how you party

i can easy switch from Scotch finger biscuits to Ginger Nuts and Tonic water put on the headphones , turn off the phone and have a fantastic party , i don't even need guests , less than $5 extra for the whole event

( retired but frugal )

 

[ncbill]

I assume you're talking about folks still earning a living. For us long FIRE'd folks who are busy partying and withdrawing from savings, it doesn't work that way!

C'mon, really?

Even FIRE folks have no choice but to cut consumption...right now no airline is reliable, so how much traveling can anyone do?

 

[foxfirev5]

C'mon, really?

Even FIRE folks have no choice but to cut consumption...right now no airline is reliable, so how much traveling can anyone do?

Really. In our household a dollar saved on travel results in five spent on landscaping. DW's list is growing longer every day we're SAH.

 

[RunningBum]

I love it when Running Man and Running Bum start going back and forth. I lose track of who is who.

I almost posted earlier that I hoped people wouldn't mix us up again. I remember at least twice where people didn't understand why I posted something that clearly contradicted what I had said before, and I had to point out it was not me. I didn't want it to come off as an insult to Running Man though. I have no problem with his posts, just that some of his views and methods are very different from mine. Most likely he does not want my posts to be confused with his either.

So, just remember, he's a Man, and I'm a Bum.

 

[REWahoo]

I have no problem with his posts, just that some of his views and methods are very different from mine. Most likely he does not want my posts to be confused with his either.

So, just remember, he's a Man, and I'm a Bum.

Might be easier to end the confusion by asking one of the admins to change your user name. You could always choose something with a similar meaning, like MovingA$$.

 

[RunningBum]

Might be easier to end the confusion by asking one of the admins to change your user name. You could always choose something with a similar meaning, like MovingA$$.

Not that kind of bum! Though I have been called an A$$ a few times.