Report from PIMCO seminar

[wildcat]

I was fortunate enough to have the opportunity to listen to one of PIMCO's top dogs this past week. Keep in mind that I am just the messenger but here were his main points:

- moderately bearish on the US. They seem to believe in the theory of "something has gotta give" and we could potentially begin to observe its impact over the next 3-5 years. Believes the US consumer will tire soon.

- if the housing market is not a bubble then it is wildly overpriced.

- bearish on Europe & for the most part Japan; suffer from poor demographics & structured economic/political systems.

- amazed by the rate of change in emerging economies despite the imbalances in wealth. Mentioned China, India & Central/Eastern Europe as being very ambitious and believes it is a matter of time before they catch up to the developed world. Said India's ability to do the same job for less was incredible, especially in areas of engineering, accounting (taxes) and of course customer service. For example, he has visited call centers in India where teams of people arranged to accept calls from different regions in the US. They are taught to know everything about the area people are calling from, including accents, sports teams & current weather.

- believes it is just a matter of time before Central/Eastern Europe takes business from Western Europe.

- recommended the book "The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century" by Thomas Friedman

 

[Danny]

Said India's ability to do the same job for less was incredible, especially in areas of engineering, accounting (taxes) and of course customer service. For example, he has visited call centers in India where teams of people arranged to accept calls from different regions in the US. They are taught to know everything about the area people are calling from, including accents, sports teams & current weather.

Thanks for the info wildcat..the part that bothers me are people pretending to be who they aren't....and we're supposed to trust them.

 

[wildcat]

DanTien -

You have my vote for funniest dog pic. Your dog is all ears, no pun intended.

 

[Danny]

DanTien -

You have my vote for funniest dog pic. Your dog is all ears, no pun intended.

Lily's ears perked straight up when she heard your compliment.

 

[wildcat]

Forgot to mention he believes energy prices were going still headed higher despite the recent drop.

 

[Eagle43]

- amazed by the rate of change in emerging economies despite the imbalances in wealth. Mentioned China, India & Central/Eastern Europe as being very ambitious and believes it is a matter of time before they catch up to the developed world. Said India's ability to do the same job for less was incredible, especially in areas of engineering, accounting (taxes) and of course customer service. For example, he has visited call centers in India where teams of people arranged to accept calls from different regions in the US. They are taught to know everything about the area people are calling from, including accents, sports teams & current weather.

Speaking of customer service. During Katrina, I was trying to get FIL/MIL out of New Orleans. Called American Airlines, and the rep said, "sure, we got a flight tomorrow morning out of New Orleans and it's not full." I asked him if he was sure that the airport would be open. His reply was, "Of course, why not?" At that point I accused him of being in India, since he obviously didn't know there was a storm going on. He laughed, and I hung up. Called Southwest, who assured me that New Orleans airport was closed. The FIL/MIL sage continued, but in a car by other relatives to Baton Rouge. No Indians involved.

 

[JPatrick]

The book is a pretty good read and it did have a few "wow" moments, but I would have named it - "The World Is Flat: A Really Dry and Boring History of the Twenty-first Century" by Thomas Friedman

Ah well, back to the funny papers.

 

[brewer12345]

Speaking of customer service.  During Katrina, I was trying to get FIL/MIL out of New Orleans.  Called American Airlines, and the rep said, "sure, we got a flight tomorrow morning out of New Orleans and it's not full."  I asked him if he was sure that the airport would be open.  His reply was, "Of course, why not?"  At that point I accused him of being in India, since he obviously didn't know there was a storm going on.  He laughed, and I hung up.  Called Southwest, who assured me that New Orleans airport was closed.  The FIL/MIL sage continued, but in a car by other relatives to Baton Rouge.  No Indians involved. 

Theyy don't have to be in India to be clueless. I was supposed to come home from Denver during the April blizzard. The airport was closed and the plane that was supposed to be turning around in Denverr with me in it was diverted to Chicago, yet the servicce rep was insisting I go to the airport and be waiting at the gate. They were sitting in a call center in Houston. Morons.

 

[Cut-Throat]

I was fortunate enough to have the opportunity to listen to one of PIMCO's top dogs this past week.  Keep in mind that I am just the messenger but here were his main points:

- moderately bearish on the US.  They seem to believe in the theory of "something has gotta give" and we could potentially begin to observe its impact over the next 3-5 years.  Believes the US consumer will tire soon.

- if the housing market is not a bubble then it is wildly overpriced.

- bearish on Europe & for the most part Japan; suffer from poor demographics & structured economic/political systems.

- amazed by the rate of change in emerging economies despite the imbalances in wealth.  Mentioned China, India & Central/Eastern Europe as being very ambitious and believes it is a matter of time before they catch up to the developed world.  Said India's ability to do the same job for less was incredible, especially in areas of engineering, accounting (taxes) and of course customer service.  For example, he has visited call centers in India where teams of people arranged to accept calls from different regions in the US.  They are taught to know everything about the area people are calling from, including accents, sports teams & current weather.

- believes it is just a matter of time before Central/Eastern Europe takes business from Western Europe. 

- recommended the book "The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century" by Thomas Friedman

   

I think most everyone here on this forum could have made the same predictions as these guys. In fact I have read most everything mentioned on this forum in the past 2 years.

The real scoop is the stuff we don't know. Of course when these happen, there will be folks that claimed they predicted it. :

 

[dex]

Isn't PIMCO primarily focused on bonds? I'm guessing the comments you quoted are about stocks.
What were their comments about bonds?

 

[strap hanger]

PIMCO's web page has outlook commentary from most of their major guru's including Bill Gross. Read it for yourself at www.pimco.com. Yes, it is mostly about bonds, but the general economic commentary includes stocks.

 

[mikew]

amazed by the rate of change in emerging economies despite the imbalances in wealth.  Mentioned China, India & Central/Eastern Europe as being very ambitious and believes it is a matter of time before they catch up to the developed world.  Said India's ability to do the same job for less was incredible, especially in areas of engineering, accounting (taxes) and of course customer service.  For example, he has visited call centers in India where teams of people arranged to accept calls from different regions in the US.  They are taught to know everything about the area people are calling from, including accents, sports teams & current weather.

- believes it is just a matter of time before Central/Eastern Europe takes business from Western Europe. 

Does anyone know why diversified emerging mrkt funds like VWO and EEM don't seem to invest in Eastern Europe or Russia?

Mike