Retirement trial runs are good training

[KiwiFI]

Hi from Aussie. Just found these boards, which is odd as I've been using FireCalc for quite some time.

Anyway, better late than never. Anyone else here from AU/NZ I wonder?

Mid 50s, long-time tech worker who has taken many a sabbatical as an unofficial trial run for the big dance. It's been a great way to test the waters, financially & mentally.

I'll hold off diving into where I'm at, specifically, but great to find a few like minds to discuss things with.

I do have one query re FireCalc. Does anyone use the random portfolio performance option for simulations? And if so, what have you typically used as the variance number? I really like this sim, but have a hunch that people likely don't use it much.

 

[rembrandt]

Welcome KiwiFI,

Yes it is true that retirement trial runs are good training. I took a couple that failed. I have never been to Australia but would love to go there. The Adventures of Priscilla, Queen of the Desert is one of my favorite movies. Sorry, but I cannot help you with FireCalc.

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[levindb]

I have used Monte Carlo simulations to give us some insight into the range of outcomes...and I prefer to have 90-95% confidence that I will not run out of money. Not sure I have answered you question...but it may be related.

 

[SecondCor521]

I do have one query re FireCalc. Does anyone use the random portfolio performance option for simulations? And if so, what have you typically used as the variance number? I really like this sim, but have a hunch that people likely don't use it much.

Welcome!

I don't use that option. I prefer to rely on the basic historical model that is the FIREcalc default, but I am in the US and so I think the US historical data is applicable and relevant. Since you're from AU, I can see how using something else might be more helpful.

Sorry I can't be more helpful.

 

[KiwiFI]

Thanks. You're quite right. The data is US-centric even if many here have access to the S&P, Nasdaq and so on.

It's not clear cut what the best options are using it from outside the states, so those options are the best as you mentioned. It's still a great tool with a lot of flexibility I find.

 

[Koolau]

Welcome to the Forum. We look forward to your contributions.

 

[Dtail]

From the many posts here on Firecalc, I haven't read of many folks using the Monte Carlo version of it.
Fidelity uses a Monte Carlo simulator as their standard and it is a popular choice for those who wish to see historical and Monte Carlo simulations.

 

[CO-guy]

Welcome! I've also taken several sabbaticals during my career and FIRE'd a little over a year ago.

 

[kgtest]

Took a sabbatical or I guess went part time earlier this summer, and took a break from IT last summer for a little while while I did some other things. Being a consultant has been a blessing and a curse. The flexibility is great, but sometimes not having a consistent paycheck is rough at least mentally. Financially we always come out ahead.

 

[audreyh1]

I learned about Monte Carlo analysis and saw some models early on, but I preferred the historical data. FIREcalc already contains data from the late 1800s and this includes plenty of booms busts and panics, so wild enough for me.