Roth Conversions

[Options]

The next step is to examine the impact of being incorrect in each direction. If we overestimated the rate of portfolio growth, then we should have converted up to a lower level and the impact on QOL is possibly significant (because our investments have done poorly and we gave money away that is now needed). If we underestimated the rate of growth, there are no dire consequence (because our portfolio is fat) and, while we pay more taxes than optimum (in retrospect), we're still money ahead vs our planning.
So, I'll be very conservative with these conversions.

+1
This. And Aeowyn's annual reevaluation strategy above makes sense as well (as opposed to relying blindly on i-orp's recommendations). If i-orp is an "educational tool" (much like FIDO is now), then yes I'll agree it can be educational (at most--again, like FIDO).

 

[NW-Bound]

I like i-orp a lot, the same as FIRECalc. They do not and cannot promise to give you any guarantee of the right thing to do, as that would be trying to predict the future. But they do give you a feel for how each factor would influence the result. It's up to you to tweak and modify what you have control of, in response to how the future is unfolding.

About the choice between depletion of your stash and its preservation, there is of course a compromise. You can set FIRECalc and I-ORP to save 1/2 of your stash instead of spending it all in 30 years. That should give you enough of a buffer so you will not feel broke near the end and worry about outlasting your money. And that should leave a good enough inheritance for yous heirs, plus your home.

 

[sengsational]

It's easy for me to understand and agree with all of wisdom here on this thread since i-orp was mentioned. A lot of concepts that get to the heart of using tools like i-orp. If I had to pick one idea to call-out, I'd say it's the consequences of guessing wrong on the market movement. Maybe I picked that concept because I've usually left that at a conservative level, but I didn't concentrate on what a change there would do.

This thread gave me a 'to-do' item: Change the return and see what it does to this year. Since it will be picking an optimal plan under various rates of return, if the result doesn't change what I'm going to do in the immediate future, then no need to worry to much about that variable.

 

[SoReady]

I love iOrp for a retirement calculator. Playing with the numbers seems endless! One thing I am wondering is if there is a way to save the parameters I entered so next time I want to use it I can pick up where I left off?

TIA

 

[hnzw_rui]

I love iOrp for a retirement calculator. Playing with the numbers seems endless! One thing I am wondering is if there is a way to save the parameters I entered so next time I want to use it I can pick up where I left off?

Bottom left right beside the "Run ORP" button, there's a check box for "Save Parameters".

 

[SoReady]

Bottom left right beside the "Run ORP" button, there's a check box for "Save Parameters".

Excellent! Thanks, that is exactly what I was looking for.

 

[Options]

I like i-orp a lot, the same as FIRECalc. They do not and cannot promise to give you any guarantee of the right thing to do, as that would be trying to predict the future. But they do give you a feel for how each factor would influence the result. It's up to you to tweak and modify what you have control of, in response to how the future is unfolding.

About the choice between depletion of your stash and its preservation, there is of course a compromise. You can set FIRECalc and I-ORP to save 1/2 of your stash instead of spending it all in 30 years. That should give you enough of a buffer so you will not feel broke near the end and worry about outlasting your money. And that should leave a good enough inheritance for yous heirs, plus your home.

You can do the same with FIDO (it's called "padding", or "plan b and c or whatever"), which isn't a bad idea when using any of these "educational tools". My point is, I once read somewhere you can keep beating these calculators to death until you finally make them provide you with the result you want. With these "tools", we are trying to reduce the uncertainty of the future. Uncertainty always resolves over time, which is why I like Aeowyn's strategy above of reviewing these things annually because the uncertainty of financing a lengthy retirement resolves as time progresses (mixed with samclem's post #48 on acting conseratively). This may seem obvious, but an over reliance on calculators to resolve uncertainty can lead to disastrous results.

... the consequences of guessing wrong on the market movement...

Yep. And those consequences can be huge, which is why I've never personally liked deterministic calculators. No one can predict the future. Endless research has shown that all efforts to even guess the future are futile (which is why I don't understand what all of the brouhaha is about concerning Bogle's latest prediction--he may get it right, he may get it wrong, even he has said so).

It's been said the purpose of astrology is to make forecasters look respectable. This would apply to any attempt by me to plug in future market returns in any calculator. Anything "plugged in" would be a guess, nothing more, nothing less.