S&P 500 Prediction 2024

[Gumby]

I made no judgment about the content of your post, other than to note that it is off topic for this thread. You are free to start a new thread of your own to discuss any of the issues you raised.

 

[SecondCor521]

Well, I've been in the lead for a little bit this morning. I'll expect my gold medal Fedex'ed to my home address. I know payroll already has it on file.

 

[Jerry1]

The important thing is that we’re in Mighty Mighty territory this morning.

 

[kgtest]

The important thing is that we’re in Mighty Mighty territory this morning.

Indeed! Time to hum another tune, as this baby climbs the Mighty Mighty bracket!

Should be a fun little ride, I'm guessing Summer will slow a little this year.

 

[jollystomper]

If we don't want a context discussion, my prediction is we hit around 5500, and then correct to around 4500 this year as long as nothing breaks or the FED doesn't do something crazy.

Prediction not accepted, you are 2 months late with it. Sorry.

 

[cyber888]

Every one of my points is a feeder into why we are in a situation where it seems stonks (S&P) only go up.

If we don't want a context discussion, my prediction is we hit around 5500, and then correct to around 4500 this year as long as nothing breaks or the FED doesn't do something crazy.

It's another opinion and prediction, based on nothing.
Anyone can pull out a number like 4,500 with no reason.
Some Wall st. analyst say it is going to 6,000 by December. Oh Well

 

[kgtest]

We need a 3 to 4% rise for my "prediction" to be accurate, but honestly I want sengsational to be wrong by a long shot and we see a 22% rise after 3 rate drops. Hehehe...nobody knows.

I did a quick google for highest annual sp500 returns and this list came out. So we have at least a 10 to 15% chance of THIS year being the year we see something bigger than 1933?

1928: +37.88%
1933: +46.59%
1935: +41.37%
1945: +30.72
1954: +45.02%
1958: +38.06%
1975: +31.55%
1995: +34.11%
1997: +31.01%
2013: +29.6%

If I'm an odds man I have to bet below this line here but I do believe, I misjudged the markets, As always!

 

[kgtest]

Average Stock Market Returns Per Year
Here is the summary data of average yearly returns for the S&P 500 over the last 5 years to 150 years.

Found another interesting table of averages...which means, year to year we shouldn't care, but know that over one's long life you can expect 9 to 12% returns on average.


*Years Averaged(as of the end of2023)

Stock Market Average Return per Year
(Dividends Reinvested)

Average Return with Dividends Reinvested (column2) / Inflation Adjusted (column3)

150 Years 9.262% 6.934%
100 Years 10.536% 7.398%
50 Years 11.13% 6.992%
30 Years 10.035% 7.324%
20 Years 9.693% 6.911%
10 Years 12.017% 8.933%
5 Years 14.681% 10.095%

 

[GrayHare]

fwiw, of those Big Up years, only 1928 was an election year

 

[kgtest]

fwiw, of those Big Up years, only 1928 was an election year

Ohh, a deeper dive, I like it! Well even more spectacular if we keep this pace.

 

[audreyh1]

The important thing is that we’re in Mighty Mighty territory this morning.

Yep!

 

[Enuff2Eat]

Average Stock Market Returns Per Year
Here is the summary data of average yearly returns for the S&P 500 over the last 5 years to 150 years.

Found another interesting table of averages...which means, year to year we shouldn't care, but know that over one's long life you can expect 9 to 12% returns on average.


*Years Averaged(as of the end of2023)

Stock Market Average Return per Year
(Dividends Reinvested)

Average Return with Dividends Reinvested (column2) / Inflation Adjusted (column3)

150 Years 9.262% 6.934%
100 Years 10.536% 7.398%
50 Years 11.13% 6.992%
30 Years 10.035% 7.324%
20 Years 9.693% 6.911%
10 Years 12.017% 8.933%
5 Years 14.681% 10.095%

Nice... 5, 10, 20, 30, 50, 100, 150 years averaging all ranging between 9 to 14%.

Thanks

 

[Koolau]

Nice... 5, 10, 20, 30, 50, 100, 150 years averaging all ranging between 9 to 14%.

Thanks

Heh, heh, i'm not looking beyond 5 or maybe 10, but YMMV.

 

[jollystomper]

The markets are closed tomorrow (Good Friday), so today marks the end of the 1st quarter.

The S&P 500 ends the quarter in the Mighty Mighty division, and SecondCor521 is closest for now with a guess of 5246.813 (vs. the actual 5254.35 finish)!

 

[SecondCor521]

The markets are closed tomorrow (Good Friday), so today marks the end of the 1st quarter.

The S&P 500 ends the quarter in the Mighty Mighty division, and SecondCor521 is closest for now with a guess of 5246.813 (vs. the actual 5254.35 finish)!

Oh, you wanted a guess for the end of the year, not the first quarter...?

 

[Dtail]

Oh, you wanted a guess for the end of the year, not the first quarter...?

Hey, I will take this return for the end of year result too.

 

[F.I.R.E User]

Still going with 6,000.

 

[Koolau]

I'm just impressed it's been going up! Whatever it is, I guess we'll take it. I WANT to lose this particular bet since I went glass half empty (as usual)

 

[F.I.R.E User]

I'm just impressed it's been going up! Whatever it is, I guess we'll take it. I WANT to lose this particular bet since I went glass half empty (as usual)

$1M bet?

 

[Koolau]

$1M bet?

Doughnut hole to hens teeth.

 

[Qs Laptop]

 

[jollystomper]

View attachment 49032

They're expecting to groove...

 

[Koolau]

Heh, heh, maybe they didn't read the inflation report.

 

[sengsational]

To pop-back in time to the locked-in guesses: https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/s-and-p-500-prediction-2024-a-120348-6.html#post3038257

 

[Koolau]

Heh, heh, today's results make me wonder if my pessimistic view point was overly optimistic.