S&P 500 Prediction 2025

[audreyh1]

Is there an S&P500 prediction thread for 2026?

Not yet. We usually start those at the beginning of the year when we know where the S&P500 closed for the year.

 

[TheWizard]

I think we're on track for a 6999 close on 12/31/25!

Neato!!

 

[jollystomper]

One day left in 2025!

With the S&P 500 now at 6,896.24, The current closest guess has moved back to SloHan.

It is a good bet that we will be singing "Baby You're a Rich Man" at the end of the year, but will it remain in the realm of SloHan? Or will we leap forward back into Qs Laptop range, or beyond to OnFire? We will know in less than 24 hours!

 

[SecondCor521]

To make it to 6999 I think it needs about a 1.5% gain tomorrow. Unlikely in my view, but possible.

 

[OnFire]

One day left in 2025!

With the S&P 500 now at 6,896.24, The current closest guess has moved back to SloHan.

It is a good bet that we will be singing "Baby You're a Rich Man" at the end of the year, but will it remain in the realm of SloHan? Or will we leap forward back into Qs Laptop range, or beyond to OnFire? We will know in less than 24 hours!

To make it to 6999 I think it needs about a 1.5% gain tomorrow. Unlikely in my view, but possible.

A week ago I thought we'd make it to 6999, not sure about that anymore....now I'm hoping for at least 6990.51 (no hard feelings, Qs Laptop!)

 

[SecondCor521]

One day left in 2025!

With the S&P 500 now at 6,896.24, The current closest guess has moved back to SloHan.

It is a good bet that we will be singing "Baby You're a Rich Man" at the end of the year, but will it remain in the realm of SloHan? Or will we leap forward back into Qs Laptop range, or beyond to OnFire? We will know in less than 24 hours!

Is this the first year that almost everyone (who made it before the deadline) guessed too low?

 

[audreyh1]

Is this the first year that almost everyone (who made it before the deadline) guessed too low?

I don’t think so. IIRC we had the same happen last year.

 

[SecondCor521]

I don’t think so. IIRC we had the same happen last year.

Ah, thank you.

I just guess the start of year value times 1.107 or so to reflect the long term average. I should probably come up with something more interesting, because I never win anyways.

 

[audreyh1]

Ah, thank you.

I just guess the start of year value times 1.107 or so to reflect the long term average. I should probably come up with something more interesting, because I never win anyways.

I knew we had had two very strong recovery years which is common after a strong bear year like 2022. And usually the third year is pretty mild if not slightly negative, so I used some average and came up with 2%. Obviously I was way off.

 

[jollystomper]

Is this the first year that almost everyone (who made it before the deadline) guessed too low?

In both 2023 and 2024, most guesses were too low.

2023 - only 5 guesses were above the final S&P number.
2024 - only 3 guesses were above the final S&P number.

My view is that, after a bad 2022, most folks were reluctant to expect a good year in 2023. Then in 2024, most folks figured "It went up 24%, I can't see it happening for two years in a row". In 2025, most folks figured " It rose over 20% two years in a row, I do not expect it to go nearly as high for a third year".

I will not be surprised if the majority view for 2026 will tend to be "after these last 3 years, I can't see another year of gains".

 

[TheWizard]

In both 2023 and 2024, most guesses were too low.

2023 - only 5 guesses were above the final S&P number.
2024 - only 3 guesses were above the final S&P number.

My view is that, after a bad 2022, most folks were reluctant to expect a good year in 2023. Then in 2024, most folks figured "It went up 24%, I can't see it happening for two years in a row". In 2025, most folks figured " It rose over 20% two years in a row, I do not expect it to go nearly as high for a third year".

I will not be surprised if the majority view for 2026 will tend to be "after these last 3 years, I can't see another year of gains".

We'll see...

 

[Koolau]

Is there an S&P500 prediction thread for 2026?

As it happens, yes.

S&P 500 Prediction 2026

OMG… another wild ride in 2025. A big hiccup in April, followed by a solid recovery through the rest of the year. Plenty of ups and downs, stress, and uncertainty—but we made it. So what will Santa bring in 2026? As a hopeful retiree, I’m staying optimistic. With the S&P 500 hovering around...

www.early-retirement.org

 

[bobandsherry]

FWIW, here's what the "experts" predicted for 2025. Unless the market just collapses today they clearly did a better job than the sample here. What's not shown is the big reduction many took around May on their SP500 forecast for year-end. But here we are today..... BCA Research is interesting looking in the rearview mirror.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/every-major-wall-street-analysts-s-p-500-forecast-for-2025

And here's the link for 2026 predictions by the market experts, all show continued growth (surprise - BCA Research even predicting a modest growth):

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/every-major-wall-street-analysts-sp-500-forecast-for-2026

 

[SloHan]

I am cheering Q’s Laptop or OnFire for the win

 

[OnFire]

I am cheering Q’s Laptop or OnFire for the win

Thanks, but I think you won!!!

 

[Sorcerer]

Another monster year. God bless america.

 

[jollystomper]

The results are in!

The S&P 500 closes the year at 6,845.50

Winning Division: Baby You're a Rich Man
Winning Guess for the Gold: SloHan, with 6,832, off by 13.50
Runners up:
Silver: UpQuark (6,764, off by 81.5)
Bronze: aaronc879, (6,750, off by 95.5)

Below is the final chart of the S&P 500 wanderings through the division during the year, with the guesses on the left in blue diamonds.

On to 2026!

 

[GravitySucks]

Glad I lost!

 

[Qs Laptop]

Glad I lost!

Your guess was 4999, so we are all glad you lost.
<sorry>

I missed it by 137 points.

 

[UpQuark]

If only I had invested with the optimism of my guess!

 

[Jerry1]

It was fun to watch throughout the year. Many thanks to jollystomper for the graphics and summary. Well done!

 

[audreyh1]

Congrats to Slohan, UpQuark, and aaronc879!

Too bad about the fizzle this week.

 

[TheWizard]

Congrats to Slohan, UpQuark, and aaronc879!

Too bad about the fizzle this week.

The fizzle keeps next year's RMD a bit lower...

 

[TheWizard]

The fizzle keeps next year's RMD a bit lower...

My situation nowadays is different from back in my 60s.
I have RMDs, QCDs, and very modest Roth conversions to deal with. Those are about the only adjustable things anymore.

I was only able to do a $17,000 Roth conversion this time around which is peanuts compared to approximately $1M in tax-deferred, mostly in stock funds.

Perhaps next December I'll be able to do a $25,000 Roth conversion without getting into the next higher IRMAA tier.
We'll see...

 

[ArmchairMillionaire]

My situation nowadays is different from back in my 60s.
I have RMDs, QCDs, and very modest Roth conversions to deal with. Those are about the only adjustable things anymore.

I was only able to do a $17,000 Roth conversion this time around which is peanuts compared to approximately $1M in tax-deferred, mostly in stock funds.

Perhaps next December I'll be able to do a $25,000 Roth conversion without getting into the next higher IRMAA tier.
We'll see...

We won't even be able to think about Roth conversions for most likely at least 10 years, and probably more like 17 years unless something is done about healthcare. We're keeping our MAGI to $60K (48K after mandatory withholding) in order to get ACA subsidies. I'll turn 65 in 10 years, but DW's got 17 years until Medicare.

But once we're 65...