S&P 500 Prediction 2025

S&P 500 Prediction 2025

  • 5500

    Votes: 21 19.1%
  • 5700

    Votes: 3 2.7%
  • 5800

    Votes: 6 5.5%
  • 5900

    Votes: 1 0.9%
  • 6000

    Votes: 6 5.5%
  • 6100

    Votes: 6 5.5%
  • 6200

    Votes: 8 7.3%
  • 6300

    Votes: 11 10.0%
  • 6500

    Votes: 19 17.3%
  • 6600

    Votes: 15 13.6%
  • 6700

    Votes: 4 3.6%
  • >6800

    Votes: 18 16.4%

  • Total voters
    110
  • Poll closed .
Its been a long haul since 2009, but 2020 was only 5 years ago, and 2015 was 5 years before that. When PE ratios are high, there is not much room in general to grow price without leaps in earnings. Historically, one chart read that Cap PE correlates well to market price reversion to the mean that begins when it goes too high. Looking at this, with Cap PE at 37 might indicate a breather is due for the market until this metric is in the more average range of 16 to 17, median//average. Historically we see periods like the lost decade, which I still see as very similar to the run up we have had this time. I have been advised well to keep to short term t-bills, fun times ahead. Optimistic for a 2025 year end 5400. I might get greedy if we see sub 5000 soon.
 
Its been a long haul since 2009, but 2020 was only 5 years ago, and 2015 was 5 years before that. When PE ratios are high, there is not much room in general to grow price without leaps in earnings. Historically, one chart read that Cap PE correlates well to market price reversion to the mean that begins when it goes too high. Looking at this, with Cap PE at 37 might indicate a breather is due for the market until this metric is in the more average range of 16 to 17, median//average. Historically we see periods like the lost decade, which I still see as very similar to the run up we have had this time. I have been advised well to keep to short term t-bills, fun times ahead. Optimistic for a 2025 year end 5400. I might get greedy if we see sub 5000 soon.
Since the CAPE10 ratio was developed, how many times has it been at the 16/17 historical average? My guess is once in March 2009.
It does have some relevance to be sure, but if one invested in equities based on the ratio being at the average, where would they be now, since the ratio was developed?
 
My completely arbitrary, feel free to make your own, divisional grouping of the guesses made before the deadline. The division names are based on the songs of... THE BEATLES!
MemberPredictionChange from 2024
1. Help! Division ("help me if you can the market's down... and it looks like it will go below the ground…")
AudiDudi
4167​
-29.2%​
N02L84ER
4630​
-21.3%​
turbo89
4656​
-20.8%​
Bdarr
4900​
-16.7%​
GravitySucks
4999​
-15.0%​
Ballhawker
5000​
-15.0%​
Proteus126
5200​
-11.6%​
While My Guitar Gently Weeps Division ("I look at my funds, see the money that is bleeding, while all the market gently weeps...")
pjm-7
5300​
-9.9%​
Al18
5340​
-9.2%​
GrayHare
5353.53​
-9.0%​
Out of Steam
5500​
-6.5%​
Martlet
5536​
-5.9%​
Taco
5767​
-1.9%​
frayne
5800​
-1.4%​
Something Division ("you ask me if my money's grown... I don't know-oh, I don't know!")
Jerry1
5901​
0.3%​
Dreamer
5998​
2.0%​
audreyh1
5999​
2.0%​
pacergal
6100​
3.7%​
Errollyn
6116​
4.0%​
Gremlin
6129​
4.2%​
Out-to-Lunch
6136​
4.3%​
Getting Better division (" Got to admit, the market's better, its getting better all the time...")
PatrickA5
6175​
5.0%​
ponyboy
6193​
5.3%​
aja8888
6200​
5.4%​
Diogenes
6200​
5.4%​
Enuff2Eat
6250​
6.3%​
jollystomper
6293​
7.0%​
Dtail
6294​
7.0%​
tulak
6300​
7.1%​
I Feel Fine Division ("I'm so glad, the market's doing well, made some more, I'm telling all the world")
FloridaWizard
6325​
7.5%​
VanWinkle
6346​
7.9%​
karen1972
6350​
8.0%​
HighFlight
6352​
8.0%​
sengsational
6363.63​
8.2%​
goodguy1_64
6381.57​
8.5%​
Flieger
6382​
8.5%​
Gumby
6405​
8.9%​
MuirWannabe
6423​
9.2%​
Tom52
6450​
9.7%​
Good Day Sunshine Division ("good day, stocks climb! good day, bonds high!")
mebden
6490​
10.3%​
Koolau
6500​
10.5%​
SecondCor521
6510.96​
10.7%​
ducky911
6528​
11.0%​
38Chevy454
6529​
11.0%​
Toast
6543​
11.2%​
dmpi
6562​
11.6%​
TheWizard
6608​
12.3%​
Dash man
6620​
12.6%​
Maximus
6636​
12.8%​
skipro33
6666​
13.3%​
Baby You're a Rich Man Division ("You love all your money as the market zooms up to the moon, I think you do!")
aaronc879
6750​
14.8%​
UpQuark
6764​
15.0%​
SloHan
6832​
16.2%​
Qs Laptop
6982​
18.7%​
OnFire
6999​
19.0%​

Any errors or omissions, let me know...
 
Really great stuff jollystomper.
I really appreciate your creativity.
 
Really great stuff jollystomper.
I really appreciate your creativity.
Absolutely. Very enjoyable no matter what the market does. Thank you.
 
Since the CAPE10 ratio was developed, how many times has it been at the 16/17 historical average? My guess is once in March 2009.
It does have some relevance to be sure, but if one invested in equities based on the ratio being at the average, where would they be now, since the ratio was developed?
1736797535975.png

It would appear that each time it reached the peak, it quickly dropped and not because of earnings, but due to price.....not a perfect science, but other charts do support over valuation of the markets relative to GDP and earnings, and other relevant terms. But I am just an old engineerd.
 
I missed the deadline but if I recall my methodology from last time it will be 7855. My gut say's relatively flat but since my methodology was off so much last time, I figure it's bound to be right eventually.
 
Since the CAPE10 ratio was developed, how many times has it been at the 16/17 historical average? My guess is once in March 2009.
It does have some relevance to be sure, but if one invested in equities based on the ratio being at the average, where would they be now, since the ratio was developed?
I studied market returns following each peak in the CAPE 10 back to before the great depression (using S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial averages) and with the exception of 2004, the results are uniformly poor to downright disastrous over the subsequent multi- year periods.

We don't, however, know when we've reached peak CAPE 10 until after it has happened, and therein lies the rub.

Current CAPE 10 of 37+ is indeed rarified air though, no matter how you slice it.
 
I studied market returns following each peak in the CAPE 10 back to before the great depression (using S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial averages) and with the exception of 2004, the results are uniformly poor to downright disastrous over the subsequent multi- year periods.

We don't, however, know when we've reached peak CAPE 10 until after it has happened, and therein lies the rub.

Current CAPE 10 of 37+ is indeed rarified air though, no matter how you slice it.
Don't deny that it has some relevance in an overall sense. However if one only looks to the ratio being at its average point in order to make equity investing decisions, then they would way underperform the markets.
 
I can only evaluate CAPE10 in the context of recent decades, and since 1999/2000 it has stayed extremely high most of the time. I don’t even count what happened in the last century.

Obviously there has been some major shift with many many more people/retail investors having brokerage accounts. Extremely low costs for buying securities and funds plus easy internet access to trading and information is obviously a huge part of this shift.
 
The group is collectively more pessimistic this year.

Year20252024
Number of Guesses5568
Down for the year14 (25.5%)8 (11.8%)
Up 0-6%11 (20.0%)10 (14.7%)
Up 6-10%14 (25.5%)20 (29.4%)
Up > 10%16 (29.1%)30 (44.1%)
 
The group is collectively more pessimistic this year.

Year20252024
Number of Guesses5568
Down for the year14 (25.5%)8 (11.8%)
Up 0-6%11 (20.0%)10 (14.7%)
Up 6-10%14 (25.5%)20 (29.4%)
Up > 10%16 (29.1%)30 (44.1%)
2 years of 20%+ returns will do that.
 
I read up on the trends. It’s quite common after a bear market is over to have 2 years of double digit gains. The third year however is usually much more muted. But of course there are average ranges which can be wide.
 
Monday Jan 20th 2025 is an important day. A whole new ball game. Will see how things shape. Fingers crossed for a propereous new year, new everything.
 
My completely arbitrary, feel free to make your own, divisional grouping of the guesses made before the deadline. The division names are based on the songs of... THE BEATLES!
MemberPredictionChange from 2024
1. Help! Division ("help me if you can the market's down... and it looks like it will go below the ground…")
AudiDudi
4167​
-29.2%​
N02L84ER
4630​
-21.3%​
turbo89
4656​
-20.8%​
Bdarr
4900​
-16.7%​
GravitySucks
4999​
-15.0%​
Ballhawker
5000​
-15.0%​
Proteus126
5200​
-11.6%​
While My Guitar Gently Weeps Division ("I look at my funds, see the money that is bleeding, while all the market gently weeps...")
pjm-7
5300​
-9.9%​
Al18
5340​
-9.2%​
GrayHare
5353.53​
-9.0%​
Out of Steam
5500​
-6.5%​
Martlet
5536​
-5.9%​
Taco
5767​
-1.9%​
frayne
5800​
-1.4%​
Something Division ("you ask me if my money's grown... I don't know-oh, I don't know!")
Jerry1
5901​
0.3%​
Dreamer
5998​
2.0%​
audreyh1
5999​
2.0%​
pacergal
6100​
3.7%​
Errollyn
6116​
4.0%​
Gremlin
6129​
4.2%​
Out-to-Lunch
6136​
4.3%​
Getting Better division (" Got to admit, the market's better, its getting better all the time...")
PatrickA5
6175​
5.0%​
ponyboy
6193​
5.3%​
aja8888
6200​
5.4%​
Diogenes
6200​
5.4%​
Enuff2Eat
6250​
6.3%​
jollystomper
6293​
7.0%​
Dtail
6294​
7.0%​
tulak
6300​
7.1%​
I Feel Fine Division ("I'm so glad, the market's doing well, made some more, I'm telling all the world")
FloridaWizard
6325​
7.5%​
VanWinkle
6346​
7.9%​
karen1972
6350​
8.0%​
HighFlight
6352​
8.0%​
sengsational
6363.63​
8.2%​
goodguy1_64
6381.57​
8.5%​
Flieger
6382​
8.5%​
Gumby
6405​
8.9%​
MuirWannabe
6423​
9.2%​
Tom52
6450​
9.7%​
Good Day Sunshine Division ("good day, stocks climb! good day, bonds high!")
mebden
6490​
10.3%​
Koolau
6500​
10.5%​
SecondCor521
6510.96​
10.7%​
ducky911
6528​
11.0%​
38Chevy454
6529​
11.0%​
Toast
6543​
11.2%​
dmpi
6562​
11.6%​
TheWizard
6608​
12.3%​
Dash man
6620​
12.6%​
Maximus
6636​
12.8%​
skipro33
6666​
13.3%​
Baby You're a Rich Man Division ("You love all your money as the market zooms up to the moon, I think you do!")
aaronc879
6750​
14.8%​
UpQuark
6764​
15.0%​
SloHan
6832​
16.2%​
Qs Laptop
6982​
18.7%​
OnFire
6999​
19.0%​

Any errors or omissions, let me know...
this is coool .. Thanks Jolly
 
I do wish it would go up just a tad more from its current amount, since our NW is at $4.96M. 😜 That 40-something K shortage drives me nuts.

Although, I suspect the next couple of weeks in the market are going to be a roller coaster, given the events tomorrow.
 
Back
Top Bottom