S&P 500 Prediction 2026

S&P 500 Prediction 2026

  • Total voters
    134
  • Poll closed .
E

Enuff2Eat

Full time employment: Posting here.
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OMG… another wild ride in 2025. A big hiccup in April, followed by a solid recovery through the rest of the year. Plenty of ups and downs, stress, and uncertainty—but we made it.

So what will Santa bring in 2026? As a hopeful retiree, I’m staying optimistic. With the S&P 500 hovering around 6,900, I’m calling 7,300 for 2026.
What do you think? Don’t be shy—share your take on where the S&P 500 is headed next year.

Enuff2Eat
 
FWIW... here's the link for 2026 predictions by the market experts, all show continued growth (surprise - BCA Research even predicting a modest growth):

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/every-major-wall-street-analysts-sp-500-forecast-for-2026

1767189593496.png


And for reference, the experts predictions for 2025:


1767189800544.png
 
FWIW... Reference Point on 12/31/2025, the S&P 500 stands at 6949.
-your highest increase value represents a 15% increase for 2026. - less than 2025.
7600 my guess
 
Last edited:
ncbill said:
Don't forget to discount for the loss in purchasing power from the dollar's continuing fall (~10% for 2025)
Click to expand...
And the government’s continued money printing. Corporate earnings are only part of the story. Monetary inflation in various forms of “providing needed liquidity” to banks and the markets has become the govt’s firehose when any flame at all appears, and that excess water soaks into and swells equity prices like a sponge. We aren’t getting the real growth from assets that we think we are.
 
Last edited:
6879.82 (S&P level right now) * 1.107 (10.7% long term average) = 7615.96 (rounding down slightly).
 
ncbill said:
Don't forget to discount for the loss in purchasing power from the dollar's continuing fall (~10% for 2025)
Click to expand...

While there are multiple ways to measure currency value, including against other currencies and against gold or other PM, since all my purchases are domestic and I don't own any gold, I measure the USD against my basket of goods, ie personal CPI.

My personal CPI is hard to measure for 2025 because of deliberate lifestyle creep, but historically it has been under 1%. Official CPI last 12 months is under 3%.

How did you come up with ~10%?
 
YellowSubmarine said:
FWIW... Reference Point on 12/31/2025, the S&P 500 stands at 6949.
-your highest increase value represents a 15% increase for 2026. - less than 2025.
7600 my guess
Click to expand...
What reference point is that? The day high was 6901 and it is trading below 6900 so far.
 
audreyh1 said:
I notice no negative analyst predictions for 2026. That should make everyone very, very nervous!
Click to expand...
🎯
Seems like Warren Buffett agrees with you, and is building his mountain of cash.

It’s when the herd is most confident that it is most stupid with leverage and tends to run off the cliff.🦬🦬🦬🦬🦬🦬🦬
 
SecondCor521 said:
While there are multiple ways to measure currency value, including against other currencies and against gold or other PM, since all my purchases are domestic and I don't own any gold, I measure the USD against my basket of goods, ie personal CPI.

My personal CPI is hard to measure for 2025 because of deliberate lifestyle creep, but historically it has been under 1%. Official CPI last 12 months is under 3%.

How did you come up with ~10%?
Click to expand...

For the year, the dollar is down more than 9%
 
Footnote at bottom of poll:

  • This poll will close: Mar 3, 2026.
  • Multiple votes are allowed.
  • Your vote will be publicly visible.
Poll will close March 3rd? Really? That seems a bit generous. Maybe make it January 15th?
Also, multiple votes allowed? That shouldn't be permitted.
 
If we have 6900 by the end of today, the break even point (3% inflation and 4% withdrawal) will be 7383 by 2026.
 
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