S&P 500 Prediction 2026

[freedomatlast]

8108

 

[Original Wally]

My SWAG is 7777, just because I like 7.

Flieger

Didn't Costanza want to name his kid 7?

 

[MuirWannabe]

8179! Here we go

 

[RetiredHappy]

8179! Here we go

I will root for you!

 

[Pointby2]

OK, 7,392.60, an 8% increase.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

6555

 

[Gumby]

7394

 

[ejman]

My optimism is higher than ever after such an amazing year so I forecast 5476 for 12/31/26. I see the poll starts at 6000 so I notice underlying optimism there too.

 

[RetiredHappy]

My optimism is higher than ever after such an amazing year so I forecast 5476 for 12/31/26. I see the poll starts at 6000 so I notice underlying optimism there too.

Do you do know where it ended in 2025? 5476 would not be optimism.

 

[sengsational]

6363.63

That's same guess as I made last year. I saw it in a vision. The date was 12/31, but the year was blurry That's a 7.04% haircut.

If it was random, then picking the historical average would be the most likely result. But the market isn't random, or at least I don't think it is; a bunch of big positive years means something to the coming year.

 

[ejman]

Do you do know where it ended in 2025? 5476 would not be optimism.

Yes, I do know where it ended in 2025. Perhaps you haven't experienced that occasionally the S&P 500 has a 50% + drop? I have seen at least a couple since I started investing in 1973. So, I posted a minor run of the mill 20% drop from the 2025 close. So indeed, an optimistic look it is.

 

[Enuff2Eat]

I’m curious if someone can walk through a mathematical approach for estimating the S&P 500 level in 2026. My own number was more of a random guess rather than something grounded in historical data or market fundamentals.

Enuff

 

[audreyh1]

I’m feeling a bit bearish for 2026 but I’m going to wait a few more days to come up with my guess.

In terms of a mathematical approach you just have to look at past patterns. If you can find one with two 20%+ years recovering from a bear marked followed by another strong year but below 20% (2025 was 16%) then see what happened in year 4.

 

[Enuff2Eat]

One more question: would you actually put your money where your mouth is and rebalance your portfolio based on your estimate? For example, if you truly expect a 20% drop, would you move most of your portfolio to cash? Conversely, if you predict a 20% gain, would you shift more into the Nasdaq?

No worries if this is purely for entertainment. I figured some members here—especially the hardcore scientists and engineers—might approach it more seriously. Just want to hear your thinking.

Enuff

 

[audreyh1]

One more question: would you actually put your money where your mouth is and rebalance your portfolio based on your estimate? For example, if you truly expect a 20% drop, would you move most of your portfolio to cash? Conversely, if you predict a 20% gain, would you shift more into the Nasdaq?

No worries if this is purely for entertainment. I figured some members here—especially the hardcore scientists and engineers—might approach it more seriously. Just want to hear your thinking.

Enuff

Rebalancing happens after the fact - to return your portfolio to you target AA when it deviates from that AA. If you change your allocation in anticipation of a prediction, that is not rebalancing.

Regardless I am not putting my money on anybody’s guess including my own. Just sitting on my hands as usual.

 

[Dtail]

7325.

 

[Al18]

Quote from the White Rabbit in Alice in Wonderland:

Don’t just do something, stand there.

 

[TheWizard]

Quote from the White Rabbit in Alice in Wonderland:

Don’t just do something, stand there.

Or from Jack Bogle...

 

[Qs Laptop]

I’m curious if someone can walk through a mathematical approach for estimating the S&P 500 level in 2026. My own number was more of a random guess rather than something grounded in historical data or market fundamentals.

Enuff

One way to do it is to take the estimated aggregate earnings per share of the S&P500 in 2026 and multiply it by the estimated forward PE ratio of the S&P500.

So, if you think the estimated earnings per share is $335 and the estimated forward PE ratio is 22.5% you would get an estimated closing index of 7,537.50.

Another way would be to take the S&P500 closing value on December 31st and multiply it by a random guess of how much you think the market will gain in 2026. In this instance, suppose you think the market will gain 15% in 2026. The closing price of the S&P500 on December 31 was 6,845.50. Using this formula the ending index number at the end of 2026 would be 7,872.33.

 

[Jerry1]

One more question: would you actually put your money where your mouth is and rebalance your portfolio based on your estimate? For example, if you truly expect a 20% drop, would you move most of your portfolio to cash? Conversely, if you predict a 20% gain, would you shift more into the Nasdaq?

No worries if this is purely for entertainment. I figured some members here—especially the hardcore scientists and engineers—might approach it more seriously. Just want to hear your thinking.

Enuff

I think a lot of folks here could answer a qualified yes to this question. Since they are holding their AA through good and bad, if they predict 20% down or up, they’re holding pat and rebalancing as planned.

 

[TheWizard]

I think a lot of folks here could answer a qualified yes to this question. Since they are holding their AA through good and bad, if they predict 20% down or up, they’re holding pat and rebalancing as planned.

Or, in some cases, not rebalancing at all...

 

[audreyh1]

I think a lot of folks here could answer a qualified yes to this question. Since they are holding their AA through good and bad, if they predict 20% down or up, they’re holding pat and rebalancing as planned.

Enuff2Eat was actually asking if folks would change their allocation to higher or lower % equities based on their S&P500 2026 year end guess.

 

[Qs Laptop]

One more question: would you actually put your money where your mouth is and rebalance your portfolio based on your estimate? For example, if you truly expect a 20% drop, would you move most of your portfolio to cash? Conversely, if you predict a 20% gain, would you shift more into the Nasdaq?

Enuff

I've got a fair amount of cash sitting on the sidelines. I also happen to think the market will go up in 2026, more than it did in 2025. So, yes, I will be deploying a good chunk of that cash at some point in the near future, probably after a market dip of 5% or so, which is bound to happen. I will likely add to my positions in QQQ and FXAIX.

 

[Fermion]

I've got a fair amount of cash sitting on the sidelines. I also happen to think the market will go up in 2026, more than it did in 2025. So, yes, I will be deploying a good chunk of that cash at some point in the near future, probably after a market dip of 5% or so, which is bound to happen. I will likely add to my positions in QQQ and FXAIX.

That was originally my plan. Wait for the market to go up 10% then buy in on a 5% dip. But then I got lazy and just bought in today.

 

[Gumby]

I am engaged in feverish plans to do nothing.