S&P 500 Prediction 2026

S&P 500 Prediction 2026

  • Total voters
    134
  • Poll closed .
jollystomper said:
Yes and Yes :) .

So... for my "unofficial but many seem to like it so why stop now" contest, all guesses that are timestamped by Sunday, 12/11/26 3:00am Eastern Time, are eligible. That gives one a full week of the market, and a Saturday to digest what the talking heads (Ha!) and forecasters (Ha! Ha!) are saying, to guide a prediction.

If you have posted but already want to revise your guess, just repost, I will use the latest guess you have in the thread up until the above time.

Now, back to my music library :cool:.
Click to expand...
I'm thinking 1/11/26 might be a better deadline...
😡
 
jollystomper said:
Yes and Yes :) .

So... for my "unofficial but many seem to like it so why stop now" contest, all guesses that are timestamped by Sunday, 12/11/26 3:00am Eastern Time, are eligible. That gives one a full week of the market, and a Saturday to digest what the talking heads (Ha!) and forecasters (Ha! Ha!) are saying, to guide a prediction.

If you have posted but already want to revise your guess, just repost, I will use the latest guess you have in the thread up until the above time.

Now, back to my music library :cool:.
Click to expand...
BREAKING NEWS: Due to rushing out to make a golf tee time, Jollystomper mangled the deadline, causing much weeping and gnashing of teeth across the land.

In big, bold letters, the deadline is

Sunday Morning, January 11, 2026, 3:00AM EASTERN TIME

The proper authorities have been notified, and Jollystomper will be subject to that dreaded punishment of a strongly worded letter to management.
 
ArmchairMillionaire said:
I just asked Google A.I. the following question:

"If you had to predict an exact number for the value of the S&P 500 at the end of 2026, what would that exact number be?"

It's answer was:

"While I cannot provide a definitive "exact number" for where the S&P 500 will close on December 31, 2026, the consensus average target from top Wall Street analysts is currently 7,629.
This consensus reflects a forecasted gain of roughly 11.4% from the index's 6,845.50 close at the end of 2025"

So if you want you can enter Google down as predicting 7,629. :biggrin:

(Rumor has it that the 1.8B winning Powerball numbers were chosen using A.I., but I could not verify that. The only source I could find showed an October $100K prize winner claimed she used Chat GPT to pick heGr numbers)

Source: Michigan woman who used AI to pick Powerball numbers wins $100,000 prize
Click to expand...


Google AI said 7629

hmm... wonder what Grok, Deep Seeks, Gemini , CoPilot and others AI predicted... hihihi
 
The SP500 would be at 7500 by April, 7300 by October, and 7800 by Dec 31st.
or
7300, 7500, 7000
or
7431.34, 7544.77, 7777
 
I was going to go with a 10% rise (figuring 20% or more rise then a downturn later in the year), but now I'm wondering if my bearish feelings are just for the planet and the people living on the planet, and those things (apparently) don't matter to the stock market. So probably the market will rise more than I expect.

I'll guess 8500.
 
Enuff2Eat said:
Google AI said 7629

hmm... wonder what Grok, Deep Seeks, Gemini , CoPilot and others AI predicted... hihihi
Click to expand...
The only other one of those I have easy access to is Gemini.

So I asked it the same question today.

It replied, "Predicting an exact number for the S&P 500 is famously difficult because it depends on shifting interest rates, corporate earnings, and global events. However, based on the current consensus among major financial institutions for the end of 2026, many analysts are converging around a "bottom-up" target of 7,969."

But the market had a good couple of days this week, so that's probably why Gemini's number is higher than the Google AI on Chrome.
 
I will take an analytical approach that will throw AI for a loop 😂. I turn 68 this year, so I am guessing by the end of the year a gain between 6% and 8%, with an interesting rollercoaster in between above and below that target. I pick (shakes magic 8 ball) 7337 because it is a palindrome.
 
With a little more than 12 hours until the deadline, here is a list, in username alphabetical order, of the guesses I have gleaned from this thread. I may have missed some from the wordier posts where I was not sure if a guess was being made, examples being given, or AI was being explored :) .

If any case if you are missing from the list and want to be on it, just post before the 1/11/2026 3AM deadline :cool:.
========================================================
38Chevy454 7750
Al18 6400
ArmchairMillionaire 7623
AudiDudi 6513.12
audreyh1 6500
bobandsherry 7531
CalBird 7383
Chuckanut 6842
COcheesehead 8000
Dash man 7425
Dtail 7325
ducky911 7777
ejman 5476
equakesfan 6982
F.I.R.E User 8000
Fermion 8500
Fishmasterdan 7700
Flieger 7777
freedomatlast 8108
goodguy1_64 7222.5
GravitySucks 7264
Gumby 7394
imjustawarrior 7600
Jerry1 7324
jollystomper 7337
ksr 7312
Lagniappe 8019
Markola 6000
Mr. Tightwad 6555
MuirWannabe 8179
N02L84ER 5877
Original Wally 7250
Out of Steam 6200
Out-to-Lunch 6570
PatrickA5 7711
Pointby2 7392.60
Qs Laptop 8,092
RetiredHappy 7785
SecondCor521 7577.9685
sengsational 6363.63
skipro33 7777
SloHan 7932
SnowballCamper 8899
Sojourner 7700
Sorcerer 7647
SteveTX 7676
TheWizard 7804
Toast 7892
Tom52 7850
UpQuark 8500
tulak 7535
YellowSubmarine 7600
 
jollystomper said:
With a little more than 12 hours until the deadline, here is a list, in username alphabetical order, of the guesses I have gleaned from this thread. I may have missed some from the wordier posts where I was not sure if a guess was being made, examples being given, or AI was being explored :) .

If any case if you are missing from the list and want to be on it, just post before the 1/11/2026 3AM deadline :cool:.
========================================================
38Chevy454 7750
Al18 6400
ArmchairMillionaire 7623
AudiDudi 6513.12
audreyh1 6500
bobandsherry 7531
CalBird 7383
Chuckanut 6842
COcheesehead 8000
Dash man 7425
Dtail 7325
ducky911 7777
ejman 5476
equakesfan 6982
F.I.R.E User 8000
Fermion 8500
Fishmasterdan 7700
Flieger 7777
freedomatlast 8108
goodguy1_64 7222.5
GravitySucks 7264
Gumby 7394
imjustawarrior 7600
Jerry1 7324
jollystomper 7337
ksr 7312
Lagniappe 8019
Markola 6000
Mr. Tightwad 6555
MuirWannabe 8179
N02L84ER 5877
Original Wally 7250
Out of Steam 6200
Out-to-Lunch 6570
PatrickA5 7711
Pointby2 7392.60
Qs Laptop 8,092
RetiredHappy 7785
SecondCor521 7577.9685
sengsational 6363.63
skipro33 7777
SloHan 7932
SnowballCamper 8899
Sojourner 7700
Sorcerer 7647
SteveTX 7676
TheWizard 7804
Toast 7892
Tom52 7850
UpQuark 8500
tulak 7535
YellowSubmarine 7600
Click to expand...
Do duplicates matter?

I see a couple of 7700s and a couple of 8000s.
If they're the closest, I guess we would just have a tie?

I didn't see the 2025 thread early enough to participate, so forgive my ignorance if this has already been addressed.
 
Okay, I was gonna pass, but I'll just figure around 8% growth and hope I'm low. So I'll go with 7452.
 
ArmchairMillionaire said:
Do duplicates matter?

I see a couple of 7700s and a couple of 8000s.
If they're the closest, I guess we would just have a tie?

I didn't see the 2025 thread early enough to participate, so forgive my ignorance if this has already been addressed.
Click to expand...
Duplicates are fine. This is all in fun. No real "prize" other than to claim clairvoyance for a short while :) .
 
7000. basically flat. I predict ....Tariff inflation will catchup, economy slows (poor job forecasts and consumer confidence), cost (impacts to debt) of Venezuela and maybe Greenland will scare the markets; and its a midterm election year.
 
I see I have the "honor" of being the lowest by far at 5476. I certainly hope I'm wrong by a lot... I happen to ride in the same boat as you all and my 50/50 portfolio is certainly not immune to any potential downdrafts. So I'm hoping that the sky is the limit crowd is right. But none the less I will stick to the number I originally posted.
 
jollystomper said:
Duplicates are fine. This is all in fun. No real "prize" other than to claim clairvoyance for a short while :) .
Click to expand...
A hearty hand-shake, a pat on the back and the warm glow of victory. That's the reward.
 
I don't want to make any prediction. If the market goes up, I sell covered calls. If it goes down, I sell cash-secured puts. And as the market reverses itself, my trades also reverse. Where the market ends up on 12/31/2026 does not change what I do during the year, hence I don't think about it.
 
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