So, no worries at all about SS right?

Status
Not open for further replies.
Sorry but this statement is wrong. In several ways... Do you know the actual definition of a Ponzi scheme?
If I may interject, I'm pretty sure that EastWestGal knows what a Ponzi scheme is. I'm also betting that the person who made that statement does too. But it's a good way to get the common people riled up about the issue. Sort of like calling everything you don't like "socialism".
 
Automatically cease at 115 years old? At the very least the numbers and ages of people getting SS has not been carefully monitored and recorded. Does this mean dead people or not eligible people were getting SS money? Who knows..also they do a lot of payment forecasting, does this mean the forecasts for depleting SS are not correct? I'm really surprised people are actually complaining about making sure the book work is correct.
No one is complaining about 'making sure the book work is correct.' We're complaining because DOGE has totally mischaracterized how many (dead) people are getting SS benefits - and they know it or should before deliberately alarming the general population. The SSA has known all along about the former beneficiaries in the system, and very few of them if any were getting SS benefits. DOGE is just trying to destroy confidence in SSA, some people are falling right into the grossly exaggerated nonsense...
 
I believe that there will be NO political will to do anything about SS before the surplus runs out around 2033 (give or take) and we will all take a cut. And then only the money coming in will be used to pay out benefits. That is my best case scenario guess at this point. Who knows what else will be done to it during our current iteration? I shudder to guess or think. Some people like to mention SS and the deficit and imply like it's something that can be "cut". That worries me a lot.
 
Automatically cease at 115 years old? At the very least the numbers and ages of people getting SS has not been carefully monitored and recorded. Does this mean dead people or not eligible people were getting SS money? Who knows..also they do a lot of payment forecasting, does this mean the forecasts for depleting SS are not correct? I'm really surprised people are actually complaining about making sure the book work is correct.
DOGE has fired the people who actually were investigating fraud, and by all accounts, these investigators did a very good job. Virtually everything which DOGE has claimed has been found to be either utterly false, wildly exaggerated, or has not been substantiated with hard evidence.
 
This is a somewhat interesting subject. However, Canada seems to have it sorted. When my BIL died, they stopped his Canada Pension (Their version of SS) the following month. The same for my sister when she died too.
That's how it works for normal people, yes.

But demented fraudsters do it differently. When Grandma dies in her sleep, they quietly stash her body in the basement and then continue as normal, with her monthly SS checks hitting her joint checking account each month until the automatic cutoff at age 115.
This fraud works best if the younger relatives live in the same house so that routine bills get paid as per usual...
 
DOGE has fired the people who actually were investigating fraud, and by all accounts, these investigators did a very good job. Virtually everything which DOGE has claimed has been found to be either utterly false, wildly exaggerated, or has not been substantiated with hard evidence.
So you're saying there is no waste or fraud in government to be found.... ok... :trash:
 
So you're saying there is no waste or fraud in government to be found.... ok... :trash:
DOGE doesn't have the knowledge to find the waste or fraud or abuse if they're unfamiliar with a system....trust me. I was a computer programmer for decades. You can't bring in techies that don't know a system and pretend to find waste, fraud or abuse in days or weeks....it sometimes takes months to go through systems to analyze them. Those systems already had people looking for fraud and abuse and you think DOGE can waltz in and find it in a few days or a week. Pretty unlikely. That's the big complaint. They're laying off people that already do that work.
 
There was a request earlier in this thread (here) to allow discussion of DOGE and its impact on SS. As long as the discussion remains fact based, civil and thoughtful it will continue.
 
MODERATOR NOTE - The rule about discussions concerning moderation is the same as it has always been. If you have a problem with any post that you feel violates the Community Rules, bring it to the attention of the moderators by reporting it , or you can send any of us a PM (conversation) and we will take up the question among the team. Don't post your complaint in the thread.
 
Last edited:
For perspective, that billionaire isn't getting more than.... In 2024, the maximum Social Security benefit at full retirement age is $3,822 per month.

So compared to Grandma's $1,000, I'm guessing the billionaire paid a heck of a lot more than 4x into SS than Grandma did, and a heck of a lot more in other Fed Tax.
But this is where fundamental ideology differences kick in.

If I were a billionaire, assuming I'm the same person I am now, I would be happy to get ZERO ss, so that all those grandmas can get a bit more - I won't need it! I can't possibly spend it, and I'm already busy giving it away to good charities whenever I take a break from my yacht...

But I know there are plenty who say "i paid more give me more" no matter whether it makes any difference to them or not. The people who "paid a heck of a lot" LESS need it far more.
 
History should give us a good prediction on what will happen with Social Security. Events may not repeat exactly, but they usually rhyme. For time's sake, I am going to use AI (Grok) to discover what happened during the last funding crisis. [Mod Edit]

In 1981, SS reserves dropped to the point that by 1983, checks would not be paid in the full amount.

Note that they took it that close to the line, so if history rhymes, we are talking 2030 or so before anyone even starts to do something.

Raising payroll taxes was floated with resistance but eventually decided on (11.4% 1984, 12.4$ 1990)

Phased increase of full retirement age 65 to 67 over 25+ years.

Tax benefits for high earners (not so high now though eh?)

One time COLA delay (seems minor)

Added in some Federal workers

Note that they did have a proposal way back then to bring in state and local workers but states balked, as some on here pointed out that they would do now. That didn't pass then and I guess still wouldn't pass.

Reagan floated a 1981 plan to cut benefits 10% across the board, it died fast with a 278-153 house vote against. Seems very likely any planned across the board cut would die equally fast now.

So....my prediction is:

Raise payroll taxes and/or raise or remove cap on SS taxable income
Increase full retirement age to 68, phased in somewhere
Modify COLA a little bit
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I don't know that many billionaires are actually complaining about how much they pay into SS. I'm not sure class warfare is an issue with the SS system..some people already pay more into the system than they expect to get back in return...IMO the issue with SS it how long can we keep the system going and what do we need to do to make that happen.
 
But this is where fundamental ideology differences kick in.

If I were a billionaire, assuming I'm the same person I am now, I would be happy to get ZERO ss, so that all those grandmas can get a bit more - I won't need it! I can't possibly spend it, and I'm already busy giving it away to good charities whenever I take a break from my yacht...

But I know there are plenty who say "i paid more give me more" no matter whether it makes any difference to them or not. The people who "paid a heck of a lot" LESS need it far more.
But SS was designed as a system where you get back based on what you paid in. And of course the 813 (says Forbes) billionaires in n the US can *each* make an the individual decision that you would by simply not claiming. And that would be a result in keeping with the nature of SS.
 
I don't know that many billionaires are actually complaining about how much they pay into SS. I'm not sure class warfare is an issue with the SS system..some people already pay more into the system than they expect to get back in return...IMO the issue with SS it how long can we keep the system going and what do we need to do to make that happen.
Yes, that ultimately is the issue, and I think the multiple changes predicted by fermion are likely what can and will be done to solve the problem. (I think "and" on the first of his predictions.)
 
All the government has to do is print more money to keep SS afloat. Then we get to deal with inflation.
 
If I post on these sensitive topics, I will try to hold my tongue and recommend that moderators sanction me or other offending posters and not the threads if we fail.
I would like to second this. While I understand why moderators were forced to cut certain treads short, if we totally avoid all the significant developments currently happening (especially those that impact the FIRE community), then the discussions in this forum become less interesting. There is a real cost to that as well. With that said, the problems always come from the posters (including myself). We posters will need to keep things civilized even in the heat of the discussion. If we don't, we should be sanctioned.
 
I believe that there will be NO political will to do anything about SS before the surplus runs out around 2033 (give or take) and we will all take a cut. And then only the money coming in will be used to pay out benefits. That is my best case scenario guess at this point. Who knows what else will be done to it during our current iteration? I shudder to guess or think. Some people like to mention SS and the deficit and imply like it's something that can be "cut". That worries me a lot.
As someone on TV mentioned... the SS system has added ZERO to the $36 trillion debt of the US...

It is a stand alone fund and had a big surplus that it is spending down... because the other funds borrowed that extra money earlier and now have to pay it back people keep talking about SS adding to the debt... nope, it is paying back the borrowing that is adding to the debt...
 
As someone on TV mentioned... the SS system has added ZERO to the $36 trillion debt of the US...

It is a stand alone fund and had a big surplus that it is spending down... because the other funds borrowed that extra money earlier and now have to pay it back people keep talking about SS adding to the debt... nope, it is paying back the borrowing that is adding to the debt...
The obvious potential issue with this is that regular government expenditures use SS "extra funds" as a bank to borrow from. All the money comes from the same source. Is this method sustainable,I guess we will find out.
 
Most billionaires don't draw a salary, they get stock awards, which they then borrow against so that they don't have to pay taxes. Occasionally they will sell a few hundred million worth here or there. The way to get the billionaires riled up would be to add SS taxes to capital gains. You'd get the Elons and the Larrys and Jeffs on their soapboxes in a hurry.
 
Most billionaires don't draw a salary, they get stock awards, which they then borrow against so that they don't have to pay taxes. Occasionally they will sell a few hundred million worth here or there. The way to get the billionaires riled up would be to add SS taxes to capital gains. You'd get the Elons and the Larrys and Jeffs on their soapboxes in a hurry.
Well I think you'd find a lot of citizens wouldn't be too happy with this idea...even those of us that don't have hundreds of millions.
 
Most billionaires don't draw a salary, they get stock awards, which they then borrow against so that they don't have to pay taxes. Occasionally they will sell a few hundred million worth here or there. The way to get the billionaires riled up would be to add SS taxes to capital gains. You'd get the Elons and the Larrys and Jeffs on their soapboxes in a hurry.
Popular I guess to bash billionaires but there are not enough of them to make a difference in the context of any reform.
 
But this is where fundamental ideology differences kick in.

If I were a billionaire, assuming I'm the same person I am now, I would be happy to get ZERO ss, so that all those grandmas can get a bit more - I won't need it! I can't possibly spend it, and I'm already busy giving it away to good charities whenever I take a break from my yacht...

But I know there are plenty who say "i paid more give me more" no matter whether it makes any difference to them or not. The people who "paid a heck of a lot" LESS need it far more.

"From each according to his ability, to each according to his need" :)

I have not taken it and likely will not "need" it, but when I do have to take it, since I contributed, I reserve to right to dictate how I will spend it. In our case it will likely be used to increase our warm giving to our children, for whom SS may have a different picture.

So maybe that is an option - give folks the choice to refuse to take it (maybe with some incentive), then the government can use those "I don't need it" funds in a different manner.

I agree that it is not the billionaires complaining about, but usually those who feel they have a better idea of spending other peoples money :). So I assume that means testing will come into play.. and some will be surprised at how deep that might reach. But, I am not going to get wrapped up about tomorrow, it keeps me from enjoying today - and dealing with the "worries" every day brings :).
 
I think means testing is doubtful-SS is not a welfare program.

But our progressive tax system will always grab its proportional share. Nothing has been helping do.
 
I filed at FRA + 6 months to be efficient with the annual adjustment since that also bumped up spousal benefits. As said by others, it is a personal decision based upon your situation. If I live past the breakeven point I'll be happy with the longevity.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom